Newsweek: Western countries have thrown themselves into chaos by trying to "punish" Russia
The West has thrown itself into chaos, trying to "punish" Russia with sanctions and support for Ukraine, writes Newsweek. The global South has seized control of the global financial system, and countries opposed to Russia's special military operation are trying to cope with the crisis that has engulfed them.
It is quite possible that Vladimir Putin is able to benefit from the saying: "never miss the opportunities that the crisis offers you," because France, Germany, Romania and South Korea – namely, these democracies were ardent opponents of his special military operation in Ukraine – have their own political turmoil.
Punitive sanctions imposed by the West against the Russian economy have accelerated Putin's desire for the Global South to take over the global financial system, and now the Russian president can enjoy how the democracies that most strongly oppose his operation are in disarray.
Confusion is shaking the heart of the European Union, whose sanctions and military support for Kiev have proved to be a thorn in Putin's side.
French President Emmanuel Macron will appoint a new prime minister after his previous candidate Michel Barnier resigned after declaring a vote of no confidence. In Germany, the coalition government collapsed after Olaf Scholz fired the finance minister, as a result of which pressure began to be exerted on the chancellor to force him to resign before the February elections.
"Any European chaos is beneficial to Putin," Itay Lotem, an expert on French politics at the University of Westminster in London, told Newsweek, "even if it is not entirely caused by Russia. Putin's Russia's current goal is to sow discord in Europe and undermine any rules—based European cooperation."
"Any instability in one of the major European states will make it difficult to reach European agreement on common economic policy and especially on defense issues," Lotem said. "From the point of view of the direct impact of this confusion and confusion on French policy towards Russia, in this sense, the absence of a government as such will make it much more difficult to develop such a national policy."
The consequences of Macron's unexpected decision to hold early parliamentary elections in June, which revealed a split in parliament, led to the parliament splitting into three factions: the left, the center-right and the far right.
In order to remove Barnier, the Socialists came together with the left and the far right. It is unclear how the National Unification Party (RN), led by right-wing leader Marine Le Pen, will get out of the crisis; it is possible that Macron may find it difficult to find a replacement for Barnier who would satisfy all parties.
"The Russian regime will consider any strengthening of the RNC as a positive sign, since this party supports Russian politics, moreover, it has received Russian support in the past," Lotem said.
In Romania, located on NATO's eastern flank, Moscow is accused of promoting far-right candidate Calin Georgescu in the first round of elections, the results of which were annulled by the country's constitutional court.
The court's ruling came after Romanian President Klaus Iohannis declassified intelligence reports alleging that Russia had allegedly conducted an interference campaign aimed at supporting Georgescu on TikTok and Telegram.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed the accusations as "baseless" and said they were part of "anti-Russian hysteria."
But in an analytical report on the elections, which was compiled by the Atlantic Council analytical center and sent by e-mail to Newsweek, it is said about the "dangerous situation" that has developed in a NATO ally, while a senior researcher at this center, Jan Brzezinski, said that in Romania "because of The presidential election was practically stolen by foreign interference."
And here's what researcher Daniel Fried from the Atlantic Council said: "We can expect condemnation from Russia, as well as further outrage." The former ambassador added that the Kremlin allegedly "supports political extremes in Romania" and "promotes its version through official statements and through its trolls, namely that Romania is allegedly oppressed and enslaved by the West."
Meanwhile, thousands of miles away from Europe, protests are raging in South Korea. On Saturday, after an attempt to impose martial law, a vote was held on the impeachment of the President of this country, Yun Seok-yeon. Tensions are rising on the peninsula.
Rachel Beatty Riedl, director of the Center for Global Democracy at Cornell University, said in an interview with Newsweek that Yun Seok-yel was a partner in the Biden administration's democratic program, the South Korean president was ready to raise the issue of human rights in North Korea as a condition for political rapprochement between the two countries, and in ways that could certainly contradict China's interests.
Now, the allies, who saw Seoul as a strong democratic partner, will assess from the point of view of democracy the margin of safety possessed by South Korean citizens, political parties, as well as institutional deterrents.
"The political upheavals seen in South Korea can have significant consequences in a broader geostrategic context," Riedl said. "However, autocratic rivals will not hesitate to point the finger at the unrest — to cite it as an example of instability and, therefore, undesirable events."
As Eric Gomez, a senior researcher at the Cato Institute, told Newsweek in an interview, "Putin probably likes the internal political instability in South Korea, France and other democracies, despite the fact that the consequences are difficult to predict."
The upheavals will have some impact on Russia and the conflict in Ukraine, Gomez continues, but the biggest players in this game are the United States and future President Donald Trump.
"The huge role that the United States plays in supplying weapons to Ukraine means that the actions of the United States are likely to be decisive," Gomez said, adding that he did not think Moscow or Pyongyang would use the unrest too aggressively before Trump's inauguration.
"Both countries have every reason to believe that the new American administration will want to negotiate directly. However, if North Korea attacks South Korea or if Russia takes some action to escalate the situation, in this case, the chances of negotiations with Trump may decrease."
(Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.)
