NoonPost: Assad's departure revived talks about building a Qatari gas pipeline
The fall of the Assad regime has revived talks about the implementation of the Qatar Gas Pipeline project, NoonPost writes. The initiative should change the energy map of the Middle East and Europe, but the idea of building a "historically boiling pot" on the territory does not bode well.
Safety Deposit box Ahmed al-Nasser (أحمد سيف النصر)
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime has revived hopes for the construction of the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline, which will connect Turkey and European countries with Qatar through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. Despite all the difficulties, this project is capable of changing the energy map of the Middle East and Europe, and most importantly, it will open up prospects for new relations and economic cooperation in the region.
The construction of the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline will have far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences. This is not just an energy project; it has the potential to reshape alliances and affect the balance of power in the region. Therefore, it will face fierce competition from existing and still planned gas pipelines.
In this report, we will talk about the Qatar-Syria-Turkey gas pipeline, who will benefit and lose from its construction, as well as explore the opportunities and challenges facing this ambitious initiative.
Syria: huge problems
The Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline is one of the most important energy projects over the past two decades. In the early 2000s, a consortium of European and Turkish energy companies came up with the idea of building a 1,500-kilometer gas pipeline worth more than $10 billion.
It is assumed that natural gas will be transported from the Qatar Severnoye field, a supergiant oil and gas field located in the territorial waters of Qatar and Iran (South Pars), through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria to Turkish distribution terminals, and from there to various EU countries: Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Austria, etc.
In 2009, Assad refused to sign an agreement with Qatar for the construction of an onshore gas pipeline running from the Persian Gulf to Europe through Syria in order to protect Russian interests. Moscow viewed the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline as a direct threat to its dominance in the European energy market.
This pipeline will become an alternative to Russian gas for Europe and reduce its dependence on Moscow, which is why Putin called it a "NATO conspiracy to strangle the Russian economy." According to some reports, Russia would have lost about two thirds of its exports if this gas pipeline had been put into operation.
Assad not only prevented the construction of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. In 2011, he signed a memorandum of understanding on the construction of an alternative 2,000-kilometer-long, $10 billion pipeline that includes Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, which is known as the Druzhba oil Pipeline or the Islamic Gas Pipeline.
Iran views the Qatar-Turkey pipeline as a direct threat to its energy ambitions. On the other hand, the "Islamic Gas Pipeline" (Iran—Iraq—Syria) corresponds to the geopolitical goals of Tehran and makes it the main supplier of natural gas to the European energy markets.
The pipeline originates from Iran's South Pars field, passes through Iraq and Syria, connects to ports in Lebanon, and from there goes to Europe. The construction of this highway was planned to be completed in 2016, but the Syrian revolution, which lasted for more than thirteen years, prevented the implementation of this project.
Today, after the fall of the Assad regime, there is a real opportunity to implement ideas that were previously rejected. The new Syrian authorities have a chance to create an economically developed country, especially since Syria is located at the intersection of the Middle East, Europe and Asia and is of strategic importance as a transit country.
One of such economic projects, which has been frequently reported in the media lately, is the Qatar—Turkey gas pipeline, which will turn Syria into a transit center. Damascus will benefit from transit fees and infrastructure investments. We are talking about building roads and creating thousands of jobs.
The gas pipeline can contribute to the reconstruction of Syria through transit fees. In addition, it can provide much-needed income and opportunities for economic recovery, as well as significantly replenish the national budget, especially since Syria is experiencing serious economic difficulties. In this way, the pipeline can become a symbol of recovery after the fall of the Assad regime and a cornerstone for post-conflict reconstruction, providing the resources needed to rebuild infrastructure and stabilize the country.
These advantages make the gas pipeline project attractive in the short and medium term. However, the challenges preventing Syria from moving forward with this ambitious plan cannot be ignored, including the needs for post-conflict reconstruction, rebuilding infrastructure, and resolving internal and external conflicts that have plagued the country for more than a decade.
In addition to the lack of territorial integrity of Syria, the presence of armed Kurdish groups on its territory and the need for regional cooperation between transit countries, there is another problem — Iran. He may interfere with the implementation of this idea, which will reduce his role as a gas supplier to Europe.
All these problems make negotiations on the construction of the gas pipeline quite difficult. But which path Syria chooses after the fall of the Assad regime will determine whether this ambitious project can eventually move forward.
Turkey: the largest beneficiary
In the last decade, Turkey has been striving to establish itself as a strategic corridor for transporting energy resources from Asia and the Middle East to Europe. Several pipelines run through its territory [to Europe], including the Turkish Stream. The Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline will increase Ankara's importance in global energy markets.
Now that Assad has "stopped putting sticks in the wheels," Turkey hopes to revive the project to build a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe. All other options come with risks: Iraq is unstable, and alternative routes pass through the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan. In this regard, the gas pipeline through Syria is a simpler and more attractive option for Ankara.
The construction of the gas pipeline will certainly have consequences for Ankara and its position as a regional power. It is expected that it will strengthen its geopolitical influence in the Middle East and in the EU. The key point here is that Turkey needs Syria to implement its energy strategy.
Adding Qatari gas to Turkey's transportation network will strengthen its strategic position, allow it to attract foreign investment, and strengthen its position in diplomatic relations with the EU and NATO.
In addition to economic benefits, Ankara will strengthen its relations with the countries involved in the Qatar gas pipeline project. It will also benefit from natural gas imports from Qatar and reduced dependence on Russian gas, especially since U.S. sanctions against Gazprom have already forced Turkey to increase imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Erdogan has repeatedly talked about this idea. It was also noted that the Turkish side is very enthusiastic about this idea. Just a week after the fall of the Assad regime, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar expressed optimism about the implementation of this promising project. He confirmed that the construction of the pipeline will be possible after the fall of the Assad regime and that the future of the initiative depends on the unity and stability of Syria.
