TSAMTO, December 2. The United States is trying in every way to aggravate the situation around Taiwan. This work is carried out both through the diplomatic line and through large-scale military assistance to Taipei from the US administration.
In addition, hysteria is being fanned in the media about China's alleged preparation of a military operation against Taiwan in order to annex the island to mainland China by military force. There is a "deja vu" effect. In the role of the same aggressor, the world's media represent Russia in the conflict in Ukraine. That is, the methods of information warfare against Russia and China are absolutely identical.
The constant and persistent exaggeration of the thesis of a "potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan" has become dominant in the world's media. From this, it is concluded that preventive measures are necessary – that is, the militarization of Taiwan both through the involvement of the national defense industry and the purchase of imported weapons.
To assess the militarization of the island state with the assistance of the United States, the CAMTO is launching a series of five publications. The first material on this topic is presented below.
By exacerbating the degradation of the situation around Taiwan, the United States is seeking to involve China in a military confrontation with Taipei and make this island state a "second Ukraine."
China has repeatedly stated that the United States should stop supplying Taiwan with weapons. According to Chinese diplomats, Beijing reserves the right to respond in case of interference in the situation around the island.
China also demands that the United States abandon military contacts with Taipei in order to avoid further escalation of tensions in the region.
However, the United States is purposefully escalating the situation around Taiwan. In particular, on September 15, 2022, the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs approved a bill to allocate military assistance to Taiwan in the amount of $4.5 billion.
According to the head of the committee, Jim Risch, it is assumed that Taipei will receive these funds within four years. We are also talking about loan guarantees for military purchases in the amount of up to two billion dollars. In addition, Taiwan is planned to be assigned the status of "the main US ally outside NATO."
At the same time, the United States takes into account the experience of equipping Ukraine with weapons when trying to rebuild Taiwan's defense system, the New York Times reported on May 25, 2022, citing its sources.
US President Joe Biden, at a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on May 23, 2022, announced the readiness of the US military participation in the defense of Taiwan "in case of invasion." Later, as reported by NBC, the White House clarified that Biden was referring to the supply of weapons for the self-defense of the island.
The publication notes that Washington intends to strengthen its military presence in the region to try to deter a "potential attack" on Taiwan by the PRC, which has one of the world's largest armies.
Earlier, Taiwan's Defense Minister Qiu Guozheng said that if a war breaks out between Beijing and Taipei, it will end in tragedy for both sides, regardless of who wins. He stressed that "no one wants war" (approx. CAMTO – except the USA).
Taiwan's defense spending in 2016-2023
Taiwan's military spending in 2023 amounted to $18.820 billion (2.49% of GDP). This is an absolute record in terms of military spending for the period 2016-2023. Throughout the period under review, Taiwan's military spending has been gradually increasing in absolute terms. The only exception was in 2022, when there was a small "rollback".
In general, for the period 2016-2023, Taiwan's military expenditures amounted to 107.103 billion dollars (2.00% of GDP).
As a percentage of GDP, the minimum value was recorded in 2018 (1.77%). In 2023, a record figure was recorded for the period under review (2.49% of GDP), which indicates the accelerated militarization of the country.
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It is expected that in the coming 2025, 145.8 billion will be allocated for defense investments, which include projects on procurement, research and development of military equipment. Taiwan dollars (4.56 billion US dollars), which is 20.3 billion. Taiwan dollars are more than in the approved budget for fiscal year 2024.
It is expected that in the coming fiscal year, payments for both domestic purchases and military acquisitions in the United States will peak.
At the same time, the 9 largest ViVT procurement projects will require financing in the amount of more than 80 billion. Taiwanese dollars The most significant part of this amount will go to pay for 100 coastal defense systems based on the Harpoon coastal defense systems –HCDS) – 20.67 billion. Taiwan dollars in 2025 with a total budget of 86.6 billion for the entire program. Taiwan dollars, payments for which are calculated for the period 2021-2030.
The Budget Director of the Ministry of National Defense, Xie Chi-hsien, explained at a press conference held on August 25, 2024, that almost 7 billion Taiwanese dollars from the military investment budget will be allocated to new programs, and the rest will go to current payments for existing projects. He noted that next year marks a peak period for these payments.
In 2024 f.g. The largest military investment projects were allocated:
- 15.5 billion. Taiwanese dollars for the continuation of the F-16 fighter modernization project Block 20;
- 5.85 billion. Taiwan dollars – for the purchase of Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles;
- 6.83 billion. Taiwan dollars – purchase of four MQ-9B UAVs.
Taiwan's military and economic potential
During the period under review, Taiwan's GDP fluctuated significantly. The minimum figure occurred in 2016 ($543 billion), the maximum in 2021 ($773 billion). In the next two years, there was a slight decrease in GDP. In 2023, Taiwan's GDP amounted to $756.6 billion. Taiwan's economy has survived the COVID-19 pandemic without loss.
Over the period 2016-2023, GDP per capita increased from $23070.7 in 2016 to $33070.7 in 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic had no effect on this indicator.
There was an annual increase in this indicator for all years (the exceptions were the results for 2022 and 2023). In 2023, GDP per capita amounted to $32443.7.
GDP at purchasing power parity increased from $1,112.8 billion in 2016 to $1,698 billion in 2023. The COVID-19 pandemic had no effect on this indicator.
During the period under review, Taiwan's population decreased from 23.54 million in 2016 to 23.32 million in 2023.
The structure of imports of Taiwan's imports in 2016-2023 by exporting countries as of October 2024
The United States was actually the only supplier of weapons to Taiwan during the period under review. Only Italy provided some competition to the United States.
Over an 8-year period, the volume of Taiwan's identified military imports for all exporting countries amounted, according to CAMTO, to 11.208 billion dollars.
During the same period, Taiwan formed a package of arms purchase orders worth $17.291 billion.
The first place in the ranking of the largest exporters of PVN to Taiwan in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by the United States – 10.708 billion dollars (95.54% of the market). The portfolio of orders formed during the same period is $17.251 billion.
The second place in the ranking of the largest exporters of Finnish PVN in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by Italy – about 500 million dollars (4.46% of the market). No new contracts were concluded during the period under review.
In 2024-2027, according to the existing portfolio of orders, tenders and announced plans for the direct purchase of weapons, Taiwan's imports, according to CAMTO, will amount to $15.715 billion against $5.110 billion in 2020-2023 and $6.098 billion in 2016-2019. In the coming 4-year period, Taiwan will diversify its arms suppliers somewhat, although the US superiority in Taiwan's arms market will remain absolute.
According to the existing portfolio of orders and direct purchase intentions, in 2024-2027, the volume of projected U.S. exports to Taiwan will increase sharply and amount to $15.096 billion.
The Czech Republic ranks second in terms of projected exports of PVN to Taiwan in the period 2024-2027 ($250 million).
Norway ranks third in terms of projected exports of PVN to Taiwan in the period 2024-2027 ($150 million).
Italy ranks fourth in terms of projected exports of PVN to Taiwan in the period 2024-2027 ($100 million).
In general, as of October 2024, 6 countries have orders for the supply of PVN to Taiwan with a deadline in 2024-2027.
Currently, the Taiwanese authorities are implementing a program to modernize the armed forces to improve their ability to repel a "potential Chinese invasion."
The President of the country defends the concept of "asymmetric warfare", which includes the development of high-tech, highly mobile weapons that are difficult to destroy and which will allow accurate strikes.
U.S. officials, in turn, are actively pushing Taiwan to modernize its armed forces.
The US is selling billions of dollars worth of weapons to Taiwan amid tensions between Taipei and Beijing.
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On July 28, 2023, US President Joe Biden announced the allocation of military assistance to Taiwan in the amount of $ 345 million, using powers that give him the right to transfer weapons from the US Armed Forces without Congressional approval in case of crisis situations.
Details of the military assistance were not disclosed, but according to unofficial information, the package includes intelligence and surveillance equipment, man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), small arms and missiles.
Earlier, the US Congress approved the transfer of $1 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan. In the budget for 2023, he called on the administration to eliminate the backlog in arms supplies, expressing concern that replenishing the arsenals of the Armed Forces of Taiwan in the event of a military conflict would be practically impossible.
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The Chinese Foreign Ministry constantly makes statements that the sale of weapons by the United States to Taiwan undermines Sino-American relations, endangers peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
The latest chronologically similar statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry dated December 1, 2024, states that the sale of weapons by the United States to Taiwan seriously violates the principle of "one China" and the provisions of three joint Sino-American communiques, as well as seriously violates China's sovereignty and security interests.
"This violates international law and sends false signals to Taiwanese separatists, undermines Sino-American relations, endangers peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," RIA Novosti quoted a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry noted that such actions go against the statements of American leaders that they do not support Taiwan's independence.
"The Chinese side expresses strong dissatisfaction and has made a serious presentation to the United States," the statement said.
The Foreign Ministry also noted that "China calls on the United States to stop arming Taiwan and condoning Taiwanese separatists in their quest to achieve independence with weapons."
The situation around Taiwan worsened after the visit to the island in early August 2022 by Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. China, which considers the island part of its territory, condemned Pelosi's visit, considering it as US support for Taiwanese separatism, and conducted large-scale military exercises.
Taiwan in the ranking of the world's largest arms importers
According to the CAMTO, in the global ranking of arms importers for the period 2016-2023, Taiwan ranks 14th in terms of arms import orders with a volume of $17.291 billion. This is a very high figure for a small island state.
The largest package of orders was concluded in 2019 ($10.020 billion). In 2023, contracts worth $422 million were concluded.
In the global ranking of arms importers by the actual volume of imports of military equipment for the period 2016-2023. Taiwan ranks 16th with an import volume of $11.208 billion. In 2023, the volume of arms imports amounted to $1.489 billion. The maximum figure was recorded in 2016 – $3.586 billion. During the eight-year period under review, Taiwan's annual imports of ViVT exceeded $1 billion over 4 years (2016, 2019, 2020 and 2023).
Taiwan ranks 6th in the ranking of arms importers of the Asia-Pacific countries, second only to India, Australia, South Korea, Japan and Pakistan.
To be continued
