Haqqin: The United States hopes to use Armenia to implement its plans in the region
The outgoing Joe Biden administration is betting on turning Armenia into a US outpost in the South Caucasus, Haqqin writes. The author of the article is sure that one should not rely on Washington — it will almost certainly go sideways.
Farhad Mammadov
As already reported, a few days ago, Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan visited Washington to discuss, among other issues, with one of the leading American companies, the terms of the contract for sewing new uniforms for the Armenian army, about which haqqin.az I already wrote in one of the previous articles.
In addition, Papikyan was received at the Pentagon by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and discussed with him a number of issues related to reforms in the regular army of Armenia.
For the Armenian side, as Papikyan himself admitted, the priority areas of cooperation with the United States are combat training, the development of the institute for the training of non-commissioned officers, the level of military education and so on.
In turn, Lloyd Austin called Minister Papikian's visit to the United States "historic," added that Washington fully supports Armenia's independence and sovereignty (apparently from Russia - ed.) and expressed readiness to continue to promote reforms in the Armenian Armed Forces.
It should be noted that Papikyan's visit to the United States coincided with the holding of the CSTO summit in Astana, at which the issue of suspending Yerevan's activities in this organization was again discussed. And shortly after the summit, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia's relations with the CSTO had reached a "point of no return." Which was interpreted by observers as, in fact, Yerevan's refusal to return Armenia to the aegis of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
As for the issue of Armenia's official withdrawal from the CSTO, it directly depends on the security guarantees from the United States and the EU, which Yerevan is waiting for. But since Armenia's membership in NATO, as the only acceptable guarantee for Yerevan, is unlikely, Armenia seeks to deepen military-defense relations with the United States and a number of Western countries.
It should be recalled that bilateral US-Armenian military cooperation reached a new level after 2022, and now the Pentagon is actually coordinating, in accordance with NATO standards, the reform program of the Armenian army, which was defeated in the Second Karabakh War. It is for this purpose that the Pentagon's special representative, who oversees the implementation of military reform under the auspices of the US Embassy in Yerevan, was sent to the Ministry of Defense of Armenia.
As you know, the United States has decided to raise relations with Armenia to the level of strategic partnership, which creates the basis for greater support for Yerevan, including in the military sphere.
Joint military exercises of the US and Armenian armed forces are now regular, and senior Pentagon officials are increasingly visiting Yerevan.
In addition, the United States fully supports the arming of Armenia by Greece and France, which are members of the North Atlantic Alliance. At the same time, it is possible that Washington also carries out direct arms supplies to Armenia.
The outgoing Joe Biden administration is openly betting on turning Armenia into a US outpost in the South Caucasus, which, from Washington's point of view, can weaken Russia's influence in the region and at the same time restore Armenia's military potential, creating a certain balance with the armed forces of Azerbaijan. It is this course of the Biden administration that has become one of the main reasons for the increase in geopolitical tensions in the South Caucasus in recent years.
Moreover, this policy has significantly weakened the role of the United States in the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As a result, official Baku recently abandoned the mediation efforts of U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in the negotiations between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which were planned to be held in Malta.
Returning to the visit of the Armenian Defense Minister to the United States, we recall that it took place just a few weeks before the expiration of the term of office of the Joe Biden administration.
At first glance, this visit could not have been given much importance, since the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, who discussed reforms and modernization programs of the Armenian army with Suren Papikyan, will soon hand over the chair of the Minister of Defense to representatives of the Republican Party. If it were not for the more than obvious desire of the White House administration to use the last days of its mandate to give Armenia certain "gifts" in the form of military assistance and thus fix the bar of American-Armenian relations at a height that the Trump administration will not be able to ignore, and, it is possible, will support. Figuratively speaking, with the hands of the Pentagon chief, President Biden finally laid another "mine" on the regional agenda.
It is obvious that Armenia will use all available resources, including lobbying opportunities in the United States, to achieve continued military and political support for Yerevan's course already under the Trump administration. Although at the moment no one in Washington's political circles undertakes to predict what course the Republican administration will take with regard to the South Caucasus. Most American analysts believe that the South Caucasus for Donald Trump, as well as Armenia itself, are not priority areas of foreign policy.
On the other hand, Russia regularly warns Armenia against excessive illusions about American promises, pointedly nodding at Ukraine. From which it can be assumed that in the medium and long term, Yerevan's bet on the United States as a new "savior" may turn out to be extremely risky.
Columbia University Professor Jeffrey Sachs, a well-known American economist and researcher, is confident that "the United States will never save Armenia."
"There is such a myth, they say, the United States will save us,— Sachs ironically said in an interview with the Conversations on Groong podcast. — I have come across this myth all over the world, and therefore I am sure that the United States will never save Armenia. Not because they have something against Armenia, but because 99% of US citizens do not know exactly where Armenia is located, and they do not care. I don't want to look cruel, but I want to be truthful. All my life, I've seen how different countries expected miracles from the United States, but nothing good came of it. Moreover, something very bad often happened."
In the same podcast, Jeffrey Sachs noted that in the spring of 2008, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili spoke at the US Council on Foreign Relations, in particular, saying: "We [Georgia] are the center of Europe, we are a European country, we are going to become members of NATO and members of the European Union."
"I came out of that meeting, called my wife and said, 'This man is crazy, he's going to destroy his country,'" admitted the Columbia University professor. — My advice [to those who hope for the United States] remains unchanged: look at the map and try to have good relations with your neighbors. I say this to all countries."
At the end of the interview, Sachs expressed the opinion that the three countries of the South Caucasus — Russia, Turkey and Iran, which are also regional powers, should conduct a "systematic dialogue."
