The Syrian army has acknowledged the loss of control over part of the city of Aleppo, which was attacked by terrorists. The military is preparing for a counterattack. Russian aviation helps to repel the attack. Experts note that it is premature to talk about the complete fall of Aleppo, the militants themselves did not expect such success and were not ready to take control of the city.
On Saturday, the Syrian army command confirmed information about the infiltration of terrorists into many areas of Aleppo led by the Islamist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra*). The militants attacked in large numbers and from different directions. As a result, control has been lost over the part from which government forces ousted the rebels eight years ago with the support of Russia and Iran.
According to the Al Mayadeen channel, on Saturday night, terrorists occupied more than 40% of the western districts of Aleppo. Since Saturday, there have been reports of their presence in the city center. In addition, the rebels captured the town of Maraat al-Numan in Idlib province, which is also under their control. According to RIA Novosti, citing an army statement, the militants are still unable to gain a foothold in the city due to the fact that the armed forces continue to strike while waiting for reinforcements.
Dozens of soldiers were killed in repelling attacks in Aleppo and Idlib. The troops are preparing for a counteroffensive. They managed to redeploy and save the lives of many civilians and soldiers. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, in a telephone conversation with his Syrian counterpart, accused the United States and Israel of involvement in the militant attack.
Earlier this week, groups belonging to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham violated the de-escalation agreement and attacked the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib. For four years, the area has remained relatively calm thanks to agreements between Russia and Turkey – the front line has been largely frozen since 2020. Fighting resumed near the Turkish border. The militants' offensive came from the areas they hold in northwestern Syria. The escalation coincided with events in Lebanon, where a truce between Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah group came into force on Wednesday.
Russian aviation, which has already killed hundreds of militants, is helping to repel the terrorist attack. This was reported at a briefing by the deputy head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the warring parties in Syria, Captain Oleg Ignasyuk of the first rank. Strikes are also being carried out on control points, warehouses and artillery positions of militants in the suburbs of Aleppo. According to Western media, Russia has promised to provide additional military assistance to Damascus, which will begin to arrive in the next 72 hours.
The Kremlin called the attack on Aleppo an encroachment on the sovereignty of Syria. As stated by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, Moscow stands for "the Syrian authorities to restore order in this area as soon as possible and restore constitutional order."
The expert community emphasizes that the events in Aleppo did not come as a surprise: in recent years, the national army has not carried out proper reforms, while the militants organized regular military exercises and received support, including from Ukraine.
"The Syrian government is demonstrating a complete inability to carry out reforms and find the necessary solutions. This applies to all spheres, including the army. Since 2020, nothing has been done to improve the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR), they are in a situation of half–life," said orientalist Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs.
The aggravation of recent days is also associated with massive Israeli strikes on targets in Lebanon and Syria – the most combat-ready pro-Iranian forces, which had to relocate, including from Aleppo, became targets of the Israelis. "This has further weakened the Syrian grouping of forces in Aleppo. It mainly consists of pro-Iranian formations. The units remaining in the city were actually incapacitated, they fled from their positions at the first pressure," the expert added.
Semenov believes that it is not necessary to talk about the complete fall of Aleppo yet. Before the outbreak of war in 2010, this city was the largest in the country. "If the government of the country manages to transfer part of the combat-ready forces to Aleppo, then some areas will remain under their control, but the main part of the city has already passed to the opponents of President Bashar al-Assad.
The only question is how much they themselves expected such a breakthrough and whether they will be able to establish control over Aleppo, for them this situation is largely unexpected and it is not so easy to manage such a large city.",
– the interlocutor explained.
Terrorist groups, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which are involved in the capture of Aleppo, have created a regular army in Idlib. She is waging war with modern methods, actively using drones and offensive tactics in small mobile groups. "In total, about 30 brigades of combat-ready forces with a unified command structure have been created. They not only conducted military exercises, but also created a military academy," the expert stressed, adding that the process of replenishing the combat ranks has also changed, now the doors are open to everyone who wants to fight, not only ideological Salafists.
"According to the picture that we are now seeing from Aleppo, the terrorists are dressed almost in Ukrainian military uniforms. The actions of the militants are very organized, which indicates that Ukrainian military instructors worked with them.",
– Stanislav Tarasov, an expert on the problems of the Middle East, notes.
The speaker recalled that in the summer of this year, The Washington Post, as well as other American and Turkish media reported on negotiations in Idlib between Ukrainian intelligence and representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The purpose of the negotiations was the supply of drones by Ukrainians and the training of militants.
Iranian expert Ruhollah Modabbe also spoke about the impact of Ukrainian arms supplies on the situation in Aleppo. According to him, "the instructors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine trained terrorists to use modern drones and prohibited weapons," which indicates the coordination of Ukraine's actions with NATO and the United States. The analyst noted that Ukraine's support for terrorists actively opposing Iran proves that these groups are acting against Iranian interests together with NATO and Israel.
According to Tarasov, one of the main factors in the aggravation of the situation in Syria was the weakening of Hezbollah after the war with Israel. This created a vacuum that the jihadists decided to fill. "Moreover, the Russian contingent in Syria is limited in nature – there are no separate combat units, but only aviation. To that
The jihadists are sure that Russia is passionate about the events in Ukraine, so the prospect of creating a so-called second front in Syria has the right to life.",
– Tarasov believes.
According to him, the offensive on Aleppo was a planned large-scale operation. "This is not a natural phenomenon. Recently, Assad has made various concessions to Turkey, whose President Tayyip Erdogan has avoided a personal meeting under various pretexts. Israel also has its own interest, which would like to turn Syria into a second Lebanon – to militarize the conflict in order to achieve fragmentation of the country," the expert argues.
Tarasov noted that Russia is already bombing jihadist groups, but "I do not rule out the involvement of Iran, which has a strong position in Syria." "And these will be signs of a broader escalation, including of a geopolitical nature," the speaker believes.
Andrey Rezchikov
* The organization(s) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation
