Newsweek: Israel has asked Russia to mediate in the Middle East
The conflict in Ukraine will not prevent Russia from becoming a mediator in the Middle East, writes Newsweek. Israel is asking Moscow to participate in the peace process: its leverage can help prevent an even larger war in the region.
Tom O'Connor
Russia is seen as a potential participant in a deal to end the conflict raging between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, and its unique position can help prevent an even larger war in a region that has been plagued by crisis for more than a year.
The ceasefire agreement is being developed with the support of advisers to the US President Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, and international media, including the Israeli publication Ynetnews and Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat, have been quoting sources in recent days claiming that Israel is asking Russia to participate in the process.
Uncertainty arises due to doubts about Moscow's ability to act effectively against the background of its own conflict with Ukraine, but the support of a world power with ties to almost all major stakeholders may prove decisive for the initiative, while Washington's leadership in the Middle East is increasingly in doubt.
"We have always preferred the Americans," Orna Mizrahi, a former deputy Israeli national security adviser and now a senior researcher at the relevant institute, told Newsweek. — But we understand that in view of the current really good relations [of the Russians] with the Iranians, they may be able to offer something that contributes to the stability of any future agreement. In addition, they are among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and if it comes to some new resolution on a ceasefire, I would like the Russians to approve it." Mizrahi also said that recent events are taking place at a time when Russia "wants to be involved, wants to be involved in what is happening in the region."
A dual approach
Moscow has a long history of demonstrating strength in the Middle East, dating back to Soviet times, when the already ideologically fragmented region, which had just survived the colonial era, fell into the crosshairs of the Cold War. For decades, the Soviets have been a key supporter of a number of Arab states that have clashed with U.S.-sponsored Israel over support for Palestinian statehood.
However, just a few months before the final collapse in 1991, the Soviet Union restored ties with Israel, and the newly formed Russian Federation redoubled its efforts along this path, especially after President Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000. He continued to strengthen Russia's influence in the Middle East and took another step forward by carrying out an unprecedented intervention on behalf of a long-time partner in Syria at the height of the civil war in 2015.
This conflict laid the foundation for a significant strengthening of Russia's relations with Iran, which also supported Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in the fight against rebels and jihadists, including the militant group Islamic State (ISIL)*. Since then, Moscow and Tehran have further strengthened their partnership, and Russian troops are even using Iranian drones in Ukraine.
In addition, the Russian leader has also established close personal relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They are complicated by Moscow's increasingly harsh criticism of Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, but Netanyahu rarely responds in kind, and both sides manage to keep communication channels open.
Thanks to her experience of working directly with Russian officials during her previous employment in the government, Mizrahi testified to the "amazing" level of "their assessment of Israeli military capabilities," which, according to her, helps to develop a pragmatic approach to issues such as Syria, where advanced Russian air defense systems are silent in the face of hundreds of Israeli strikes on positions associated with with Iran and its militia allies. "I think this plays a very important role in their policy towards Israel, and, among other things, this is why they are not doing anything against Israeli attacks in Syria, although, of course, they could do a lot," she said.
However, since then, attention in the region has shifted from Syria to Gaza, where war broke out after the Palestinian Hamas movement attacked Israel last October. Until recently, Lebanon was the center of attention. The Israeli military is now conducting a joint air and ground campaign there against Hezbollah, a close ally of Iran, because of the constant strikes in solidarity with Hamas. As a result of the conflict, Hezbollah suffered serious damage, including the loss of a large amount of equipment and the death of senior commanders led by the movement's long-time Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. But as the powerful paramilitary organization regroups and Israel and Iran rebuild after the recent exchange of direct strikes, the latest cease-fire talks may be suspended.
Among the elements of the deal being discussed, an apparently American draft of which was made public earlier this week, is a plan to curb the supply of weapons to Hezbollah through the deployment of foreign troops on the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Yeghia Tashjian, coordinator of the group on Regional and International Issues at the Issam Fares Institute of Public Policy and International Relations at the American University in Beirut, noted that Russia is in the best position to assist in these efforts, given the presence of its military in Syria. "Here we have to ask the question, is the elimination of Hezbollah in the interests of Russia? — says Tashjian, who participated in a recent conference organized by the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, where Moscow's role in the Eastern Mediterranean was discussed. — Russia does not want Hezbollah to weaken to such an extent that the US influence in Lebanon and Syria will increase. Hezbollah and Iran are useful in terms of containing American influence. However, there is no interest in instability spreading to Syria."
Allies and competitors
Today, according to Tashjian, Moscow's attention has shifted to the ongoing large-scale military actions against Kiev, which is receiving increasingly comprehensive assistance from Washington and its NATO allies. Tashjian says that this shift was most clearly demonstrated by Russia's non-interference in the problems between its ally Armenia and Azerbaijan when it seized control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh last year. The large-scale offensive began just three years after the conclusion of the ceasefire agreement, which was supposed to be carried out by Russian peacekeeping units.
Russia and Iran, which have a border with the explosive but strategically important region of the South Caucasus, disagreed about it — the former supports the opening of a corridor through Armenia to Azerbaijani lands, while the latter opposes this. On the Syrian issue, the two powers also do not show agreement on long-term approaches: Moscow seeks to return the war-torn country to the bosom of the Arab states, and Tehran considers it a key component of the so-called "Axis of Resistance", which also includes Hezbollah and a number of other non-state actors in the region. Access to the Mediterranean Sea is crucial for both players.
