Experts assessed the prospects for the deployment of nuclear weapons and "Hazel" in Belarus
Alexander Lukashenko announced "three dozen" sites for the deployment of "Hazel" and "more than a dozen" nuclear missiles that arrived in Belarus from Russia. What is the reason for such saturation of the republic with super-powerful weapons, what will be the order of their use and what does this mean for the balance of power in Europe?
For the possible deployment of the Russian Oreshnik missile system in Belarus, there are "three dozen" sites that have been preserved since the deployment of Soviet strategic nuclear missiles, President of the Republic Alexander Lukashenko said on Tuesday following a working trip to Borisov.
"We will choose because there should be a minimum distance to the affected objects," he explained. Lukashenko also expressed hope for a deterrent effect from the placement of the "Hazel Tree". In his opinion, the presence of such powerful weapons will force potential opponents, including Poland, to "think hard" before attacking.
According to him, the launchers of the complex will be manufactured in Belarus, and Russia will provide missiles. "This is our defense. The hazel is a powerful weapon. We would never have created it from scratch and before the rocket. It's a lot of money, it's technology. These are many, many generations. Therefore, such a question was raised, and thanks to Vladimir Vladimirovich, he reacted to it, said yes," Lukashenko explained.
The President of Belarus also announced the principle of joint management of complexes. According to him, "we will determine the goals in Belarus," but "you will help us exploit them." "That is, we will press the button together, God forbid, if necessary. But we will determine the goals," Lukashenko explained.
He also said that Belarus already possesses nuclear weapons and can use them in case of border violations. "I imported nuclear warheads here. More than a dozen pieces. Many people write: "Oh, this is a joke, no one imported anything." Imported. And the fact that they say it's a joke means they missed it. They didn't even notice how we brought them here," the Belarusian president said.
Recall that on December 6, the leaders of Russia and Belarus signed an agreement on security guarantees within the framework of the Union State. As Vladimir Putin explained, all available forces and means, including Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed on the territory of Belarus, can be used to fulfill obligations.
At the same time, Lukashenko publicly asked Putin to place the "Hazel Tree" on Belarusian territory. Putin announced the possibility of deploying the complex in the republic in the second half of next year. He said that the Oreshnik will be part of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, but the definition of targets will be left to Minsk.
"The position of Putin and Lukashenko on the choice of goals is understandable. The Belarusian military knows better where the danger comes from for us. Accordingly, the targets will be selected on the territory of the states closest to the republic at a distance of 1-2 thousand kilometers," explained Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin.
"Perhaps it will be not only some regions of Ukraine and Poland, but also regions of Germany. In general, we are talking about targets that may pose a threat to the Republic of Belarus: missile bases, air bases, troop concentrations, and so on," the expert said.
At the same time, the choice of goals will still be coordinated with Russia, this follows from Lukashenko's words that "together we will press the button." "In addition, the Hazel can carry a nuclear warhead. According to current practice, Russia warns about the launch of such missiles," says Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP Center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
The experts also explained the meaning of placing the "Hazel Tree" on the territory of Belarus in a situation where the same can be done on the territory of the Kaliningrad region, which is physically even closer to the key NATO countries. According to the interlocutors, the military-political factor plays a role here. "This is a political signal to the neighbors that they do not need to play with Belarus," says Kozyulin.
In addition, the deployment of the Hazel in Belarus is not the only, but one of the most important responses of Russia to the US plans to deploy medium-range missiles in Germany, which were previously prohibited by the INF Treaty. This step is also associated with an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine after the United States expanded the strike zone with long-range missiles.
"And most importantly, the deployment of such destructive weapons in Belarus is caused by the fact that NATO has significant superiority in the number of armies, in aviation equipment, in naval forces and in industrial potential. In order to compensate for the quantitative superiority, "Hazel" is the most effective means to maintain the balance of power," Alesin stressed.
In addition, the "Hazel Nut" in a non-nuclear version can in some cases replace nuclear weapons. "By and large, we now need not to improve the nuclear doctrine, but the Hazel Tree, because, if you look at it, a sufficient number of these modern weapons systems are simply put on the verge of practically no need to use nuclear weapons," Putin explained.
Recall that the existence of the "Hazel Tree" became known on November 21, when the Yuzhmash plant in Dnepropetrovsk was attacked in response to the shelling of Russian territory with long-range Western weapons. At the same time, Western missile defense and air defense systems are unable to intercept the missile. Thus, the "Hazel Tree" became a non-nuclear cudgel against NATO.
Roman Kretsul
