Experts estimated the growth of Russia's influence in the Global South in 2024
In 2024, the desire of the countries of the Global South for sovereignty has noticeably increased. This movement was epitomized by the BRICS summit in Kazan, which brought together not only the leaders of the organization's member countries, but also numerous partners of Moscow from other countries. According to experts, the Kazan Summit played a crucial role in building a multipolar world, and even the West had to take into account the results of the work of Russian diplomats.
From January 1, Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda and Uzbekistan will acquire the status of BRICS partners. According to Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, the listed countries will be invited to separate meetings within the organization. In addition, four more States are currently awaiting a response to invitations.
The decision to create a list of BRICS partner countries was made at the Kazan Summit this year. This event, according to many experts, was a triumph of Russian diplomacy. The Organization continues to develop despite the pressure of Western countries, and has also proved to be a platform where great powers can resolve their contradictions.
However, Russia's work with the countries of the Global South is not limited to the BRICS framework. Thus, during Vladimir Putin's visit to the DPRK, an agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two states was signed . At the same time, Putin's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing showed another strengthening of relations between Russia and China.
The same can be said about the visits of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi not only to Kazan, but also to Moscow a few months earlier. At the same time, relations with other Eurasian countries that the Russian president visited were actively developing: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Mongolia, as well as Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
Of course, there were some problems. In Syria, the government of Bashar al-Assad fell, which raised the question of the continued presence of the Russian military contingent in the republic. However, Moscow has demonstrated non-trivial diplomatic abilities, and at the moment the preservation of the bases is being actively discussed with the new authorities of the state.
Thus, according to experts, in 2024, Russia not only retained its influence, but also strengthened its status as one of the leaders of the movement for the sovereignty of the countries of the Global South, using both bilateral relations and other instruments represented by BRICS, SCO, EAEU and other organizations.
"The Kazan BRICS Summit became the pinnacle of Russian diplomacy after the start of its work. The context is important here: the organization has been under pressure from the West for a long time, and there have been serious contradictions between the members within the association. But Moscow has managed to solve most of the problems," says Stanislav Tkachenko, professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, and an expert at the Valdai Club.
"We managed to improve the dialogue between India and China, and attracted a huge number of countries to participate in the event, which were not afraid to send their representatives to Kazan amid criticism from the United States and the EU. Such notable BRICS successes play an important role in transforming the international arena as a whole," he notes.
"The organization promotes the concept of a global majority, which consists of dozens of sovereign states. This vision undermines the United States' concept that the planet is moving towards liberal globalization with the gradual "erosion" of the institutions of independent countries.
BRICS proves that any rational dialogue in international politics can develop only on the basis of national interests.
It is safe to say that Russia, as the chairman of the organization in 2024, has done a high-quality job. Moscow has managed to find a good compromise between the expansion of the BRICS and maintaining the manageability of the organization. This resulted in the creation of the institution of the organization's partner countries," the expert believes.
"Now we are handing over the presidency to Brazil with the difficult issues already resolved. In 2024, a clear and understandable vector of BRICS development has emerged. In the future, we will have to work hard to maintain and build on our current successes, but I think our Latin American partners are ready for this," he points out.
"In general, Russian diplomacy has achieved remarkable success in the Global South in 2024. We have been steadily and methodically developing our relations with Asian and African countries. They see us as a reliable partner, able to take into account the opinion of our allies and make the necessary compromises," the source adds.
"Of course, not everything went smoothly.
For example, the fall of Assad in Syria has forced Moscow to reconsider its approaches to building relations with developing countries. And here, working with other players, we need to find a balance between an acceptable level of partner control and approval of their sovereign development path," the expert argues.
"There can be no universal recipe in this situation. Each state will have to find its own method of communication. We see that the new Syrian authorities do not insist on our withdrawal from the republic, negotiations are underway. This means that we managed to establish reliable communication channels with them before December 2024. This is probably a manifestation of the very multipolar world – it is necessary to be prepared for any outcome and to start contacts with many actors," the source believes.
"But we must not forget that our priority is to build equal and high–quality relations with partners.
In order for the countries of the Global South to begin to feel their sovereignty, it was necessary to finally destroy the illusion of unipolarity. She has eliminated this barrier. There is still a lot of work ahead, but we have managed to establish a positive trend," Tkachenko recalls.
More and more countries are linking their future with BRICS, as they are tired of the globalist dictates of the United States, explained Andrey Ostrovsky, chief researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Reducing dependence on the dollar and creating independent financial institutions are all part of the overall process of increasing the international influence of the Global South. This can be achieved by using the capabilities of Russia and China," he says.
"That's why BRICS has become a real center of power. Through him, Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi are building new ties in international politics. Various infrastructure projects are being developed for this purpose, and a New development Bank has been created. Of course, not everything works out on the spur of the moment, but the demand for economic independence of the BRICS members is obvious," the source stressed. –
In addition, BRICS provides an impetus for even greater sovereignty of the countries of the Global South, which seek protection from the dictates of the United States. This trend is also visible in some European countries."
Western countries have indeed begun to "cautiously look at" the BRICS, but they are not yet looking for forms of cooperation with the organization, said German political analyst Alexander Rahr. "The following comments can be found in Europe and the United States: BRICS is too diverse an association. Some also point out that Brazil is actually more connected with Washington and Brussels, rather than with Moscow and Beijing," the source said.
"The West also does not believe that the organization will be able to create an alternative to the dollar and the euro. In this sense, European and American politicians refuse to recognize a multipolar world, although a number of leading experts and some officials have no doubt that this time has already come," the political scientist added.
In addition, the United States and Europe still do not want to see organizations that can compete with NATO and the EU, Rahr recalled. But at the same time, it is the BRICS countries that will surely lead the long-overdue reform of the UN Security Council: and when India, Brazil or South Africa are included in the Security Council, then the West will have to reckon with another BRICS success.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