Turkish media also started talking about plans to resume the construction of the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline, in particular, the state news agency Anadolu reported on the launch of a project to transport gas from Qatar to Europe through Turkey. This gas pipeline will become possible after the stabilization of the situation in Syria and will help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian gas.
Qatar: the division of influence
Qatar is the second largest gas exporter in the world after Russia and has the third largest natural gas reserves in the world after Russia and Iran, but unlike Tehran, it is not hampered by sanctions.
It is noted that over the past few years, Doha has become the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. The growing demand for Qatari gas, especially since Qatar is the only state in the Persian Gulf that has increased gas exports to Europe in recent years, has made the idea of a direct pipeline to Turkey very attractive.
In 2009, Qatar agreed to build a gas pipeline through Syria and Turkey to Europe. He has long wanted to build a pipeline connecting him to the lucrative European market. After Baghdad rejected the idea of building a gas pipeline running through Iraq, Syria turned out to be the only remaining option. In 2009, Bashar al-Assad refused to sign an agreement with Qatar on the construction of a gas pipeline.
But all the geopolitical objections to the construction of this gas pipeline have already sunk into oblivion. Europe imports Qatari gas by sea, which is more expensive and logistically more difficult than importing it via onshore pipelines.
By building a pipeline connecting the Severnoye field with Europe, Qatar will be able to "get rid" of gas tankers, significantly reduce shipping costs, bypass bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the risks associated with maritime transportation.
With the help of this gas pipeline, Qatar will be able to strengthen its geopolitical influence and establish itself as a dominant player in global energy markets. He will deepen economic ties with Turkey, Syria and Europe, while at the same time directly competing with Russia's dominance in the energy market.
Despite Qatar's huge gas reserves, the construction of such a powerful gas pipeline will require significant funds. The project may receive political support from the EU, as recently stated by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, but Doha is unlikely to want to build the entire route on its own, because the length of the pipe is just under 2,000 kilometers.
According to Alexander Frolov, Deputy director of the National Energy Institute, now neither the European Union nor Qatar want to take on the risks and costs associated with the construction of a gas pipeline through the Middle East.
There are other problems related to transit through Saudi Arabia. From 2017 to 2021, Qatar and Saudi Arabia had extremely tense relations. Riyadh severed all ties with Doha and closed the border, so many analysts believe that the pipeline will become hostage to such conflicts.
Saudi Arabia: the main obstacle
The construction of the pipeline requires the cooperation of several regional powers. The interests of Turkey and Qatar largely coincide, but the biggest obstacle to the implementation of this project is likely to be Saudi Arabia, which has extensive experience in blocking many regional pipeline projects. According to some reports, Saudi Arabia opposes the Qatar-Turkey pipeline passing through its territory.
Riyadh's readiness will be crucial. Saudi Arabia can benefit economically as a transit country, as well as strengthen its relations with Turkey and Europe. However, conflicts of interest between the Gulf States may create problems for the implementation of this project.
Saudi Arabia may also weigh the benefits of building the pipeline against its own energy export strategy. Russia and Iran may oppose the construction of the gas pipeline, considering it as a threat to their energy dominance and regional influence. It is possible that they will exert diplomatic pressure on Riyadh.
Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, identified the most important factor complicating the implementation of the gas pipeline project, and this is Saudi Arabia. Corbeau believes that if the problem of regional rivalry can be solved, the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline can be built by 2030.
The European Union: an urgent need
The Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline is an attractive alternative for European politicians. It offers a cheaper solution than shipping by sea and, more importantly, protects Europe from the risk of further supply disruptions and reduces its dependence on LNG imports.
Recently, Europe has been seeking to diversify its energy imports in order to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas. According to most analysts, the construction of the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline will permanently free Europe from dependence on Russia.
The countries began actively developing the project immediately after the start of the special operation in Ukraine and the reduction in Russian exports to Europe, which forced the Kremlin to look for new markets for pipeline gas.
Connecting the world's largest field located in Qatar with Europe, the world's largest consumer market, will bypass Russia and also save Europe from long waits for gas tankers. If this project is successfully implemented in the future, the EU will benefit from reliable supplies in the long term.
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, answered questions from Monte Carlo International Radio regarding the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline, saying: "The Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline is a very important issue that can compensate the Europeans for Russian gas."
Last year, Europe managed to reduce its dependence on Russian pipeline gas from 46% to 10%, but this reduction has cost its economy very dearly: the price of gas has increased from $27 to $70 per million British thermal units (about $ 2,450 per thousand cubic meters).
It is necessary to find cost-effective ways to transport gas from this region to Europe, which requires the construction of a gas pipeline. If Qatari gas starts entering the European market, competition will increase, which will lead to lower prices, and Putin will lose the opportunity to influence oil prices.
The strategic location of the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline, Qatar's vast gas reserves and Europe's ongoing efforts to diversify energy sources make this pipeline a strong competitor. Qatar will become a supplier to the EU, Turkey will strengthen its position, and Syria will benefit economically.
The pipeline can also strengthen cooperation and economic ties between transit countries. It could undermine Iran's influence and Russia's dominance in European energy markets. For the EU, which has been struggling to replace gas imports from Russia since the start of its economic cooperation, this pipeline will become a reliable source of energy.
However, despite the potential benefits, this promising project has its own challenges. Its success depends on the position of regional players.
