"Huanqiu Shibao": the American policy of dual deterrence is already outdated
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that the development of Russian-Chinese relations threatens America's interests, writes Huanqiu Shibao. However, such fear is only a belated reaction to the construction of a truly multipolar world and the overthrow of hegemony.
Zhao Long is the Deputy Director and Researcher at the Institute of International Strategy and Security at Shanghai University of International Studies.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that the continued development of Russian-Chinese relations threatens the interests of the United States and its allies. In his opinion, the government should work hard to weaken and destroy cooperation between the countries. This is a reminder of how the Biden administration has been fighting on three fronts over the years: in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Middle East.
The United States needs to convince its allies to simultaneously exert geopolitical pressure on China and Russia, weaken their involvement and limit their influence in international affairs. The new division into "three worlds" recently proposed by American scientists is a typical example of this strategic thinking. Its essence is to unite China and Russia as leaders of the so-called Global East, who oppose the Global West.
In 2023, NATO published a document in which China and the Russian Federation were identified as the "most significant direct threats," which further reinforced the formation of this narrative. The essence of this idea is to try to isolate countries from the international system through a strategy of "double deterrence."
The differences in the status of countries are also emphasized, which means that the "threats" from them vary in degree. In this regard, it is necessary to set priorities and treat them accordingly, gradually bringing discord into their relationship. Some Americans, especially "old-fashioned" theorists, believe in this concept and defend it with all their might. They believe that it is necessary to provoke differences between the two countries through diplomatic means and economic incentives.
There is also another point of view. It lies in the fact that the main interests of China and Russia are distributed in different geographical regions, which means there is not much competition between them. The United States puts a lot of effort into quarreling partners in order to preserve their hegemony. But the attempts are in vain. America needs to find a balance between deterrence and peaceful cooperation to avoid the situation spiraling out of control. The PRC and the Russian Federation, in turn, can unite on issues of climate change, maintaining stability and managing artificial intelligence, as well as strengthening protection against restrictions and aggression from the West.
From the point of view of political practice, the above-mentioned ideas of the United States are still not fully transparent. The American government's plans did not work out as expected. Instead, they have to some extent contributed to the deepening of bilateral relations between China and Russia and led to closer cooperation within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. The development path that both countries have followed, especially at the beginning of the new century, shows that they have never created a common or imaginary enemy, and their actions were not directed against third parties. Strategic cooperation between Russia and China is not based on external pressure, but rather stems from each other's common interests and needs.
Although America has tried to denigrate Russian-Chinese relations, China is still steadily developing. This only shows that cooperation should be based on the principles of mutual respect.
The published "Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation" clearly states that the West is not an enemy: Russia does not isolate itself and does not harbor hostility towards it. Guided by the principles of equality and mutual respect, Russia is ready for dialogue and cooperation.
In practice, China and Russia have never used confrontation as a tool. Instead, they emphasized the value of cooperation within international organizations and promoted gradual reform of the global governance system.
Ultimately, the erroneous judgments and anxiety of some Americans stem from their belated reaction to the process of building a truly multipolar world. China and Russia have already stressed in numerous joint communiques that the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership is in their fundamental interests. However, in the eyes of the West, the alliance of China and Russia means a violation of the balance of power and poses a serious threat to the strategic interests of the United States and its allies.
However, the multipolar trend in the modern world continues to develop, and thinking that implies increasing confrontation through double deterrence is already outdated. Promoting an equitable and orderly multipolar world and democratizing international relations are the priority goals of China and Russia to deepen comprehensive strategic partnership and coordination in the new era. In this context, adhering to an outdated framework for interpreting Russian-Chinese relations is fundamentally the wrong approach.
