TSAMTO, December 2. The Republic of India has the second largest Armed Forces (AF) and is one of the four most powerful states in the world in terms of total military potential.
However, the available arsenals of weapons, military and special equipment (VVST), according to Indian experts, are 45% outdated. There is an urgent need to replace them, and at the same time, to switch to a new, fifth generation of VVST.
Historically, India has taken a balanced approach to defense spending, purchasing the best samples of military equipment abroad and, at the same time, developing its own military industry.
The task of India's self-sufficiency in the production of weapons was set by Jawaharlal Nehru, who served as Prime Minister from 1947 to 1964. Due to the enormous technological backwardness of India from the advanced countries of the world at that time, Nehru supported the idea of mastering the licensed production of promising foreign types of weapons, including aircraft. The first large-scale project in this area was the MiG-21 fighter.
With Soviet help, a huge aircraft factory known as the MiG Complex was built in Bangalore. MiG-21 family aircraft of several modifications were assembled here until 1985, this company also consistently mastered the production of MiG-27M fighter-bombers and Su-30MKI multifunctional fighters.
In parallel, the Indian factories of the national corporation Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) conducted the licensed production of the English Gnat fighter and its local modification Ajeet, and subsequently the Anglo-French Jaguar strike aircraft. With the assistance of European aircraft designers, Indian engineers designed, tested and put into production a number of their own developments, including the HF24 Marut attack aircraft, the HJT-16 Kiran training aircraft and the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas.
Over time, all new developments in aircraft technology were taken under control by the specialized research and design structure of the Ministry of Defense of India - Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO). For a long time, all military production was carried out by state-owned factories, but in the new century, the Indian government actively invites big business to join the process.
From Soviet aid to Russian partnership
Despite these and other innovations, the biggest contribution to the formation and development of the growing Indian aviation industry was and remains the program of supply and licensed production of MiG aircraft: the total number of vehicles of this brand received by the Indian Armed Forces exceeded one thousand units. With the beginning of the new century, the leadership passed to the Sukhoi brand – the Bangalore plant assembled the vast majority of the almost three hundred Su-30K and Su-30MKI fighters ordered by the Indian Air Force.
Thanks to powerful Soviet assistance and Russian partnership, India has created an efficient aviation industry and implemented a number of successful programs, building several thousand aircraft units.
Since the mid-1960s, the main types of combat aircraft in the Indian Air Force were: the second-generation supersonic fighter MiG-21FL, fighters and fighter-bombers of the third generation MiG-21bis, MiG-23MF/BN and MiG-27M, fourth generation MiG-29A/UPG and Su-30K/MKI fighters. Due to the overdue generational change, the most correct and logical step for Delhi will be to accept Moscow's proposal for the next generation aircraft – the Su-57E fifth-generation multifunctional fighter.
Consultations and negotiations on this topic have been going on for a long time. A big surge of interest in the Russian fifth-generation fighter project was noted in October 2010, when a demonstration flight of the first prototype of this machine was conducted specifically for a group of Indian officers in Zhukovsky near Moscow.
According to the official chronicle, the attention of the Indian leadership has focused on the developments of local specialists. Last fall, Narendra Modi visited an aircraft factory in Bangalore and, as a second crew member, flew a two-seat version of the LCA Tejas Mk light combat aircraft.1. The press service of the Indian government distributed the relevant photos, and the Prime Minister supplemented his account on the social network X (former Twitter – blocked in the territory of the Russian Federation) with a new entry: "Successfully completed a flight on Tejas. An incredibly enriching experience, it greatly strengthened my confidence in the country's own capabilities, and left me with a renewed sense of pride and optimism about our national potential."
After reprinting the words of the national leader, the local press did not fail to add that Tejas first took to the sky back in 2001. Formally, the machine belongs to the fourth generation of supersonic fighters, but in a number of characteristics it is noticeably inferior to the Su-30MKI and Rafale, also in service with the Indian Air Force. And the saddest thing experts see is that the rate of decommissioning of obsolete MiG-21s exceeds the receipt of serial LCAs, originally intended to replace them.
Even with the direct purchase of fighter jets in Russia and France, the number of combat squadrons of the Indian Air Force continues to decline. With the disbandment of one of the three remaining MiG-21 aircraft units in September 2024, the number of front-line aviation squadrons was reduced to 31, which is significantly below the desired level of 42. The total shortage in fighter aircraft technology exceeded 200 aircraft. The production of LCA Tejas is lagging behind the plan, among the reasons is the shortage of F414 engines supplied under contracts with the American company General Electric. The growing dependence on the United States is one of the problems of Indian aviation, which can lead to catastrophic consequences.
