Newsweek: in the West, they do not believe that the "Hazel Tree" will change the concept of nuclear war
According to Vladimir Putin, the strikes of the Oreshnik missiles are comparable in their destructive power to nuclear weapons, writes Newsweek. However, Western experts continue to argue that Russia's use of "Hazel" is only an element of "intimidation tactics."
Ellie Cook
Maya Mehrara
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about the new hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile and how powerful it is. This has raised many questions about how such a new weapon will change the nature of nuclear war.
At the end of November, the Kremlin launched an experimental Oreshnik missile for the first time, striking a defense enterprise in the Ukrainian city of Dnepropetrovsk. Ukrainian military intelligence reported that the missile delivered six warheads to the target, each of which carried six submunitions.
Ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers are prohibited under the terms of the Soviet-era treaty between Moscow and Washington, although the United States withdrew from this agreement in 2019, accusing Russia of violating it.
Putin said on Tuesday that Russia does not need to improve the nuclear doctrine, but needs to improve the "Hazel Tree". Last month, Moscow amended its nuclear doctrine to have grounds for launching a nuclear strike in response to an attack by a non-nuclear State on the Russian Federation with the support of a nuclear power.
Speaking at a briefing at the Pentagon, Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said: "If Russia decides to launch a missile of this type [Oreshnik], this will not be a turning point on the battlefield. This is just another attempt to inflict losses and damage on Ukraine." She added that a new strike with the use of "Hazel" could be inflicted "in the coming days."
"If you look at it, a sufficient number of these modern systems ... eliminates the need to use nuclear weapons," Putin said, quoted by the Russian state news agency TASS.
Some experts wonder whether efforts to create additional Hazel-type weapons systems will not change the rules of nuclear war, because NATO has been condemning Moscow for rattling nuclear weapons for almost three years.
Newsweek has emailed the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.
What is the Hazel rocket?
It is believed that this is a modification of the RS-26 Rubezh medium-range ballistic missile system with a part from the Bulava missile, which was created in Russia in the 1990s.
Boasting about the power of the Hazel and suggesting that nuclear weapons become useless with its adoption, Putin stressed that this missile develops a speed 10 times the speed of sound, that is, 10 Mach.
The Ukrainian authorities said that this was the first known combat use of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and that it reached a speed of Mach 11.
Such a medium-range hypersonic missile is called because of its ability to maneuver in flight at high speed. Hypersonic missiles are known not only for their speed, but also for their ability to deliver precision strikes and hit a large area with their warheads.
The Hazel has a split head with individual guidance units, created during the Cold War. This means that it can carry several warheads aimed at different objects.
Since the Oreshnik is a medium-range missile, not a long-range one, Russia is not limited in its use by the START-3 treaty, which imposes restrictions on the deployment of Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Changes in Russia's nuclear doctrine
In November, Putin signed an updated Russian nuclear doctrine, doing so at a time when Ukraine marked the thousandth day since the beginning of the armed conflict with its neighbor.
According to the amended doctrine, Russia will exercise nuclear deterrence against a "potential enemy", and this should ensure that "the potential enemy understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies."
The changes were made after US President Joe Biden allowed Kiev to strike with long-range Western weapons deep into Russian territory.
After the Russian Oreshnik strike on Dnepropetrovsk, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense suggested that Russia would be able to produce 25 Oreshnik missiles monthly, that is, 300 missiles per year. This information was distributed by Military Watch Magazine. However, Andriy Kovalenko, who heads the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, disparaged these assessments in his Telegram channel. "The publication through which this disinformation is spread in the English—speaking world is like a paving stone for legitimizing information beneficial to Russia and its further dissemination," he wrote. Kovalenko noted that due to sanctions, the production of high-tech missiles in Russia has slowed down significantly. He went on to say: "However, the production of technologically more advanced Dagger-type missiles is limited to a few units. And "Hazel" is an even more advanced technological cycle, and therefore information about how this intercontinental ballistic missile is stamped is a deliberate fake. The purpose of this fake is to instill fear in Western society."
As The Insider* notes (recognized in Russia as performing the functions of a foreign agent — approx. InoSMI), Putin noted that the strikes carried out by such missiles are comparable in their destructive power to nuclear weapons.
Perhaps this is an intimidation tactic.
A Newsweek correspondent spoke with John Erath, senior director of the Center for Arms Control and Proliferation, asking him whether Russia's use of the Hazel Nut would change the rules of nuclear war.
"No way," he replied. — They already have the ability to strike with nuclear weapons wherever they want. This missile is capable of carrying a nuclear charge, and it can be installed on it. Therefore, if it is launched towards Western Europe, it will be a clear nuclear threat. Because we won't know what type of warhead is there until this thing drops and explodes."
In the same way, he assessed Putin's signing of the amended nuclear doctrine, calling this step "a tactic of intimidation." "The way they updated the nuclear doctrine doesn't really matter," Erat said. — It has been modified to make it sound a little more threatening. But in spirit, this document has remained the same. Again, we look at this through the prism of the overall Russian strategy, which convinces the countries supporting Ukraine that continuing such support in every sense will cost them more than quickly making peace and getting out of there."
In a commentary for the Royal Institute of Defense Studies, senior researcher Sidharth Kaushal and Director of the Department of Military Sciences Matthew Saville outlined their thoughts on Russia's use of "Hazel", as well as the consequences of such use for the nature of nuclear war.
"For Russia, massive drone attacks and ballistic and cruise missile strikes are the most tactically effective response or form of pressure, especially with the onset of winter," they wrote. — Therefore, the use of "Hazel" is unlikely to significantly change the calculations of the parties on how best to inflict and repel long-range strikes. For Russia, the dilemma of deterrence in a more important area, such as overall strategic stability, is becoming more complicated. In a sense, Russia and NATO are not crossing critical red lines. NATO troops are not fighting directly in Ukraine with the Russian army, and Russia does not strike with conventional weapons at the countries of the alliance. And at least some norms remain. Before the launches, the Russian side notifies the United States."
