The State Department urged US citizens to leave Belarus immediately
The State Department called on US citizens to leave the territory of Belarus immediately. At the same time, the military observer of "Gazeta.Mikhail Khodarenok does not rule out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will launch a counterattack in the near future. What could be the reason for the State Department's warning, whether an attack is being prepared on Belarus and in which directions the Ukrainian Armed Forces may conduct a "Christmas counteroffensive" - in our material.
It is possible that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already announced at a meeting in his headquarters the conclusions from the situation - "the configuration of the line of contact, the staffing of enemy formations and units allows us to conclude that it is most expedient to deliver: the main blow - in the direction of Belgorod; another blow - in the direction of Sevsk-Bryansk."
Before analyzing how appropriate it is to choose the directions of the alleged attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, let us recall the so-called "Miracle on the Vistula" that occurred in 1920. The Battle of Warsaw, also known by this name, was a key battle of the Soviet-Polish War of 1919-1921, in which Poland was able not only to stop the advance of the Red Army, but also to inflict a severe defeat on it, thereby achieving a radical turning point in the course of the war. It cannot be ruled out that the memory of this unprecedented defeat of the Red Army still inspires politicians and the military in Kiev today.
Now about choosing the directions of the main and other strike of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a hypothetical offensive operation / counterstrike.
Let's assume that the enemy plans to carry it out in the Kherson, Zaporizhia regions or in one of the Donetsk directions and intends to defeat the most dangerous enemy groups, restore or improve the situation in one or two of the most important directions. Let's even imagine that the Ukrainian Armed Forces achieved a major tactical success in this case and significantly penetrated into the defense of the Russian troops.
But this result, which is generally positive for the Ukrainian army, will have absolutely no political sound. Let's assume that the units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced 15-20 km during the fighting. This news may not even get on the tapes of the world's news agencies, and if it does, it will be located far from the prime places.
Apparently, if the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is planning any kind of counterstrike/offensive operation, then all the actions of the Ukrainian army are most likely conceived from this angle.
Where is Belarus being attacked from?
Opinions are periodically voiced in the expert community of the republic that a NATO invasion of the territory of Belarus is quite possible. At the first stage, the republic's border is crossed by relatively small armed groups with the task of capturing settlements in the Kobrin district and the Belarusian Polesie.
Experts in Belarus believe that when fighting begins between these units and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, the United NATO Armed Forces will come to the aid of the separatists in order to save democracy. Then units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will join the armed struggle. Such a scenario is hypothetically quite possible, but the probability of its implementation in the foreseeable future is very, very low.
The Polish army will not move without the permission of the Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli. As far as is known, a major European war is not included in the immediate plans of the US President-elect Donald Trump.
As for the US State Department's call for American citizens to leave Belarus immediately, these actions have nothing to do with possible military actions, and among the reasons for the danger of visiting Belarus are the arbitrary application of local laws by the Belarusian authorities, the risk of detention, "Belarus' assistance to Russia in the conflict with Ukraine," potential street riots and limited assistance to US citizens. from the embassy in case of excesses.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