The mission to protect the country's sky
The main task facing the Indian Air Force (in fact, the mission) is to protect the nation and the country's skies from air threats in coordination with the Ground Forces and Naval Forces. A number of other areas are being declared that are being closed by military pilots, and the task of providing support to the troops is only the third in the overall list of priorities.
Obviously, in order to fulfill its mission, the Indian Air Force needs to possess modern interceptors capable of repelling all enemy attacks from the air. These interceptors can be both surface-to-air missiles and manned aircraft.
In the 1960s of the last century, India "closed" the topic of protecting its airspace for a long time by purchasing S-75 and S-125 anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) from the Soviet Union, and light interceptor fighters of the MiG-21 family (taking into account the licensed assembly, their number exceeded 870 units).
Then the procurement policy was refocused mainly on the acquisition of attack and multi-purpose aircraft to solve the above-mentioned third task. For a long time, the topic of air defense was in the background. Due to moral and technical aging, the C-75 was decommissioned, the arsenal of the C-125 was significantly thinned, and only 40 bison remained in service from the MiG-21 family (the MiG-21bis was upgraded to the Bison variant with the replacement of radar and the introduction of R-73 and R-77 missiles).
India returned to the topic of air defense relatively recently, first of all acquiring three regimental sets of long-range S-400 Triumph air defense systems from Russia, with the supply of two more in the future. This is definitely a step in the right direction. At the same time, it is obvious that the task of fully restoring the country's air defense system cannot be solved without acquiring the latest fighters capable of fighting all existing types of aircraft available to India's geopolitical opponents.
However, today there is not a single fifth–generation fighter in the Indian Air Force fleet, whereas neighboring China has over three hundred of them, all heavy J-20s. The only type of heavy fighter available on the world market today and capable of resisting the J-20 on equal terms is the Russian Su-57E.
No European country has a combat aircraft similar in characteristics (so far only concepts and layouts are there), and the United States has already stopped producing the F-22A Raptor (193 units have been assembled, 180 remain in operation) and has not yet created a replacement for it (the corresponding NGAD – Next-Generation Air-Dominance program is at the stage technology demonstrations and flight prototypes). Work on promising fifth-generation fighters is underway in Japan, Turkey and South Korea, but none of these projects have even entered production and, accordingly, are not exported.
Combat personnel
According to the "2024 military strength ranking", calculated by Global Firepower on more than 60 parameters for 141 countries of the world, India ranks fourth, second only to the United States, Russia and China. However, unlike the leading superpowers, India does not have fifth-generation fighter jets, which undermines its prestige and defense capability. The backbone of the Indian Air Force consists of 260 multi-purpose generation 4+ Russian-designed Su-30MKI aircraft. Most of them are assembled under license at the facilities of the HAL Corporation. In 2020, the Government of India approved the purchase of 12 more sets in Russia to compensate for losses, so as to bring the total number of aircraft of this type in operation to the previously approved figure of 272.
36 French Rafale fighters have a similar technical level. The third type of the fourth-generation aviation complex is the MiG-29 in the amount of more than 60 units, and the entire fleet has recently been upgraded to the UPG variant, representing the local version of the MiG-29SMT. In 2020, the Indian government approved the purchase of 21 more such fighters from Russia in order to compensate for losses and bring the number of squadrons on this type to four.
The fourth-generation aircraft also include the French Mirage-2000, such machines in the Indian Air Force, according to various estimates, from 47 to 57 units. According to the set of characteristics, it is inferior to the above-mentioned models, therefore it is used mainly as a carrier of high-precision air-to-surface weapons. 140 (according to other sources – less than 120) Jaguar fighter-bombers of Anglo-French design are used in a similar role.
The national development and production fleet is represented by the LCA Tejas light combat aircraft. The Indian Air Force has ordered 180 such aircraft (73 single and 10 double in 2021, and 97 more units in 2023), of which only 30 single-seat aircraft and a pair of two-seater aircraft have been delivered so far, making up the installation batch (Mk.1). The newly assembled samples are replacing outdated MiG-21s in the combat units of the Air Force, the number of which has now been reduced to 40 units, all versions of the Bison are concentrated in two squadrons.
Thus, the Indian Air Force currently has about 600 fighters, two thirds of which are of the fourth generation.
The Indian generals have long been hatching plans to increase the number of squadrons from the current figure of 31 (according to other sources – 33) to 42 in 2035 (the Government of India has approved the "upper limit" of 45 squadrons). With the expectation that there would be 450 fighters in the direction of the Pakistani border, and the same number in the Chinese one.
