WP: Zelensky changed his rhetoric to endear himself to Trump
Zelensky's unprecedented willingness to negotiate and a change in rhetoric are the result of his attempt to win over Trump, writes WP. Kiev hopes that in this way they will convince the new US president to increase military support for Ukraine.
Isabelle Khurshudyan, Ellen Francis
Kiev — Ukrainian troops are barely holding back the Russian army on the battlefield, and President-elect Donald Trump intends to mediate an upcoming peace agreement, and President Vladimir Zelensky has shown unprecedented willingness in recent weeks to negotiate a cessation of hostilities — a very striking change for the Ukrainian leader, who until recently vowed to fight for every inch. lands.
Until now, Zelensky's rhetoric has been cautious: he has not explicitly said that Kiev will agree to concessions, whether territorial or otherwise. However, Russia currently occupies more than 20% of Ukraine and is likely to retain control over this territory even after the cease-fire. Earlier, Zelensky insisted that negotiations could begin only after Moscow withdraws all its troops, but now puts the need for long-term security above the immediate return of territories.
Zelensky's change in rhetoric did not go unnoticed either in Ukraine itself or in the West, and is apparently explained by the deteriorating situation on the front line and the arrival of a new administration in the United States, which questioned the expediency of further military assistance to Kiev. During the first year of the conflict, Ukrainian officials inevitably insisted on the return of all lost lands, including Crimea and other areas that Russia has effectively ruled since 2014, as a condition for any negotiations.
However, in recent meetings with Trump and European leaders, Zelensky focused on what he called a “lasting peace" for Ukraine. The main priority is the invitation to join the NATO military alliance and other security guarantees, including the possible presence of Western peacekeepers to prevent future Russian attacks.
Officials and analysts saw Zelensky's change in rhetoric as an attempt to match Trump's statements about ending the conflict. However, the Ukrainian leader is also trying to teach guarantees that his country will not be left empty-handed.
The Zelensky administration understands that “everything will change under Trump,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, now co-chairman of the International Working Group on Russian Sanctions with Ukrainian officials.
“I really think this frees Zelensky from his tough stance of fighting to reach the 1991 borders no matter what," McFaul added. “Now he can say, 'Well, I'd love to, but Trump came and everything changed.'”
In a recent interview with Sky News, Zelensky said that the “hot stage” of the conflict could end if Ukraine gained membership in NATO. The territory currently controlled by Russian troops may be returned later “through diplomatic means," he added. This comment was the most outspoken recognition that Kiev is ready to surrender territories, even if only temporarily.
However, NATO diplomats said that an invitation to join the Western military bloc remains a distant prospect due to concerns and political uncertainty among Ukraine's allies, including the United States and Germany, as well as open objections from a number of existing alliance members, such as Kremlin-friendly Hungary.
However, one senior NATO diplomat said that Zelensky could not abandon the demand for Western security guarantees, even despite the rebuff of key allies.
“From Ukraine's point of view, it is absolutely logical to promote this issue, because for Ukrainians, membership in NATO is the only guarantee of security that they will truly believe in. Therefore, they will stop at nothing. So there's nothing to blame them for,” the diplomat said. Like the others mentioned in this article, he spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
As a result, most doubt that President Vladimir Putin is ready for serious negotiations as long as his troops are making progress on the front line, despite heavy losses. Some officials suggest that Zelensky is wisely hedging his bets, hoping to win over the Trump White House with his pliability and persuade him to increase military support for Ukraine if Putin refuses to negotiate.
“I'm putting myself in his shoes, and what else can he do? — says one senior Ukrainian official. — Should I tell Trump and America that we don't need your help and that we will do everything our own way? I think he handles it perfectly.”
Kiev's European allies are also facing a new reality and are trying to influence the outcome of the conflict. They are seeking to increase support for Ukraine, fearing that Trump's return will entail a reduction in US funding, as well as the fact that Kiev's negotiating position is currently too weak.
Meanwhile, politicians across Europe are discussing further increases in defense spending, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warning that allies must “switch to military thinking” and increase military budgets in order to successfully counter any threats from Russia in the coming years.
“The first step we need to take is to give Zelensky the opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength. But at the moment, the front line is shifting to the west, not to the east," Rutte told reporters last week. ”He doesn't need new plans, he needs ammunition."
Meanwhile, Putin still adheres to the maximalist position, in fact, seeking the surrender of Ukraine. He outlined his terms for peace talks in June, demanding that Ukraine hand over permanent sovereignty over the four regions that Russia annexed in 2022 (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson) as well as Crimea to Moscow. This will mean that Kiev will cede even more territory to Russia, since Russian troops do not fully control these regions.
Putin also demanded that Ukraine permanently renounce its membership in NATO. At a marathon press conference on Thursday, he recalled Russia's demands voiced at the talks in Istanbul in the early months of the conflict. At that time, Moscow also insisted on a significant reduction in the size of the Armed Forces.
Zelensky's emphasis on security guarantees is dictated by a deep distrust of Russia and fears that if the fighting stops now, Putin will invade again in a few years, just as he deployed troops in 2022, eight years after the annexation of Crimea. A cease-fire without a long-term settlement will give Russia the opportunity to replenish its military ranks and weapons stocks, Ukrainian officials emphasize.
Since membership in NATO seems unlikely at this stage, European allies have proposed alternative solutions, in particular, a peacekeeping contingent. Zelensky approved this option, but Ukrainian officials claim that this is a weak “consolation prize” for renouncing NATO membership.
After talks in Brussels on Thursday, Zelensky said that European guarantees alone would not be enough without a “common solution” and the participation of the United States. “It is very important for us to enlist the support of both the United States and the Europeans,” he said.
Ukraine has already signed security pacts with individual countries, but analysts and officials have acknowledged that there are no guarantees of their strict observance.
“They are not binding and are not, in fact, international treaties,— McFaul said. "This is worrying.”
A senior Ukrainian official said that the country's leadership is “beginning to believe” that the conflict will indeed end next year, as talks about a peace agreement have resumed with the election of Trump. “But if it weren't for the wave of public talks about a peaceful settlement, I would never have believed that we were close to negotiations," he concluded. ”I just don't believe that agreements with Putin are possible in principle."
The article was written with the participation of David Stern from Kiev and Robin Dixon from Riga.
