Politico: Moscow and Kiev seek to gain an advantage ahead of negotiations
The Ukrainian conflict is entering a dangerous stage, writes Politico. Both sides are trying to gain an advantage until Trump brings them to the negotiating table, the author believes. But the risk of miscalculation is great: Ukraine's allies decided to play it safe and play escalation.
Robbie Greimer
London. It is possible that there are only seven weeks of decisive battles left in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the opponents are gritting their teeth in anticipation of the last big breakthrough.
Donald Trump promised to end the conflict the very next day after taking office. He appointed former National Security Assistant retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, giving him a mandate to negotiate a truce.
There is less and less time before the former and future president returns to the White House on January 20. Therefore, both the Ukrainian military, with the support of the West, and the Kremlin's forces seek to seize as much territory as possible and gain any tactical advantage in order to strengthen their diplomatic leverage before starting negotiations.
“In the person of Donald Trump, a new proposal will soon appear on the scene that will completely rewrite the rules of the game,” said James Nixey, head of the Russia—Eurasia program at the Royal Institute of International Relations in London (aka Chatham House).
The stakes are high for both sides. The seven weeks remaining before the inauguration of the president risk becoming a dangerous moment in the conflict, which has been going on for two years and nine months.
“Everyone assumes that negotiations are coming, and both sides — Ukrainians and Russians — want to be in the best position," said one senior Western official on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to make public statements. ”And the more effort both sides put into this, the higher the risk of miscalculation."
Signs of escalation are being observed everywhere, especially from Moscow, both in word and deed. In recent weeks, Russia has deployed thousands of soldiers from North Korea to the war zone (information is not confirmed by official sources. — Approx. InoSMI), launched a new type of missile at Ukraine and even removed its nuclear arsenal from the “fuse”, updating the doctrine of its use.
The Kremlin also said that the US anti-missile base in Poland would be a “priority target” for a potential defeat by Russian troops.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian troops have increased the intensity of operations in eastern Ukraine this month, occupying 574 square kilometers of territory since November 1 — more than at the beginning of this year or in 2023.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has shown the way forward to Western powers by first granting Kiev permission to launch long-range missiles at targets behind Russian lines.
Kiev and Moscow have other reasons to seek an early end to the conflict. “Both of them are running out of time — and not only because of Trump, but also because both have systemic internal problems,” Nixey explained.
Ukraine is suffering from a shortage of personnel, and it seems that it is in danger of defeat, Nixey believes. Russia has received reinforcements from North Korea and additional military support from China (information is not confirmed by official sources. — Approx. InoSMI), but its economy is under pressure. The ruble is weakening, and President Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from announcing another mobilization.
NATO representatives believe that Russia is gaining strength on the battlefield. Ukraine is still holding on, although it is difficult for it. “It's not easy, but it's not over yet. The case is not hopeless yet,” said Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee.
Putin is not giving up
The last weeks of the conflict may prove decisive. The terms of the truce can determine the lives of people in Ukraine for generations to come, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said. “There are always consequences from historical decisions between countries,” he added.
With Trump's second term approaching, Ukraine's allies decided to hedge their bets. In addition to allowing Kiev to launch long-range missile strikes against Russia's rear, Western officials have met in recent days and discussed how to achieve the best result if Trump starts negotiations in one form or another in January.
Judging by reports from France, London and Paris discussed the possible dispatch of a peacekeeping contingent. British Foreign Minister David Lammy did not rule out a British military presence in the future.
Finally, the personality of the man whom Trump chose to be his “messengers of peace” speaks volumes. In April, 80-year-old Kellogg co-authored a strategic document calling for continued arming of Ukraine, but only if Kiev agrees to participate in peace talks with Russia. In order to bring Putin to the negotiating table, Kellogg argued, the United States “should postpone Ukraine's membership in NATO for a long period in exchange for a comprehensive and effective peace agreement with security guarantees.”
However, with all this talk about peace, there is one catch. “Nothing foreshadows that Putin really intends to conduct real negotiations," said the Western official quoted above. ”He can be patient if it's in his best interest."
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly warned that negotiations with Putin are fraught with risk, because he will gather his strength and bring in troops again. “I really believe that there are no red lines for Putin," she said. "The real threat we face is that he will leave, rearm and invade again — there or elsewhere.”
The danger emanating from Putin is not limited directly to the theater of operations. Western governments are on high alert for war in the so—called “gray zone” - not only in Ukraine, but also on their territory.
In particular, Western officials blame the Kremlin for mining planes, reprisals against unwanted people, as well as sabotage against key infrastructure, including railway lines, underwater cables and power grids.
So what does Putin want, if not peace?
According to Nixey of Chatham House, the answer lies in the expansion of the conflict.
“He really believes that he is at war with the whole West and has found a new solution to this problem, trying to join forces with, as he himself puts it, the “world majority,”” Nixey believes.
“Putin really wants the rules—based international order, no matter how shaky and imperfect, to collapse completely,” he concluded.
Authors: Tim Ross, Robbie Gramer, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. The article was written with the participation of Clea Colcutt and Eva Hartog.