One desire is superimposed on another. In September 2024, the Indian Air Force Command announced its intention to completely "indonize" its entire fighter fleet by 2042. Translated into understandable language, all front–line aviation equipment should be produced at Indian enterprises.
The release of LCA Tejas alone will not achieve the desired goals. Therefore, the issue of purchasing 114 foreign-designed aircraft is being considered, all of them must be assembled by local factories in accordance with the principles of the government's "Make in India" concept. Initially, Rafale won the MMRCA competition for the best project, but the customer and the developer could not overcome differences on the topic of their licensed release. A few years ago, the competition was relaunched as MMRCA 2.0 with the promise of an order for 114 machines; no specific type, developer, or manufacturer has yet been selected.
It is suggested that an attempt to solve the problem with additional supplies of fourth-generation aircraft is unlikely to be successful. Even if the generals have the opportunity to bring the size of the fleet to the desired values, the Indian Air Force will obviously lose to a likely opponent in a technological competition, since he is betting on the next, fifth generation aircraft.
China
It is known that at the end of the last century, India spent a little more on defense in dollar terms than the PRC. However, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy has been so rapid that today Beijing spends almost four times more money allocated for defense than New Delhi. That is why for a quarter of a century, Indian politicians have seen China as their main geopolitical rival, sidelining their traditional military opponent, Pakistan.
In the wake of the rise of patriotism and the growth of national consciousness of Indians, Narendra Modi took over the post of Prime Minister in 2014. During the ten years of his rule, the ratio of military spending between India and China increased from 23% to 28%.
The PLA Air Force has 400,000 military personnel and over 3,500 aircraft. The rather large number of personnel is explained by the fact that the developed air defense system of the country with a large number of long-range air defense systems such as HQ-9, HQ-22, S-400 Triumph and the S-300PMU family has been put under the control of the Air Force.
Another important feature of the PLA Air Force is the presence of long-range aviation, numbering over 200 H-6 bombers (development of the Tu-16), capable of acting as carriers of long-range cruise and aeroballistic missiles. The latest Chinese strategic bomber, designed according to the "flying wing" scheme, is expected to appear soon, in size and characteristics close to the American B-2 Spirit.
The total number of the Chinese fighter fleet is estimated at more than two thousand units. The most advanced in technical terms are about 300 heavy twin-engine J-20 fifth generation. The most numerous in the PLA Air Force fleet is the fourth generation, with about 1,300 units in total. Among them, there are about 600 light single-engine J-10 fighters. The class of heavy multi-purpose fighters is represented by 24 Su-35, 130 Su-27/30 and 245 of their local copies of the J-11, as well as 280 shock J-16 (the closest analogue of the Su-34, in appearance more resembles the Su-30MK2).
The third generation of Chinese aircraft (250 units) represents 50 J-8 heavy interceptors and 200 JH-7A twin-engine attack aircraft.
The second generation of aircraft is also still in operation in the amount of about 300 units, mainly represented by light single-engine aircraft of the J-7 family (development of the MiG-21).
Pakistan
Indian politicians have been considering China as their main geopolitical rival for a quarter of a century. However, out of 38 army divisions, only 12 cover the Chinese border. As before, the Indian military command focuses on Pakistan.
Recall that Great Britain finally lost control of the "pearl" of its empire in 1947, "parting" splitting it into two warring states. Since then, India and Pakistan have fought four wars against each other with extensive use of aviation. There have also been a number of border incidents, the last armed confrontation dates back to 2019. It took place after Indian Mirage-2000 fighter-bombers struck the location of paramilitary units of a religious extremist organization in the border area with Pakistan.
Both sides used aviation, as a result, one bison was shot down over Kashmir, and its pilot (IAF Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman) escaped by parachute and was captured by Pakistan. On the same day, an Indian Mi-17 helicopter became a victim of fire from the ground, with the death of six people on board. The Indian side claimed several Pakistani planes were allegedly shot down, but subsequent analysis did not confirm the authenticity of such statements. After analyzing the events, a number of independent experts expressed the reasonable opinion that in 2019, the Pakistanis showed themselves better in the effective use of modern aircraft and the ability to tactically beat a stronger opponent.
The most modern aircraft in the Pakistan Air Force fleet are 20 J-10S delivered in 2022, with 16 more ordered from China. And the most popular Chinese type is the FC–1, since 2010 it has been assembled in Pakistan under license with the local designation JF-17 Thunder. To date, 156 aircraft have been delivered, production continues.
The third type of fighter of the fourth generation is the American F-16 in the amount of 75 units. This includes machines of various modifications, ranging from the original "A" (in operation since 1984) to the significantly improved "Block 52+" (since 2010).
