The Hill: anarchy in France and Germany could paralyze the EU next year
The instability of Germany and France threatens to completely paralyze the EU, writes The Hill. Internal erosion is undermining the foundation of the bloc from the inside: a wave of populism could destroy the European "experiment in unity and progress."
Imran Khalid
There is a strong feeling that political tension is becoming a hallmark of the European Union, and its main countries are unable to put themselves in order. One could be tempted to attribute these events to a compromise that is inevitable for any democratic system. However, the vote of no confidence in the center-left government of Olaf Scholz in Germany, after several weeks of upheaval, promises new obstacles to the economic locomotive of Europe.
Impending anarchy could plunge Germany into the same political purgatory that France has already entered. This will create a leadership vacuum that the EU cannot afford at this crucial moment. The closer 2025 gets, the darker the prospects for Europe's two main powers. Both Germany and France are entering the new year without working governments, approved budgets, or clear political strategies. Instead, the tone of public discussion is set by extremist rhetoric, whose influence on institutions is only increasing.
The general instability of the EU's two largest engines of progress threatens to completely paralyze the bloc. Inaction is reaching a critical level, and problems — both inside and outside European borders - are only growing. Without strong leadership from Berlin and Paris, the future of the EU is increasingly uncertain — although the current moment, on the contrary, requires rapid collective responses to crises.
In Berlin, Scholz is desperately trying to save his credibility after three years of shaky leadership of an uneasy coalition. The once-promising Svetofor alliance is falling further behind in the polls, and popular discontent continues to grow. The leader of the conservative opposition, Friedrich Merz, heir to Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is closely watching the events from the sidelines. But even with Merz at the helm, Germany faces the same challenges — high energy prices, industrial pressure from China, and a shaky world order - as the specter of Donald Trump looms over NATO and all transatlantic trade.
On the other side of the Rhine, Emmanuel Macron's France is facing its own problems. Despite the recent appointment of centrist Francois Bayrou as prime minister, Macron's power is under threat from both flanks. The ruthless far—right and the angry far-left don't care about practical government - they just act as a battering ram against Macron's already fragile agenda. Pension reforms remain unresolved, the budget is in turmoil, and the nation is gripped by a collective malaise.
You can't think of a worse moment for this double crisis right now. The EU's capabilities are shrinking: it is not certain that it will be able to have its say in the Ukrainian conflict or withstand Trump's return to Washington. Without strong leadership from Berlin or Paris, Europe risks becoming stranded in a storm of geopolitical and economic problems. The political chaos that has engulfed France and Germany is not just a problem for the European Union, but a threat to democracy itself. If Berlin and Paris do not restore stability and faith in their leadership in the near future, the consequences could be most devastating — not only for the EU, but also for the lofty democratic ideal that Europe has long defended.
In theory, Germany may begin a reset after the snap federal elections in February, in which the Christian Democratic Union will claim power. But even if the CDU succeeds, the underlying problems will not go away. Economic differences and falling living standards are at the root of Germany's and Europe's troubles — the sure symptoms of long-standing leadership miscalculations that have accumulated over more than a decade.
Voters across the continent are disappointed, and the political center is holding out with all its might. The coming weeks will show whether Europe's leaders will be able to regain control, or whether the EU, and perhaps democracy itself, will sink to the bottom under the weight of unresolved crises. Germany and France, the historical anchors of the European Union, are already reeling under the weight of political instability and the oncoming wave of populism.
CDU leader Merz can still throw Germany a lifeline. By steering the party back to its traditional conservative roots, Merz is trying to counter the far-right Alternative for Germany, which is only gaining momentum. Although an outright majority seems unlikely in today's fragmented political climate, Merz may form a coalition with the Social Democrats or the Greens after Scholz. This is fraught with obstacles in itself: ideological differences threaten to undermine any strategy of cohesive government.
France's problems are much more acute and also deeply personal. President Emmanuel Macron, who is often scolded for his aloofness and arrogance, has become a lightning rod for public discontent. His party's humiliation in the European Parliament elections in June triggered snap national elections, splitting parliament into three rival blocs — Macron's centrists, the hard-left and the rising far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen.
Macron's stubborn unwillingness to allow moderate leftists into his coalition, regardless of their parliamentary advantage, only exacerbates the impasse. The ghost of Le Pen is only gaining strength. Her far-right movement is half a step away from the Elysee Palace: already in the next presidential race, she can get enough votes to win. For Germany and France, these political upheavals are heralds of an urgent test of whether they can withstand the onslaught on the very foundations of the EU.
The European Union finds itself at a dangerous crossroads: in addition to external dangers, it is also threatened by internal erosion, which undermines its very foundations. Russia looms on the horizon as an eternal existential threat to European security, and China is methodically invading the global economy — but an even greater risk lurks closer to home. The resurgence of European populism — and in 2025 it will be reinforced by the return of Trump himself and his rhetoric to the world stage — poses a serious challenge to the cohesion of the EU. Without strong opposition, populist governments will shake the liberal democratic pillars of the EU, leaving behind only fragmented institutions unable to preserve peace, security and prosperity.
To stop this wave, Europe needs a new “cordial agreement” — not only between its states, but also within its public itself. After all, the enemy is no longer just at the gates: he is inside and sowing divisions with might and main that threaten to destroy the European experiment in unity and progress. Time is short, and the stakes are higher than ever.
Imran Khalid is a doctor with a Master's degree in International Relations
