El País: The EU is preparing for negotiations on ending the conflict in Ukraine
The EU is preparing for negotiations on ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, writes El País. The allies have no doubt that Kiev will have to give up the territories, and are trying to strengthen its negotiating positions and provide security guarantees after the conflict. It's just unclear whether these guarantees will be supported by the United States.
Maria R. Sahuquillo
The EU is preparing for future negotiations on ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine amid growing uncertainty about Trump's position on the issue.
Europe is already thinking about how to "protect" Ukraine from Russia after the conflict. Negotiations on ending the nearly three-year standoff are not underway yet, but the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House may give them momentum, although it may lead to unfavorable conditions for Ukraine and the European Union. Kiev demands "security guarantees" from Europe and the United States in order to achieve "lasting peace." Ukraine's membership in NATO would be the most effective defense, since the fifth article of the NATO Charter states that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all, but so far there is strong opposition to Ukraine joining NATO. Meanwhile, some European security centers are considering other options for deploying a "security shield," for example, sending European peacekeepers to Ukraine along with a stream of Western weapons and protection from the United States.
"The conflict will end at the negotiating table, perhaps sooner than expected. Europe must prepare for this and claim a place at the negotiating table," a senior European source insists. Few doubt that in the current situation, such an agreement would entail Ukraine losing territory or at least freezing the status of Russian-occupied areas for several years.
According to a senior European official, the main disputes in the coming months will concern "security guarantees" for Ukraine, "not only to force it to accept this agreement," but above all to ensure its survival as an independent and sovereign country. This is not a new discussion. Last year, Kiev demanded similar guarantees from NATO, but only managed to force a group of countries, including Spain, to sign security commitments that are essentially guarantees of long-term military and economic support.
"The main question is whether the United States will support these security guarantees," said Louis Simon, director of the Brussels branch of the Royal Elcano Institute. There is no consensus among European allies, but various options are being discussed in some diplomatic circles and think tanks. According to Simon, a desirable scenario would be the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO and the presence of American and European troops in western Ukraine, or only European troops under the protection of the United States. An agreement is also possible that excludes Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, but provides guarantees from Washington and European powers.
"Ukraine's membership in NATO should be Europe's main goal, but there are other, less reliable, but politically more viable options," Simon said. In October, just a few days after leaving the post of NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg said that providing Ukraine with "protection" under the fifth article is possible "if there is a [demarcation] line, which is not necessarily an internationally recognized border." Trump has vowed not to involve the Americans in the war and does not seem ready to accept Kiev into the North Atlantic alliance.
Ukraine is in a critical situation. The winter has been particularly difficult due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Russia has made progress on the front, although not yet decisive. Kiev lacks soldiers, and Moscow continues to send thousands of conscripts and contract soldiers to the front. The European Union has promised to support Ukraine, which is a candidate for EU membership, at any cost, and has done so not only for its prosperity and prestige, but also for its own security. "2025 will be a crucial year," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged on Thursday.
However, no one doubts that the main decision can be made five thousand kilometers from Brussels, in Washington, where power in the White House will change on January 20. Trump promised to end the conflict in 24 hours. He did not explain how he would do it, but his public rhetoric is not encouraging.
This week, from his luxury golf club in Florida, he sent a message to Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky asking him to consider a cease-fire and cede all territories occupied by Russia. "It's strange that the Russians want to return their lands, because basically everything there has been destroyed,– Trump said. There wasn't a single whole building left. They want to rebuild the country. What is there to restore? It will take 100 years."
Despite this, some anonymous European sources believe that Trump's rhetoric is far from negative. General Keith Kellogg, whom he appointed as his envoy for Ukraine, spoke approvingly about the new arms packages from the current administration and about the permission that Joe Biden gave Kiev to attack targets on Russian territory. This underscores that Trump wants to achieve peace, but from a position of strength.
According to a senior EU official, "It is important for Trump not to make himself look weak." Europe is also trying to convince Trump that a deal beneficial to Russia could encourage China and Iran, his enemies and Kremlin allies, to tip the balance in Putin's favor. "Trump has not made a decision yet. First he says one thing, then another, so it's important to act now and get our point across," said a source in the Ukrainian government.
Ukraine's message to the EU, along with the United Kingdom and the United States, is that Ukraine needs them. "I think he [Putin] is crazy, and he understands it himself. He likes to kill. This is dangerous for everyone," Zelensky said on Thursday. The Ukrainian leader also acknowledged the harsh reality that European leaders do not publicly mention. "European security guarantees are not enough," Zelensky said after several meetings in Brussels.
Discussion of hypothetical negotiations or "security guarantees" is not public. No one wants to give Putin free rein, but the mood in Europe has changed. The leaders of the allied countries say that now it is necessary to decide what Ukraine's "victory" will be according to Kiev, then determine the terms of peace and its guarantees, including the deployment of European peacekeeping forces, which has already been proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron.
The goal now is to help Ukraine with weapons and additional funds so that it can take a stronger position at the possible negotiating table. It is necessary to make Ukraine a "tough nut", which the Kremlin will not be so easy to digest. On Wednesday, the NATO Secretary General invited Zelensky, representatives of seven European allied countries (Germany, Italy, Poland, Denmark, France, Great Britain and the Netherlands), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU President Antonio Costa to discuss the issue. Although sources present at this narrow meeting note that it was decided to increase military support and especially strengthen air defense and training programs for troops, no agreement was reached on a broader approach.
In addition, the European Union is not in the best position due to political problems in France and Germany, depletion of weapons stocks, an industry in need of a well-thought-out strategy, and limited budgets. Most countries believe that it is necessary to act gradually. According to the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, "before sending peacekeeping forces, it is necessary to achieve peace."
