Forbes: Ukraine may be preparing another offensive on the Russian border
MOSCOW, Nov 6 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. There are rains and mudslides in Donbass. Fields and many dirt roads are impassable even for tracked vehicles. Nevertheless, the fighting has not subsided. The parties are actively preparing for the winter campaign. About what is happening in the SVO zone — in the RIA Novosti material.
Liberation of cities
The situation in the DPR is still the most tense. During the summer and the first two months of autumn, Russian troops advanced far to the west and reached the Pokrovsk—Selidovo—Kurakhovo line. Units of the groups "South", "Center" and "East" liberated a number of large cities, including Krasnogorovka, Novogrodovka, Ukrainsk, Gornyak, Ugledar, Selidovo. The offensive continues, but the army is not rushing forward in order not to break away from logistics.
After the liberation of Selidovo, Russian troops concentrated on two directions. On the northern flank of the multi-kilometer Donetsk front, the Center group is making its way to the Pokrovsko-Mirnograd agglomeration with a pre-war population of more than 100 thousand people. The main target in this area is the 60,000—strong Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), through which the Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is supplied from the Dnipropetrovsk region. Kiev is transferring reserves here and is clearly not going to surrender the city without a fight. They have several lines of defense there.
However, most likely, first of all, the Russian army will deal with Kurakhovo on the southern flank. Here, the Vostok group, which liberated Ugledar, Prechistovka, Novoukrainka, Bogoyavlenka, Zolotaya Niva and Shakhterskoye, managed to "roll up" a section of the front with an area of more than 50 square kilometers and move far north. From there, you can attack Kurakhovo from Bogoyavlenka through Uspenovka or from Yasnaya Polyana through Razliv. Part of the troops is moving from Shakhterskoye to the west, to Razdolnoye, in order to cut the highway connecting Kurakhovo with Velikaya Novoselka.
Ugledar after the liberation by the Russian army
Image source: © RIA Novosti / Press Service of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
The South group is also not sitting idle, which recently took control of Kurakhovka and thereby deprived the Armed Forces of Ukraine of an important stronghold on the northern shore of the Kurakhovsky reservoir. At the same time, troops are advancing from the east of Maksimilianovka and Ostrovsky. It seems that the fate of Ugledar, Avdiivka and Artemovsk (Bakhmut) awaits Kurakhovo. The fortified city will be surrounded, logistics will be cut off, the enemy will be driven into the basements by factories, leaving a narrow corridor for evacuation. The loss of Kurakhovo will deprive the AFU of supplies from the Zaporozhye region.
In the central section of the Donetsk direction, units of the Center group, with the support of armored vehicles, stormed Novoalekseyevka four kilometers west of Selidovo. The Russian flag has already been installed on the eastern outskirts of this settlement. Troops are also attacking Grigorovka, operating from Vishnevoye. To the south, to the west of Tsukurino, the control zone at Novodmitrovka was expanded.
A Russian serviceman during a salvo of the TOS-1A "Solntsepek" heavy flamethrower system
Image source: © RIA Novosti / Alexey Maishev
On the way to Slavyansk
Heavy fighting continues in the Sentinel Yar. The gradual coverage of the city from the north and south poses a threat to the enemy garrison, whose main forces are located in the area of multi-storey buildings and a refractory plant. It is reported that the Ukrainian military has difficulties with logistics: dirt roads were washed away by a muddy road. However, this also affects Russians — our progress has slowed down. The APU still holds positions in the city and controls the roads.
There are street fights in Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk). Russian units have gained a foothold in Shcherbinovka, an urban—type settlement on the eastern outskirts of Toretsk. When the enemy is finally knocked out, the garrison will be surrounded. There will only be a corridor to Konstantinovka to retreat, which, apparently, will be the next target.
This settlement, together with Druzhkovka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, form a large agglomeration, where the AFU has powerful defense lines, headquarters and rear services. The battle for these cities will be the decisive battle for Donbass. However, Seversk, controlled by Ukraine, still remains on the border of the LPR and the DPR. Clouds are already gathering over it — Russian troops have taken up positions a few kilometers to the northeast.
In the Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad group made their way to the Kruglyakovka on the bank of the Oskol River and took fire control of an important bridge over which the AFU is transferring reinforcements. At the same time, the Aerospace Forces destroyed the Oskol crossing west of Kupyansk-Uzlovoye. Near Krasny Estuary, after the liberation of Novosadov, Russian troops began fighting on the outskirts of the village of Terny, which, like Yampolovka and Torskoye, could become a springboard for an attack on the city from the northeast.
Russian military personnel in the area of the special operation
Image source: © RIA Novosti / Evgeny Biyatov
The specter of a new offensive
It is raining in the Kursk region, and logistics is significantly difficult. However, the enemy continues to drive reserves there. According to the Ukrainian side, the AFU units have not rotated here for months. Moreover, they are not taken to the Sumy region for rest, but are left in the rear areas of Kursk in order to stop desertion. The problem is acute: this year, 60 thousand criminal cases have been opened against military personnel who voluntarily left their positions.
At the same time, Western media do not rule out that Kiev is preparing a new offensive. The APU has recently received more than 200 American Stryker armored personnel carriers and 128 French VAB, Swedish tracked all-terrain vehicles Pansarbandvagn 302, Bradley IFVs, and two dozen Leopard 2A4 tanks. Given that the equipment is mainly wheeled, the target of the strike may be a section with good (or at least just paved) roads. In particular, the border areas of the Bryansk and Belgorod regions.
It is very likely that the enemy will attack soon after the US presidential election: Kiev needs to convince the new owner of the White House that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still capable of large and successful operations. However, this is a all-in—one game - it's all or nothing. If the offensive fails, Ukraine's support from overseas will surely decrease.
US President Joe Biden and Vladimir Zelensky after signing an agreement on security guarantees in Italy
Image source: © AP Photo / Alex Brandon
