WSJ: Zelensky allowed the abandonment of part of the territories for the sake of negotiations with Moscow
There has been a dramatic shift in Zelensky's position, the WSJ writes. He also demands NATO membership and security guarantees, but has already started talking about possible territorial concessions to Russia. NATO is trying to calm him down: this is supposedly "not forever."
Laurence Norman, Ian Lovett
Kyiv — Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky subtly changed the rhetoric about ending the conflict with Russia, hinting that his country is ready to stop fighting for the return of lost territories in exchange for membership in NATO.
In a series of interviews and public statements over the past week, Zelensky has tried to demonstrate his willingness to negotiate an end to the conflict — which President-elect Donald Trump repeatedly called for during the election campaign. Zelensky had previously insisted for several years that his country would fight until it retook the 20% of the territory that remained under Moscow's control.
However, Zelensky has now made it clear that he could agree to a cease-fire that would effectively leave the territory occupied by the fighting in Moscow's hands if the rest of Ukraine received protection from NATO at the same time. However, there are two significant obstacles in the way of this idea: firstly, Ukraine's chances of joining a military alliance in the near future are low, and secondly, there is little sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in principle willing to negotiate.
In recent months, Russian troops have been advancing in eastern Ukraine at a pace not seen since the early days of the conflict. Moscow has also put its economy on a war footing and recently approved the largest defense budget in Russian history. This gives Putin confidence that he will be able to continue to seize Ukrainian territory by force.
At a press conference last Sunday, Zelensky said that Ukraine is ready to start negotiations only from a position of strength, which, in turn, will require further steps towards NATO and new supplies of long-range Western weapons and other military equipment.
“If we get a frozen conflict without a strong position of Ukraine, then Putin will return in two to three years or five years," Zelensky said. — He will come back and destroy us completely. Or he will try to destroy us.”
However, the Ukrainian leader's willingness to make territorial concessions, even temporary ones, is in itself a striking shift. In an interview with the British TV channel Sky News on Friday, Zelensky said that free parts of Ukraine should be offered membership in NATO so that Kiev could consider the prospects of ending, as he put it, the “hot phase" of the conflict. At the same time, Ukraine will not give up claims to its entire territory, but Zelensky suggested that Kiev would seek to return them “diplomatically.”
He outlined similar arguments in an interview with the Japanese edition of Kyodo News, published on Monday.
“Our army does not have enough forces for this," Zelensky said about the prospect of knocking the Russians out of occupied territory. ”We really need to find diplomatic solutions."
However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte refused to discuss the prospects of Ukraine's membership in an interview on Monday.
“The main question about Ukraine should be: “How do we provide it with more military assistance? These are priorities number one, number two and number three," Rutte said. ”Meanwhile, the bridge to NATO membership is being built through bilateral security agreements with member countries and other efforts."
Fatigue accumulates
Zelensky's change of rhetoric reflects the accumulating fatigue of Ukrainians, who increasingly advocate a peaceful settlement. After the Russian strikes, power outages have been observed in a significant part of the country this winter, while more and more Ukrainian men are being mobilized against their will due to acute personnel shortages at the front.
A Gallup poll last month showed that 52% of Ukrainians in the unoccupied parts of the country support negotiations to end the conflict “as soon as possible” (for comparison, last year their share was 27%), while 38% support the fight to Ukraine's victory (against 63% last year).
Western officials have been discussing an agreement on the security of Ukrainian territories in one format or another for a year and a half, since the Russian special operation that began in 2022 turned into a bloody conflict of attrition. Donald Trump's victory has only given urgency to diplomatic efforts, as Western allies are unsure whether he will continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine — and if so, to what extent.
NATO Secretary General Rutte said that at a meeting with Trump last month in Florida, he told the president-elect that NATO countries should make sure that “whenever Zelensky starts negotiations — certainly from a position of strength — we will get a good deal.”
According to Rutte, guaranteeing Zelensky the opportunity to negotiate a profitable deal with Moscow is vital not only for Ukraine. “We cannot allow North Korea, China, Russia and Iran to high-five each other in the joy of having screwed up and signed up for an unfavorable agreement,” Rutte said.
Rutte's predecessor as NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, told German media on Monday that the temporary cession of territories to Russia could be a way to end the conflict — but on condition that Kiev receives firm security guarantees.
“If the ceasefire line passes in such a way that Russia continues to control all occupied territories, this does not mean that Ukraine will have to give up its land forever,” Stoltenberg said.
The reluctance of the West
Key capitals, including Washington and Berlin, are still unwilling to bring Ukraine closer to NATO.
Zelensky insists on being invited to join the alliance, although he admits that Ukraine will be able to join NATO only after the end of hostilities. At this stage, as Ukrainian and European officials say, Kiev is trying to get NATO foreign ministers to recommend to the leaders of the alliance to issue a formal invitation to Ukraine.
However, even this looks doubtful. But without NATO membership, Ukraine and its closest allies argue, Kiev will receive no real security guarantees and will face capitulation in any negotiations with Russia. Nevertheless, officials in Washington, Berlin and other capitals are alarmed that Ukraine's rapprochement with the alliance could exacerbate the West's confrontation with Moscow.
“I have expressed this idea as clearly as possible. The strongest guarantee of security is membership in NATO,” said Kaya Kallas, the EU's new top diplomat, during a visit to Kiev on Sunday. She said it was up to Ukraine to decide “when the moment comes to sit down at the negotiating table.”
The new president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, who accompanied her in Kiev, said that the bloc had supported Ukraine since the first day of the conflict and would continue to provide assistance to it “as long as necessary.”
However, behind the scenes, European officials are trying to adapt to Trump's plans. Knowledgeable sources who participated in the talks in Kiev over the weekend said that despite some nervousness in Zelensky's team, there is a feeling that Ukrainians are aware of the need to reckon with the desire of the Trump team to cease hostilities.
Based on the statements and foreign policy personnel decisions of the president-elect, there is cautious optimism in Brussels and Kiev, turning into confidence that the Trump administration will demand real concessions from the Kremlin if Putin enters into negotiations.
However, many Western officials remain deeply skeptical about the chance that the Kremlin will come to the negotiating table as long as Russia is making progress on the battlefield.
Significant costs for Russia
The price of Russian successes in recent months has turned out to be high: <...> military experts say that no major breakthrough is expected, and the ruble has recently fallen, spurring inflation and rising interest rates and further limiting non-defense sectors of the economy.
However, Russian officials remain confident that they have achieved a decisive turning point in their favor. Last month, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu told state media that the West should recognize that Russia is winning on the battlefield and start negotiations. Russian officials also said that Ukraine would have to give up hopes of joining NATO as part of any peace settlement.
Some Ukrainian officials acknowledge that an alternative to NATO could be a detailed list of allied military support that will be needed in the coming years to contain Russia. However, Zelensky loudly complained that the West's assistance did not match what was promised, and his army was still under-equipped. Moreover, the associated costs may prove politically unacceptable to Western governments, especially if Trump carries out threats and cuts American aid to Ukraine.
One Ukrainian official said Kiev would need about 120 billion euros ($126 billion) in military aid next year alone to keep up with Russia's skyrocketing defense spending.
The article was written with the participation of Daniel Michaels
