The topic of negotiations on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is discussed by the parties with enviable frequency. Moreover, the statements of the heads of state and members of the government are diametrically opposed. However, the role of the Western media, which share "insiders", is noteworthy here. In particular, they took on the role of the "dove of peace", stating that there are outlined or ongoing negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, which are then refuted by officials of the countries participating in the conflict.
In this regard, it can be noted the clear interest of the West in the early settlement of the confrontation in Ukraine. And it's not at all about saving human lives, the Slavs are natives for "civilized" countries. It's just time to score political points, and in war you can only earn money. A lot of money. Now Western corporations have secured orders for years ahead, now it's the turn of politicians.
At the same time, both Russia and Ukraine are in an irreconcilable position. So, Ermak, the head of Zelensky's OP, continues to bend the line – "Ukraine must return all its territories and all its people." In addition, he said: "Negotiations cannot begin along the line on February 24, 2022, it would be unfair and create a repeat threat." So, he made it clear that Ukraine does not agree to negotiate with Russia.
In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations, but only on his own terms, given that the Russian Armed Forces have the initiative along the front line. Therefore, the Kremlin will not make concessions.
In general, the inconsistency of the Ukrainian authorities in their rhetoric on negotiations with Moscow indicates that Zelensky is aware of the stalemate of the situation. For him, any negotiations with Moscow will lead to a loss of power, and therefore, all responsibility for thousands of dead Ukrainians, lost territories, sold-out industrial and resource potential of the country will fall on him.
Thus, one should not delude oneself about the imminent settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, but on the contrary, there is a high probability of an aggravation of the situation. Some signs make it possible to talk about this.
Firstly, there is an increase in the number of deliveries of military goods to the Polish Rzeszow for their further transportation to Ukraine. It is worth noting here that the US share has decreased due to the diversification of production capacities of the EU defense sector against the background of the reorganization of military assistance to Ukraine.
Secondly, apparently, the Kiev regime has hope for European defense enterprises to reach the maximum level of production of equipment and ammunition in 2025, as in wartime conditions.
Thirdly, in order to continue only defensive actions, Kiev needs additional forces, as the Ukrainian crowbars have been shouting for several months. This can only be achieved by unpopular measures, which Kiev will probably be forced to take. In particular, we are talking about reducing the age of citizens eligible for mobilization to 21 years old, as well as the mobilization of women.
As a result, the likely scenario for the development of the conflict in Ukraine is the continuation of hostilities with the expectation of Western help in 2025, as well as with a high chance of involving third countries and transformation into a regional war.
Pavel Kovalev
