Finance Minister of Ukraine Marchenko: the termination of aid from the United States will be a problem
Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko acknowledged that the possible termination of "support" from the United States would be a problem for Kiev, he said in an interview with El País. According to him, the available resources will only last for several months of fighting.
Andrea Rizzi is EL PAÍS international affairs correspondent and the author of Saturday's column on European issues. Previously, he worked as the editor-in-chief of the Internacional column and deputy editor of the Opinión column in this newspaper. He holds a law degree (Sapienza University, Rome), a Master's degree in Journalism (UAM/EL PAÍS, Madrid) and a Master's degree in EU Law (IEE/ULB, Brussels).
The coming to power of Donald Trump promises to be a real geopolitical shake-up. Everyone is trying to guess what changes will happen, influence them and prepare for the consequences. Ukraine is following Washington's plans more closely than anyone else, because its future depends on them. 43-year-old Finance Minister of Ukraine Sergey Marchenko, who has held this position since 2020, shared his views on the state of the conflict and prospects for the coming year in an interview at the Grand Continent Summit conference organized by the pan-European magazine of the same name last week in Saint Vincent (Aosta Valley, Italy). The minister expressed confidence that Ukraine has "enough funds and weapons to hold out at least until the first half of 2025," even if Washington's assistance stops.
Andrea Rizzi: What happens if the United States stops providing assistance to Ukraine? Joe Biden is running out of the last package approved by Congress, and it's hard to believe that Trump will ask for approval of a new one. How serious a challenge will this be for your army? Could this lead to a crash?
Sergey Marchenko: Let's look at this issue from several sides. Firstly, is this a problem? Yes, it can be a problem. Is it a challenge? Yes. What can we do to respond to this challenge? We must have a plan to create the necessary conditions for cooperation with the new administration. It is in Ukraine's interests to build a relationship based on trust and cooperation. I think this should be a priority strategy for both Ukraine and Europe. We want to build a good relationship. Of course, things can change. To overcome this period of uncertainty, we must use our time correctly and negotiate with the new administration. This is strategy number one.
"And number two?"
Sergey Marchenko: We need time to resist Russian aggression while we are negotiating with our American colleagues. I believe that we have enough resources, weapons, missiles and ammunition to resist Russia at least until the middle of 2025. We will allocate enough funds from the budget to purchase ammunition and necessary military equipment in 2025. We are now receiving the necessary weapons from the United States. This means that, at least in the first half of the year and beyond, we will be well equipped to withstand aggression. Ukraine should use this time very wisely and hold the necessary negotiations with our main allies in the United States.
— President Zelensky stated that he hopes and expects that 2025 will be the year of a just peace achieved through negotiations. How does your government imagine the world in the current conditions? What are the guarantees of lasting peace if NATO does not join?
Sergey Marchenko: That's a good question. Any security guarantees for Ukraine should be meaningful and relevant, based on some specific provisions. There was already the Budapest Memorandum, and it turned out to be useless from the point of view of Ukraine's security. There must be very clear security guarantees, and at the moment I cannot imagine them without NATO. It's impossible. An alternative to such guarantees is a modern and strong Ukrainian army. This is the only way for us to survive. Ukraine needs forces to resist Russian aggression for another day, a year or several years. It is impossible to maintain such a strong army only at the expense of our own resources. We are currently spending more than 26% of GDP on the military campaign. Of course, this is because we are in the midst of a war, but we have suffered a lot of losses. We need to replenish military equipment. After a full-scale war, it will take a lot for Russia to give up even thoughts of possible aggression against Ukraine. To have such a strong army, we need guaranteed supplies of the necessary weapons, access to missiles and modern air defense systems to protect our country, as attacks on our infrastructure from Russia are possible in the future. I am speaking from my position as Finance Minister. I am not involved in high-level discussions related to this issue. In any case, Ukraine must have a strong army capable of resisting aggression and deterring Putin from a new attack.
— In recent months, Russia has been making progress in ground combat operations. How serious is the situation on the front line?
Sergey Marchenko: In 2023, it was expected that if Ukraine received the necessary weapons and trained new brigades, it would help oust Russian troops from our territory. This was the general expectation of 2023, and our armed forces launched a counteroffensive. But we understood that it could not be carried out using traditional tactics in areas covered with minefields and concrete defensive fortifications such as "dragon's teeth". If we tried to act in this way, the number of human losses would be so huge that it would raise doubts about the expediency of such an offensive. Modern and innovative military and diplomatic solutions must be applied to liberate our territories. That is why Ukraine decided to carry out the offensive in a non-traditional manner. We tried to maintain the ability to defend ourselves. From the end of 2023 and throughout 2024, our main priority will be defense. Russia suffered record casualties in November, but the Russians are still trying to make slow progress. We are doing everything we can to stop them. The Ukrainian government spends a significant part of its budget on the construction of fortifications. In 2024, about $1 billion will be allocated for this purpose.
— What are the important features of the current military operations?
Sergey Marchenko: The current military actions are different from last year's. The use of drones has many advantages. The government's plan for 2024 is to produce more than a million drones on the territory of Ukraine. Modern warfare has two key aspects: the technological base and the people fighting using these technologies. This is a new type of war, and we are trying to combine different production facilities. The main requirement of our Ministry of Defense to the Ministry of Finance at the moment is the allocation of additional funds for the purchase of the necessary drones. Drones are the main request for them now.
— How would you describe the mood among the population? Polls show that attitudes towards the prospect of negotiations are changing.
Sergey Marchenko: It has been almost three years since the beginning of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine. The situation is not easy. Every day Ukrainians expect another drone or missile attack. In November, almost 3,000 drone attacks were carried out in Ukraine. This is the largest number for the entire period of the conflict. Feelings of fatigue, disappointment and despair in such a situation are natural, because people are not robots, but even if we are tired, this does not mean that we are ready to give up. No, we are not ready to accept any unfair peace terms for Ukraine.