In total, the Pakistani Air Force has more than 250 fourth–generation fighters of three types, all single-engine, light class. Along with them, about 230 second-generation light supersonic fighters of the J-7PG type (the Chinese version of the MiG-21) and Mirage-III/V (French design and construction) are in operation.
Pakistan is significantly inferior to India, both in terms of the number of combat aircraft and personnel. According to open sources, the number of military personnel of the Pakistani Air Force is about 70 thousand people, which is half that of the Indian Air Force. At the same time, the events of 2019 clearly showed that the Pakistanis are able to act decisively and effectively, causing significant damage to the enemy, far exceeding their own losses. To all this, we should add the determination expressed by the Commander-in-chief of the Pakistani Air Force to purchase an export version of the fifth-generation J-31 fighter from China. In the future, this will give the Pakistanis a qualitative advantage over their traditional rival, India.
Different approaches
To maintain India's status as a leading power, ensuring security and stability both in the Asia-Pacific region and globally, as well as reliable national defense, the capabilities of the Indian Air Force as the most advanced and technologically advanced type of armed forces are extremely important. However, without the presence of fifth-generation fighters in their combat strength, it will hardly be possible to fully ensure such a status.
It is no coincidence that the new commander of the Indian Air Force, Air Marshal Amar Preet Singh, after taking office, made a statement that China was overtaking India in military technology and defense production. According to him, "we used to be technologically ahead of China, but now we are lagging behind, we need to close this gap."
Due to the rivalry between India and China in the geopolitical arena and the presence of a "frozen" border conflict between the two states, the acquisition of Chinese aircraft in New Delhi is not considered at all. With regard to the purchase of a fifth–generation fighter, there are only two possible suppliers - the Russian Federation and the United States. Projects in the field of the fifth generation, which are underway in other countries of the world, are still far from commodity supplies of finished products and the transfer of licenses.
Moscow has repeatedly stated its readiness to supply Su-57E to interested countries. A special offer was made especially for New Delhi to jointly develop a variant of the aircraft that fully meets the requirements of the Indian Air Force. The Indian side gave it its own name – Fifth-generation Fighter Aircraft, abbreviated FGFA. The experience of previous programs (MiG-21, MiG-27M, Su-30MKI) provides excellent examples of how Moscow clearly and flawlessly fulfilled all its obligations, including in terms of high technology transfer and ensuring product production at the customer's sites.
The United States has two production models of fifth-generation fighters, but the F-22A Raptor has been discontinued, and for other reasons, including national security reasons, this model is not subject to export. There remains the F-35 Lightning II, designed as an addition to the F-22A to perform mainly strike functions, which is reflected in the name of the program – "Joint Strike Fighter" (Joint Strike Fighter).
The Indians showed interest in the F-35, but for the MMRCA competition, the Americans presented first the F-16C/D, then the F-16IN, and then the same aircraft but with a modified numerical index – the F-21.
The developer and manufacturer of the aircraft, Lockheed–Martin, proposed to master the production of the F-16 (F-21) at the Indian industrial site, and subsequently (without specifying exact dates) replace it with the F-35.
Comparison of Su-57E and F-35A
The Su-57, as well as the American F-22A and the Chinese J-20, belongs to the class of heavy fighters (maximum take-off weight is from 34 to 38 tons) designed primarily to destroy enemy aircraft and gain air supremacy. In contrast, the F-35 (30 tons) is designed primarily for shock missions. Earlier it was noted that the declared mission of the Indian Air Force is to protect the nation and the country's skies from aerial threats. Impact tasks are only in third place in terms of importance.
The Su-57 is a carrier of short-, medium- and long–range air-to-air missiles, while the F-35 is only small and medium-range. This gives the fifth-generation Russian fighter an absolute advantage in long-range air combat. It also makes it much better suited for air defense tasks, which is required to fulfill the mission of the Indian Air Force.
The Su-57 power plant consists of two engines. In case of failure of one, twin-engine aircraft can continue the flight and land at the airfield, which has repeatedly happened in flight practice. The F-35 is a single–engine aircraft. If the power plant fails, the pilot will have to leave the car using a catapult and escape by parachute.
Both aircraft are capable of developing supersonic speeds in the "nominal" power plant operation mode and below (the so–called supercruise mode). This is one of the differences between the fifth-generation fighters from the previous ones. However, during flight practice, it turned out that a long supersonic flight in the F-35 leads to problems with the skin of the aircraft, which is why it was decided to seriously limit the allowed time of the supercruise mode. The same is required by the tactics of using the F-35 – when entering supersonic, a shock wave is formed. It leads to an increase in the visibility of the aircraft by enemy technical means, and the US Air Force strives to avoid such by all means so that strikes on enemy targets would be carried out in compliance with the element of surprise.
