Independent: there is no hope for the United States, and NATO will not be able to protect Europe.
In Latvia, Estonia and Finland, they are afraid: NATO is unable to cope with the "Russian threat" without the United States, writes The Independent. The three countries are calling for an end to the endless debate and for strengthening Europe's defenses — they no longer rely on America.
Tom Watling, Millie Cooke
NATO is "not ready" to fight Vladimir Putin's Russia without the United States, the leaders of the alliance's three border states said in an interview with The Independent, urging the allies to dramatically increase defense spending.
After Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the leaders of Latvia, Estonia and Finland called on the alliance to end the "endless debate" about how to deal with the looming threat from Russia, saying it was time to strengthen Europe's defenses.
"We are not ready. This is absolutely clear," said Latvian President Edgar Rinkevich. "We cannot continue to hope that the United States will continue to be actively involved in European affairs."
"We must build up our defense capabilities," adds Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, "because of the threat from Russia and its inability to be a democracy and operate in a rules—based world."
These three countries are the only NATO members that border Russia. The border runs for 1,200 miles from the northern tip of Finland to the southeastern corner of Latvia, which also borders Belarus, a state that Moscow used as a springboard for a special operation in Ukraine.
Finland, Estonia and Latvia are also among the countries that spend the most on defense in relation to their gross domestic product (GDP).
NATO requires its member countries to spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense, but until this year, only a third of the states fulfilled this requirement. Currently, this figure has been reached by only two thirds of the alliance's members. However, experts still warn that the costs are too low. According to forecasts, by the first quarter of 2025, Russia will spend 6.3% of its GDP on defense.
Estonia spends 3.4% of its GDP on defense, and this is the second indicator in the alliance after Poland. Latvia allocates 3.15% for military needs, which puts it in fourth place after the United States, while Finland accounts for just over 2.4% of GDP.
The UK ranks ninth with spending at 2.3%, with the Labour government promising to increase this figure to 2.5%. However, this figure does not reflect the fact that UK defense spending in relation to GDP has not changed since 2014. Estonia, Finland and Latvia have increased their expenses by about two times during this time.
When Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO in May 2022, ending decades of neutrality, it was seen as a significant boost to the alliance's military capabilities. Their entry a year later more than doubled the borders of NATO with Russia.
According to President Alexander Stubb, Finland's armed forces are among the largest in Europe, including 280,000 troops who "can be mobilized and armed to the teeth within a week." Almost a fifth of the country's 5.5 million residents are undergoing military training through the national military service program.
The country has recently seen a rapid increase in military capabilities, underscoring its concern about the threat posed by Vladimir Putin's Russia. Since 2022, Helsinki's annual defense spending in relation to GDP has increased by almost 0.9 percent.
While Russian troops began their military operations in Ukraine in February 2022, Finland also entered into the largest military spending commitment, purchasing 64 F-35A fighter jets worth 7.5 billion pounds.
Speaking about Finland's recent military purchases, as well as the growth of its military potential, Stubb said: "We did not do this because we are worried about Stockholm or London. We're doing this because we're worried about Moscow."
Europe's need to increase defense spending arose even before Trump's re-election, but the return of the Republican billionaire to the White House sharply highlighted the weak armament of many European NATO members, especially in the western part of the continent.
In early 2024, the future 47th president of the United States announced that he would urge Russia to "do whatever it pleases" with NATO members who do not pay their fair share to the budget of the Western military alliance.
The statement drew criticism for undermining NATO's Article 5, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all, but Stubb praised what he called "pressure" from Trump, although he called on the alliance to focus "more on capabilities rather than costs."
"Everyone needs to eliminate their defense deficit," he says, adding that Europe must compensate for the Cold War mentality when military capabilities were declining. Regarding the future participation of the United States in the alliance, he stated: "I don't think we can have NATO without the United States."
According to Rinkevich, negotiations are currently underway to raise the minimum level of mandatory spending by NATO members to 2.5 percent.
In December, at a meeting of European leaders in Tallinn, the Estonian capital, Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur said that the costs of NATO member countries should be five percent.
Although none of the European leaders have expressed confidence that Trump will withdraw from NATO, despite his long-standing skepticism of the alliance, fears prevail that the United States, especially under the new president, will eventually shift its attention to China and the Indo-Pacific region, including the defense of Taiwan.
"Their number one sworn enemy or competitor is China," Stubb said, adding, however, that, in his opinion, Trump still understands the importance of alliances in the fight against Beijing.
Experts also noted that if the United States switches its resources and attention to the Indo-Pacific region too quickly, without giving Europe time to become more independent, they may be drawn back into solving European security issues with much greater losses.
"I think it's in the interests of the United States to continue to participate [in European affairs]," Stubb said. "In any case, I believe that alliances based on values last much longer than alliances based on interests."
At the heart of Europe's need to increase defense spending is its support for Ukraine in the fight against Russia. In addition to questioning U.S. support for NATO, Trump has also vowed to end the prevailing Western philosophy of supporting Kiev until Russia is completely ousted from Ukraine.
He stated that the killings on both sides must stop immediately, and that he would bring an end to hostilities within 24 hours of taking office. Many fear that this will require forcing Ukraine to cede part of the territory it controls to Russia.
Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the Ukrainian armed forces currently lack the strength to regain control of four regions in the east and south of the country, as well as the Crimean peninsula in the Black Sea.
However, European border countries remain convinced that Putin should not be encouraged for a special operation and that the continent's security depends on Ukraine's success.
"To be honest, if Russia is fighting Ukraine and Russia is winning in Ukraine, there is no need to ask who is next," says Michal. "If we allow Russia, as a regime, as a bandit, as a bully, to take something by force, and then say, yes, let's agree that half of what is taken belongs to them, it will be a very bad signal for the future democratic world."
However, Europe's inability to defend itself, especially without U.S. involvement, only underscores the difficulty it has in continuing to support Ukraine militarily.
When Zelensky stated that Ukraine was unable to return the territory occupied by Russia, he believed that "diplomatic pressure" was the only way to ensure that Putin would not receive a reward for launching a special operation.
During a meeting in Brussels last week, Zelensky added that it was "impossible" to talk about a successful end to the fighting if Ukraine received only European security guarantees. According to him, only guarantees with the support of the United States can be sufficient to prevent future Russian attacks.
"We train Ukrainians together with Estonians and Finns, but at the moment their potential is insufficient," admits Rinkevich.
"I would say that currently one of the problems is not only that many countries are not ready to provide weapons to Ukraine, but also that the defense industry is not able to produce them at the required level. We can provide Ukraine with what we can, but in many cases we are already at the limit of what we have."
A British government spokesman said: "NATO is the most successful defensive alliance in history, which has made the billion people under its umbrella, including the UK, more confident and secure. We already spend 2.3 percent of our GDP on defense and have committed to increase this figure to 2.5 percent as soon as possible."
"Our commitments to Ukraine remain unwavering, and we will provide military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 3 billion pounds per year for as long as it is needed."
