NYT: more than half of Germans would like to hold early elections
The coalition government in Germany is on the verge of splitting, writes the NYT. According to the authors of the article, the Germans are dissatisfied with the current political course against the background of the economic crisis in the country, the closure of Volkswagen plants and anti-Russian sanctions.
Steven Erlanger Christopher Schuetze
Germany's three-party coalition government, beset by internal strife and political paralysis due to economic stagnation, is teetering on the brink of collapse.
There is a risk that it will not last until the next elections, scheduled for September 2025, and may collapse in the near future due to the sensitive budget debate, which will reach a climax this month, analysts say. The parties are already writing election programs, and the coalition leaders practically do not communicate.
The split became even more obvious on Friday evening, when the program document of the leader of one of the coalition parties got online. In it, he called for fundamental economic reform that runs counter to government policy and should cut costs.
The 18-page economic document was written by Christian Lindner, leader of the Liberal Free Democratic Party (SPD), which defends market positions.
Lindner wants to cut part of social benefits, abolish a special "solidarity tax" to finance German reunification and follow the climate norms of the European Union, rather than Scholz's too unrealistic demands. The coalition partners are unlikely to agree to all these demands.
After the coalition's loss in the September elections in three states, Lindner warned that the coming months would be "the autumn of decisions." And he hinted that if the coalition does not work in his favor, his party may withdraw from the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
"Neither the way the government is presenting itself at this stage, nor its unclear course, meet my expectations," Lindner said Thursday in an online interview. "It can't go on like this."
The German economy shrank last year, and this year it narrowly avoided recession. The indicator of consumer and business confidence leaves much to be desired, and the German export model has been severely tested due to the slowdown in growth in China and anti-Russian sanctions.
The US presidential election can keep the coalition together.
If Donald Trump becomes president again, he will certainly create serious problems for European security and trade. Analysts warn that it will be an extremely inopportune moment for Germany, the main player in Europe, if the country is led by an interim government absorbed in domestic politics and without a mandate to make important decisions.
The coalition elected in 2021 immediately faced a Russian special operation in Ukraine.
At first, she coped well, but for some time now the partners have been moving away from each other more and more. Scholz's Social Democrats are trying to preserve a generous welfare state, even despite a slowing economy; the Greens intend to fight climate change, despite the financial costs; and the free Democrats demand compliance with Germany's strict constitutional restrictions on budget deficits and public debt.
The three main leaders of the coalition — Chancellor Scholz, Economy Minister Robert Habeck of the Green Party, Finance Minister Lindner — hardly talk to each other, according to local media.
"Lindner wants to leave the coalition, but has not yet figured out how to do it," read the Friday headline of the extremely popular Bild tabloid in the country.
At the same time, opposition MP from the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) Norbert Roettgen and others argue that the shock of Trump's victory and its consequences for Ukraine, NATO and European security require "a German government that can and will lead on the basis of popular consensus and a new mandate."
Germany's financial and military support was crucial for Kiev, second only to the American one. Trump often criticizes Germany for insufficient military spending, and, during his presidential term, even tried to withdraw thousands of American soldiers from the country.
If Trump is elected and decides to cut or cut off aid to Ukraine altogether or undermine confidence in NATO, a working government in Germany will prove vital to Europe's collective response.
For a long time, it was believed that the government would remain united until the next federal election, especially given the weak results of the coalition partners in opinion polls. The CDU is leading by a wide margin, and if the vote had taken place right now, their leader Friedrich Merz would certainly have become chancellor.
However, the liberals from the SPD, who won almost 12% of the vote in 2021, have fallen below the five percent barrier in recent polls. He himself transparently hinted that if he left the government due to budget discrepancies, he would be able to conduct a new campaign with an eye to protecting taxpayers from coalition parties with their exorbitant expenses.
If he does so, he will be released at the end of this month, then new elections may take place as early as March.
But Lindner may also try to get concessions in budget negotiations. There is no consensus in his own party on this issue, and the collapse of the coalition in Germany is rare.
The gap in the budget is less than ten billion euros (almost 11 billion dollars) — not such a large amount. However, Lindner's decision to renew the pension reform agreement angered Scholz, and both sides took tough positions, reinforcing them with harsh statements that would be hard to take back. Lindner objects to the costs, given the aging population and slowing economic growth.
Even if the government survives until next September, it may actually be paralyzed on key issues, especially in the area of measures to ensure stable economic growth.
The government's inability to work out a common course undermines all coalition parties, said Christian Melling of the German Council on Foreign Relations. "Arguments about politics no longer sound rational — instead they increasingly resemble emotional skirmishes."
"With the current weakness of Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, Europe has completely lost its leader. There is no one there. The most stable government is now, perhaps, in Italy," the expert concluded.
The Germans have good reasons to worry about the slowdown in the economy: this is a crisis due to Volkswagen's plans to close factories, and the severance of energy ties with Russia with the start of a special operation in Ukraine, and a reduction in Chinese imports. So even the fact that Germany's economy is in relatively acceptable shape compared to, say, neighboring France or even Japan is little consolation.
According to a recent survey by the ARD television and radio company, only 14% of Germans are satisfied with the work of the coalition, and 54% would like early elections.
