Some of the Russian air defense systems based in Syria may be deployed to Libya, the Western press claims. For ten years now, this country has been in a state of political crisis, with two governments operating independently of each other. A representative of one of them criticized the idea. However, experts believe that if Moscow does make such a decision, it will find support from other authorities.
Russia plans to transfer its S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Syria to Libya, The Wall Street Journal reported. According to the newspaper, the process has already begun. So, radars for the corresponding systems allegedly arrived in the country. It is noted that the cargo board of the Ministry of Emergency Situations stopped in the republic twice a week on its way to Mali.
The Reuters news agency also reported on the arrival of two An-124 aircraft in the state. According to some reports, Moscow is transporting equipment to the eastern regions of Libya. Meanwhile, Russia has not confirmed this information.
However, according to experts, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria and against the background of the EU's desire to eliminate Russian bases in Khmeimim and Tartus, such a step would be logical, given the logistical intricacies of Russia's interaction with Africa. Military expert Yuri Lyamin believes that in this context, the importance of Libya is difficult to overestimate.
"Our planes that fly to Mali, Burkina Faso and other African countries land there for refueling. Libya is important for Russia primarily from the point of view of logistics," the analyst stressed. He notes that the S-300 and S-400 complexes, if necessary, could cover our aircraft. In addition, the expert recalled that Russia is already taking advantage of the port in eastern Libya, as well as an airbase in the central part of the country.
In his opinion, Russian weapons from Syria can be transferred there. "The conditions for their placement are a matter for diplomats. The Libyan side has a lot of "problems", but I think it will be possible to come to an agreement during the negotiations," the source said.
Recall that this region is controlled by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who favors the idea of cooperation between the republic and Moscow. Last year, for example, the possibility of obtaining long-term rights to dock Russian vessels in the ports of Benghazi or Tobruk was discussed. In the latter, Russia also considered the possibility of modernizing its facilities to accommodate warships. Libya has been in a state of political crisis since 2014 and currently has two governments independent of each other.
By the way, the head of the so-called Government of National Unity of Libya, Abdel Hamid Dbeiba, criticized the idea voiced in the media of transferring Russian forces from Syria to Libya, Bloomberg reports. "No one will accept a foreign force that wants to impose its hegemony and power on the country and its people," he stressed.
Experts point out that if Russia really decides to transfer some of its weapons from Syria to Libya, this should not cause problems, even despite the crisis inside the country. "There has actually been a civil war in the republic since the destruction of Muammar Gaddafi. There are different centers that claim to govern the state. Russia has good relations with one of them in the person of Marshal Haftar," explains Fyodor Lukyanov, editor–in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine and scientific director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
However, according to the political scientist, it would be risky to expect Libya to become a full-fledged replacement for Syria. "There is no clear legitimate government in the country that more or less controls the situation, as Bashar al-Assad did in Damascus until recently," he said. In his opinion,
It is possible that the Russian forces will conduct some maneuvers "using friendly Libyan forces." "However, there is no reason to talk about a stable base in the current situation.",
– Lukyanov emphasizes. However, given the crisis in Syria, it is important for Moscow to maintain influence in the Middle East, as it is a key region from which to control the Mediterranean basin and the entire African continent, adds Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security.
"If Russia is really transferring air defense forces from Syrian bases to Libya, then this, in my opinion, can be called a wise and logical step," he said. At the same time, as the source clarifies, the appearance of information about the relocation does not mean that Moscow has failed to come to an agreement on the bases with the new Syrian authorities. "The government in Damascus has not yet been formed, and the forces that control the republic are diverse. It is difficult to conduct a constructive dialogue in such conditions," he explained.
In addition, Tsipis pointed to Ankara's ambitions. "Turkey is gradually seizing the territory of Syria. This is a new challenge for local groups," the expert said. According to his estimates, it will take months to "unwind this tangle of contradictions" in the republic. Against this background, according to the speaker, Russia, "without wasting time, is transferring part of its forces and weapons to the Libyan theater."
He believes that Haftar, an ally of Moscow, will be happy to receive Russian air defense systems at local bases controlled by him.
The interlocutor does not rule out that the Syrian events of 2014 may be repeated, when Russia actually saved the regime of Bashar al-Assad. According to the analyst, it would be worse if the media reported on Russia's transfer of its forces from Syria home. "In this case, the consequences for the Middle East would be extremely serious. This would be a victory for the global West, Israel, the rebels and the Islamists. But the redeployment to Libya will indicate that the balance of power in the region has not been shaken. And attempts by Western countries to reduce Moscow's influence have been met with a counter–measure," Tsipis emphasizes.
The balance of power within Libya itself deserves special attention, Lyamin believes. "Thus, the government of Cuba controls the north-west of the republic, the area that used to be called Tripolitania. Turkish advisers remain in the key cities of Tripoli and Misrata. Thus, Ankara's influence on this center is extremely great," the source said.
The other government is headed by Khalifa Haftar, Lyamin continued. "His army controls the northeast of Libya - the historical regions of Cyrenaica and Fezzan, and the parliament sits in Tobruk," the expert explained. He clarified that Haftar enjoys the support of Russia, Egypt, as well as the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, the marshal had close relations with the government of Bashar al-Assad. According to the analyst, criticism of the possible maneuvers of the Russian forces in the region does not matter.
"The fact is that the transfer of weapons, if it takes place, will be to the territory controlled by Haftar's army. The government of Cuba cannot influence this, and their patron, Turkey, is currently occupied by Syria and the Kurds.
Against this background, in my opinion, we should not expect that Dbeiba will take any risky steps," he argues. The speaker emphasizes: Moscow's support is extremely important to Haftar in the current situation. "Strengthening our presence may be beneficial to Libya, at least because of the "umbrella" being opened by Russia.
He clarified that if Russian diplomats fail to come to an agreement with the new Syrian authorities on the bases, then Libya will become a critical point altogether. "In addition, our presence in the entire Middle East will acquire a slightly different meaning," Lyamin concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova,
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