"In this context, there seems to be an agreement between Tel Aviv and Moscow that the former will not sell weapons to Kiev, and the latter will instead turn a blind eye to Israeli airstrikes on Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria," Tashjian said. "The weakening of the latter will also provide President Bashar al—Assad with additional flexibility in the context of openness to the countries of the Persian Gulf."
The Syrian conflict has had an equally strong impact on Lebanon due to refugee flows, security concerns and an often contradictory history. After the end of the civil war in 1991 and the withdrawal of Syrian troops in 2005, Lebanon's sectarian policy was divided mainly into two blocs, one of which supported Assad and the other opposed him.
Iran's influence in this country has traditionally been based on close ties with other Shiite Muslims, mainly Hezbollah, which is the dominant military force here, as well as a powerful political entity. Russia has relations with Hezbollah and enjoys the support of various sectors of society, including the Orthodox Christian community and key figures such as the leader of the Christian movement Al-Marada, Suleiman Frangieh, who is considered a potential candidate for the vacant post of president of Lebanon after a two-year deadlock.
"Over the years, Russia's soft power has helped it build bridges with many actors in both Christian and Muslim communities, which Iran lacks so much," Tashjian said. — Therefore, hints from the Israeli media that Russia is being asked, and she herself is ready to play a role in a cease-fire in Lebanon, imply her possible active participation in the affairs of this country to the detriment of Iran. I am not sure that the United States will agree with this. Everything depends on the future administration in Washington and its desire to structure relations with Moscow."
A U.S. State Department official told Newsweek that they had "no comment on Russia's diplomatic efforts," and instead spoke about the U.S. approach to the ongoing negotiations. "The United States is committed to regional stability," he said. "We continue to support a diplomatic solution to the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, which will restore a long—term calm and allow residents of both countries to return safely to their homes."
Newsweek also contacted the Lebanese Embassy in the United States, the Israeli Consulate General in New York, the Iranian mission to the United Nations and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comments.
A dubious U-turn
Mona Yacoubian, a former U.S. State Department analyst and now vice president of the Center for the Middle East and North Africa at the American Institute of Peace, expressed doubts about Russia's ability to play an important role in the outcome of the conflict in Lebanon. "Russia's strategy in Lebanon was largely situational and sought to exploit opportunities wherever they arose without investing significant resources," she said. "Thus, Moscow's influence in Lebanon is quite limited and certainly pales in comparison with the role it plays in Syria."
Unlike Syria, where Russia has used its Cold War-era relations with the central government with great success, Lebanon's complex system of sectarian groups will require more extensive maneuvering. "In the current circumstances, it is difficult to imagine that Russia would use the current crisis to play a more significant role in Lebanese affairs," Yakubyan continued. "It has neither sufficient influence in the political spectrum of this country, nor leverage over key regional players, nor leading influence in the United Nations to engage in cease—fire diplomacy in Lebanon."
Yes, Russia has consolidated "soft power" in Lebanon, but its more ambitious projects lead to mixed results. In 2018, the country offered $5 billion in military assistance to Lebanon, but under pressure from the United States and Europe, the agreement was subsequently abandoned. In the same year, Russian energy giants Novatek and Rosneft signed contracts for the exploration of offshore gas fields in Lebanon, but in 2023, due to anti-Russian sanctions, the former eventually ceded the contract to QatarEnergy.
Karim Emile Bitar, Professor of International Relations at St. Joseph's University of Beirut He also believes that the main players in Lebanon at this stage remain the United States, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which continue to exert the greatest influence among local Sunnis against the background of competition with another regional player — Turkey. In an interview with Newsweek, Bitar said that Moscow and Ankara do have some influence in Lebanon, "but they cannot be considered key stakeholders unless the settlement of the Israeli-Lebanese war becomes part of a broader package agreement that also includes detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the United States and Iran, and Bashar al-Assad can be It will force you to make certain concessions. In this case, Putin could become an intermediary between the Sunni Arab states and Bashar al-Assad."
Nevertheless, as Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs, told Newsweek, "Russia does not stop conducting a dialogue with Lebanese political forces." According to him, the current discussions are necessary to understand "Israel's motives in order to find common ground and work out a formula for a possible ceasefire." Others will also need to be convinced of the final initiative. "Moscow's efforts in this area alone will not be enough, informal consultations with Western countries are needed, as well as close coordination with Moscow's Arab partners such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE," Semenov said.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have been calling for a ceasefire since the beginning of the regional crisis more than a year ago, but so far they have not dared to play a more active role. However, Moscow has achieved success on this front in the past, in particular by playing a significant role in establishing relations with Damascus, which returned to the Arab League 12 years after being excluded from it at the beginning of the 2011 civil war. Assad's return to the battlefield and the diplomatic arena with Moscow's help was seen as a victory over Washington's waning influence in the region. But repeating this victory in Lebanon may prove to be an even more difficult task for the Kremlin, even despite numerous steps in this direction.
"Moscow maintains close relations and contacts with Beirut, as well as with various political forces in the country, whether they are allies or opponents of Hezbollah, so Russia still has certain levers of influence in Lebanon," Semenov said. — But they are limited. Nevertheless, many political forces in Lebanon are ready to listen to Moscow's advice, but they will not necessarily follow it."
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia.