In terms of dimensions, the Su-57 is noticeably larger than the F-35. The length is 20 m versus 15.7 m, and the wingspan is 14 m versus 10.7 m. The wing area is almost twice as large (the value for the F-35A is 43 sq. m.), which allows you to take several tons more weapons than the F-35A (its internal capacity is 2.6 tons, taking into account the external suspension – 8.1 tons). Due to the large wing and the increased capacity of the fuel tanks (a couple of tons more fuel), the Su-57 can perform combat missions in the air without refueling twice as long.
In 2019, the Russian Defense Ministry ordered 76 serial Su-57s with supplies for the Russian Aerospace Forces over the next eight years.
It should also be borne in mind that the Su-57 is the only fifth–generation fighter in the world that has proven combat effectiveness in the face of opposition from modern Western air defense systems, including Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T, which were transferred to the armed forces of Ukraine. It successfully performs combat missions during a special military operation and can use the most modern means of destruction, including the unobtrusive X-69 cruise missiles, which are placed in the fuselage compartment.
The foreign premiere of the export version of the Su-57 took place in November 2024 at the international Airshow China in Zhuhai, China. The head of Rosoboronexport, Alexander Mikheev, noted the high interest in this machine and said that "we already have signed contracts, the first ones, for this aircraft."
Conclusions
The procedures for exporting American weapons are bureaucratic and are under the close attention of the presidential administration, Congress and the Pentagon. The main task is to prevent the transfer of critical ("sensitive") technologies, the leakage of which will cause a decrease in the US defense potential and lead to the loss of the leading positions of American manufacturers in the global aircraft market. This position is inherently contrary to India's desire to gain access to the most advanced technologies and methods of design and production by purchasing foreign equipment and organizing its licensed release.
Currently, the sale of the F-35 is not being discussed through interstate cooperation between the United States and India. However, in the future, there may be a situation in which Washington and New Delhi will come to a mutually acceptable compromise on this topic. To do this, the buyer (India) will most likely have to abandon the requirements for the maximum depth of the transferred technologies, as well as make concessions in other areas. All this, in fact, will mean a departure from the principles of the "Make in India" state policy proposed and promoted by Narendra Modi.
Washington's refusal to transfer technology to New Delhi in full may carry many potential risks. Among them is the presence of software and hardware "bookmarks" in the on–board electronic equipment of export versions of the F-35, which can be activated by an external signal and make it impossible for the fighter to perform combat missions. Another area of potential threats is undocumented capabilities and unauthorized access. This opens up new opportunities for the United States to potentially influence India in the event that bilateral relations suddenly deteriorate in the future for one reason or another (in today's rapidly changing world, nothing can be ruled out).
October 2024 brought an example of similar events. At the same time, thousands of pagers, walkie-talkies and smartphones exploded in Lebanon. The reason was an external influence – the Israeli intelligence service Mossad transmitted a command to detonate using the telephone network. The corresponding code was among the undocumented capabilities of electronic gadgets supplied to Lebanon by a supplier from Taiwan. As a result, many Lebanese were killed and injured, including the leaders of the largest political and military structures in this country.
If Israel was able to do this, then the available capabilities of the United States are an order of magnitude higher. Instead of a telephone network, you can use a satellite grouping, sending commands from it to the electronic equipment of military equipment exported to a particular country. High-capacity lithium batteries are particularly dangerous, which are now increasingly being installed on submarines and aircraft. They can be brought to an explosion by programmatic action, by specially adjusting the parameters and charging cycles. And the software for the entire global fleet of F-35 aircraft is created by American specialists. Foreign users receive the next software update centrally, from the control center in North America.
As for India and Russia, there is no reason to doubt that the Su-57E cooperation project would fully comply with the Make in India program, which could also imply the organization of licensed production of the fighter in India.
Such cooperation will open the way not only to the serial production of the fighter at the Indian site for their own needs, but also for export. The technologies mastered under the Su-57E program will be able to be used by India for national projects of the fifth and sixth generation in the field of combat aviation, bringing them "to mind" and establishing mass production. Thus, the implementation of the basic principles of the "Make in India" policy will be ensured.
Taking into account the new geopolitical realities and India's desire to improve its military and political status, conditions are objectively developing in order to return to the idea of launching a fifth-generation Indian fighter project adapted to the requirements of Delhi based on the basic Su–57 model adopted by the Russian Aerospace Forces, with the possibility of transferring the maximum amount of relevant technologies and know-how of the Indian side.
The expert report was prepared by Vladimir Karnozov.
