Trump's envoy for Ukraine, Kellogg, intends to promote peace through force
US President-elect Donald Trump has appointed retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as assistant to the head of state and special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg has already stated that he is ready to defend the interests of the United States by promoting the concept of "peace through force." How he proposes to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, what role he will play in the settlement and what significance his age may have - in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
Donald Trump expressed confidence that together with Kellogg he will be able to achieve security and "peace through force." Lieutenant General Kellogg himself has already stated that he looks forward to "tireless work to ensure peace through force, defending America's interests."
Joseph Keith Kellogg Jr. was born on May 12, 1944, that is, a veteran who has overcome the 80-year milestone in his life will play a major role in attempts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.
Of course, against the background of Trump himself (78 years old) Keith Kellogg doesn't look too old, but, anyway, starting at the age of 80, a person undergoes serious changes both physically and psychologically. Important functions of the body are significantly reduced, memory, attention, the ability to think and analyze weaken. One can only hope that all these phenomena have passed Keith Kellogg, and he adheres to the principle of "I will be forever young" in his life.
How do they want to "put pressure" on Moscow and Kiev?
As for the peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by Keith Kellogg, according to many experts, it looks quite simple, and in some places even quite realistic. To begin with, we note that the United States has very effective levers of influence on both Ukraine and Russia.
As you know, today Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky demonstrates an unwavering determination to fight to the last soldier for every square meter of the territory of his state. However, such a firm position can be overcome with extraordinary ease by stopping the supply of weapons, military and special equipment and suspending funding from the United States. In this case, there will be no trace of the intransigence and inflexibility of Zelensky and his inner circle during the day.
In the meantime, Kiev insists that the start of negotiations is possible if the situation on the fronts is returned to at least the state before the start of its own. And this, according to Ukrainian politicians, will be the starting point for a subsequent settlement.
Advantageous negotiating positions (and their creation is envisaged, again, before the start of possible negotiations), according to Kiev, consist in inviting Ukraine to NATO, increasing military support without limiting the combat use of weapons and forming a non-nuclear deterrence package.
The United States, as it is believed in the emerging White House administration, has no less effective levers of influence on Moscow, both financially and economically (in this regard, not everything has been put into effect by Washington) and purely military.
The Kremlin's disagreement with Donald Trump's peace plan is supposed to be overcome by the possibility of a sharp increase in the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, including providing Kiev with missiles with a firing range of several thousand kilometers (for example, Tomahawk missiles, and this has long been talked about).
Whose plan is it?
Kellogg's plan (and most likely, these are Trump's own theses) assumes that a cease-fire will be reached before any negotiations begin. Also, at this point, it is planned to fix the line of contact. To soften the Kremlin's position, it is proposed to postpone Ukraine's accession to the alliance and form security guarantees for Kiev (what they will be and who will be the guarantor is not yet clear).
It is unlikely that Kellogg will play a fundamental role in hypothetical negotiations and make major decisions on core settlement issues. For any sudden change in the situation during the negotiations, he will contact the US president and clarify his position, taking into account the opinion of the head of state. And it is unlikely to be any other way.
Finally, as for such a trifle as the absence of the position of assistant to the head of state and special envoy for Ukraine and Russia in the schedule of the White House administration, this problem is overcome with a stroke of the pen of the US president.
In conclusion, we note that any real steps towards a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine are unlikely to be taken before January 20, 2025, that is, before Donald Trump officially takes office. And by that time, the situation on the fronts of its own can significantly affect the content of the theses of the Kellogg plan. And no matter how the American side has to radically correct them.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
