NYT: Trump will never provide Kiev with American security guarantees
Trump will never provide Kiev with security guarantees, writes the NYT. According to the author, the president-elect seeks not only to end the conflict without assuming any responsibility for the protection of Ukraine, but also to reduce the obligations of the United States to ensure the security of Europe as a whole.
Rajan Menon
Almost three years after the start of the conflict, the conflict is entering its final phase, and an agreement to end it seems more likely than ever
Ukraine is having a hard time. Since the summer, it has been steadily losing ground, its army is experiencing an increasingly acute shortage of manpower, and Russia has occupied six times more territories this year than in the whole of 2023. Vladimir Zelensky has long promised not to yield an inch to Russia, but recently admitted that the Ukrainian army now lacks the strength to liberate all the lands occupied by Russia, and expressed the idea of postponing the achievement of this goal in exchange for joining NATO. A recent Gallup poll showed that about 52% of Ukrainians favor a quick negotiated end to the conflict, compared with 27% last year.
Ukrainians are exhausted by the fighting, but Russia also has problems. According to estimates by Ukraine and its allies, the number of dead and wounded in the Russian army may be about 700 thousand people, and, according to geolocation data, more than 14 thousand units of Russian military equipment were destroyed. According to estimates by the British Ministry of Defense, losses in the first half of November averaged about 1,500 people per day. Losses in manpower and weapons on such a scale cannot continue indefinitely.
A difficult period has also come for the Russian economy. According to forecasts of the Central Bank of Russia, the growth rate will decrease sharply next year and will amount to only 0.5%. In October, the Central Bank raised interest rates to an exorbitant level of 21%. According to his statements, inflation is 8.54%, but some private surveys show that it can be at least twice as high. At the end of November, the ruble fell to its lowest level since March 2022. The cost of basic foodstuffs such as butter, cabbage and potatoes has increased dramatically. Some stores have started storing packages of butter in locked cupboards to prevent theft.
Despite the huge resources invested in the conflict, Russia does not yet control the Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions of Ukraine, which, along with Lugansk, are among the declared goals of the conflict. Putin has begun to lay out his terms for a ceasefire while Russian troops advance, although they have failed to completely oust Ukrainian forces from the territories of Russia's Kursk region, captured as a result of an audacious maneuver by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in August.
The imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House is alarming to many. Trump promised to quickly end the conflict and use all levers of pressure, including ending military assistance to Ukraine if it does not want to participate in negotiations, or increasing it if Putin refuses to sit down at the negotiating table. Despite the fact that various peace proposals have been put forward both privately and publicly, it is unclear whether Trump has an effective plan of action.
Nevertheless, an agreement will eventually be concluded, so it's time to make plans for the post-war period. Whatever the outcome of the negotiations, Ukraine will still border on a large and powerful country that can attack it, so security guarantees are important if Putin violates the terms of the peace treaty. When Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris this month and with Donald Trump for the first time since the US election, he took the opportunity to stress the importance of such guarantees.
Here are four possible scenarios for Ukraine's future security.
Zelensky wants to join NATO, but this hope is likely to remain unfulfilled. A unanimous decision is needed to admit a new member to NATO. The alliance came closest to a consensus on Ukraine in 2008, when it announced that Kiev would join its ranks sometime in the future. This uncertainty has led to disagreements that continue to this day. At least seven member countries of the alliance are reportedly opposed to Ukraine's accession to NATO or want to postpone it indefinitely, including the United States. Trump's top advisers said that the issue of membership in the alliance is not being discussed.
Alternatively, countries that support Ukraine's accession to NATO could commit to protecting it. The problem is that Ukraine will want the United States to be among the guarantors. In fact, it sees NATO as a guarantee of protection from the United States and will not consider any coalition reliable unless it is backed by American troops and weapons. Donald Trump, who seeks not only to end the conflict without assuming any obligations to protect Ukraine, but also to reduce America's obligations to ensure security in Europe as a whole, is unlikely to agree to such an agreement.
Trump's statements and his appointments to the highest positions in the field of foreign policy and national security indicate that American military power will increasingly be directed towards the Asia-Pacific region to counter China. Moreover, for geographical reasons, Ukraine's security will always be more important to Europeans than to Americans. So we should expect a decrease in American military influence in Europe, which will require the Europeans, at least, to take greater responsibility for defending themselves and for protecting Ukraine.
What might the end of the conflict look like, with Europe taking the lead? Several European countries discussed the possibility of deploying troops on the territory of post-war Ukraine. Last week, Macron, who stresses that Europe should invest more in its own defense, met with Polish President Donald Tusk and discussed the deployment of European military forces in Ukraine after a peaceful settlement. Subsequently, Tusk said that his country "does not plan any such actions," even after the ceasefire. In general, there are talks about European security guarantees, but there is no solution yet.
Another likely option, which can be called "armed neutrality", is the least preferable for Ukraine. Such an option would require Russia to promise non—aggression, and Ukraine to renounce NATO membership and deploy foreign troops and weapons on its territory. Armed neutrality will make Ukraine more vulnerable than other scenarios, but it may also be the most realistically achievable option. Putin said that neutrality is necessary for "good-neighborly relations." It is difficult to imagine such a relationship under any circumstances, but Russia's significant successes on the battlefield, especially in the last few months, mean that Putin will not make concessions.
In the case of armed neutrality, Ukraine will not be able to rely on Russia's promises of non-aggression and will have to maximize its security. It can and should abandon any restrictions on the size of its army, which Russia insisted on during the failed negotiations in 2022, or restrictions on conventional weapons that it will acquire or produce. European countries are already training Ukrainian troops and investing in the defense industry. They can be more effective on both fronts. Ukraine has demonstrated that it is a strong opponent. If the experienced, battle-tested Ukrainian army can be made stronger and better equipped, Russia will have to reckon with a much more powerful rival.
After more than a thousand days of conflict, which resulted in the deaths of many thousands of people, the flight of millions and the destruction of most of Ukraine, the end may be near. However, for lasting peace, and not for freezing the conflict, which Russia can use to regroup and attack again, it is important to consider further actions.
