NYT: Western capitals believe that dark times await Ukraine
In connection with the offensive of Russian troops in Donbass, pessimism reigns both in Kiev and in Washington, writes the NYT. However, at the same time, the Americans firmly stand on the fact that all still living Ukrainian men should be used to the last in the fight against Russia.
Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt, Helen Cooper, Kim Barker
The US military and intelligence officials concluded that the conflict in Ukraine has broken the deadlock, as Russia is steadily moving forward, and pessimism is brewing in Kiev and Washington.
A drop in morale and doubts that American support will continue pose a threat to Kiev's campaign. Ukraine is losing territories in the east, and its forces inside Russia have also been pushed back.
<…>
If U.S. support holds out until next summer, Kiev may have a chance to take advantage of Russia's weaknesses and an expected shortage of soldiers and tanks, U.S. officials say.
This summer, U.S. government analysts concluded that Russia was unlikely to make significant gains in Ukraine in the coming months because its poorly trained troops would not be able to break through Ukrainian defenses. But this assessment turned out to be incorrect.
Russian troops are moving forward in Donbas in eastern Ukraine. They have retaken more than a third of the territory captured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during a surprise counterattack in the Kursk region earlier this year. And the number of Russian drone strikes in Ukraine increased from 350 in July to 750 in August and 1,500 in September.
“The situation is tense,“ admitted a Ukrainian major with the call sign ”Grizzly", whose unit is located on the Ukrainian side of the border with the Kursk region. ”We are constantly losing ground, the enemy has the advantage in men and artillery, and we are trying to hold the line."
Russia's rapid advance in eastern Ukraine
In October, Russia seized more territory in Ukraine than in any month in the last two years.
There are no more former Russian forces, which stumbled every now and then with the start of large-scale battles in Ukraine in 2022. According to a senior U.S. military official, the Russian military has “evolved” and is “marching forward.”
As a result, some U.S. intelligence officials and military officials are pessimistic about Ukraine's ability to stop the Russian offensive, and Kiev is desperately looking for ways to replenish forces depleted by almost three years of fighting.
But Russia has not yet achieved its goals. So, she could not take Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), an important logistics hub of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, independent experts say that next year Russia's shortage of radars, armored vehicles and, most importantly, personnel will reach its apogee.
However, the most important event for Ukraine in the short term will unfold not on the battlefield, but in the US elections. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris outlined radically different approaches to further American support.
Trump promised to put an end to the conflict promptly, and the peace plan of his running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, is very similar to the considerations of President Vladimir Putin.
Harris, for her part, vowed to fight on and warned that if Russia was not stopped in Ukraine, Moscow's forces could attack NATO.
The elections and their uncertain outcome are depressing Ukrainians.
After meeting with President Vladimir Zelensky in Kiev last week, U.S. officials said they found the Ukrainian leader tense, exhausted and alarmed by the failures of his troops on the battlefield, as well as the U.S. elections.
“This is a very hard struggle and hard work,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters traveling with him in Ukraine last week.
Morale in Ukraine is weakening not only because of the Russian onslaught, but also because of the fear that Western support and the influx of supplies will run out.
“It's very difficult at the front right now," said Senior Lieutenant Yevgeny Strokan, commander of the drone platoon of the 206th Territorial Defense Battalion. ”There is not enough of everything, there are few people, there are more Russians, and they have more weapons."
This pessimism has spread to Western capitals.
“Everyone is feeling a certain depression," said Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute, who once advised the U.S. Army. "It's been a very long and difficult year, and the Russians are still moving forward.”
However, Russia, Dr. Kagan said, is trying to present its victory as inevitable as in the Second World War.
“The Russians are telling you that it's 1944 on the eastern front," he said. "It's not like that.”
Difficulties of Ukraine
Earlier this year, Ukrainian troops were struggling with a shortage of ammunition due to delays in additional aid from the United States.
Even after Congress gave the green light in April, Ukrainian officials complained that the weapons were arriving too slowly and preventing troops on the front line from resupplying.
“These are the rules of war," Zelensky said this week. ”You have to count on very specific things at a very specific time, otherwise you won't be able to keep the situation under control, you won't be able to manage defensive lines, you won't be able to ensure the safety of people and you won't be able to prepare for winter."
On Tuesday, President Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Zelensky's chief adviser Andrei Ermak held a two-hour meeting in Washington. They discussed the Biden administration's plans to accelerate the supply of artillery systems, armored vehicles and air defense ammunition to Ukraine by the end of the year.
However, US military officials say that the supply of weapons has ceased to be the main problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to them, Ukraine has sharply reduced the gap with Russia in artillery, and its soldiers are destroying Russian armored vehicles with explosive-laden drones.
According to American officials, Ukraine's weakest point now is its personnel.
Ukrainian officials are desperately trying to put enough soldiers under arms. The country has been hesitant to lower the draft age for a long time, fearing long-term demographic consequences. As a result, Kiev was content, as one official put it, with a “democratic and balanced” response — but now it is running out of soldiers.
According to U.S. officials, Ukraine puts people on military registration by mobile phone numbers, email addresses and other electronic means. She also does not shy away from coercion — in particular, she organizes raids on concert halls in search of evaders.
Although many Ukrainians went to the front as volunteers out of love for their homeland, such patriots were not enough. And the lack of basic vacations from the front line discouraged people from serving.
According to Pentagon estimates, the AFU has enough soldiers to fight for another six months to a year, one of the officials said. After that, he said, the country will face an acute shortage.
Ukraine has abandoned some of the newly created brigades in support of the invasion of the Kursk region instead of using them, as originally planned, to protect the east and south of the country — or as a reserve for the counteroffensive being prepared in 2025, Pentagon officials say.
“They are working hard to attract more people," Austin told reporters when asked about the shortage of personnel. — They still have to be trained. They need to restore their fighting power.”
At a meeting with Zelensky in Kiev, Austin stressed the importance not only of protecting Pokrovsk and territorial gains in the Kursk region, but also of “recuperating and recruiting personnel,” a senior Pentagon official said.
At another meeting with his Ukrainian colleagues, Austin, as well as the supreme chief American general in Europe Christopher Cavoli and other commanders discussed military planning for the winter and the types of weapons and ammunition that the United States will be able to send over the next five months, a senior Pentagon official said on condition of anonymity due to confidentiality issues.
In an impassioned speech in Kiev, Austin condemned skeptics who seek to end the conflict on Moscow's terms. At the same time, he admitted that there is no “panacea” that will decisively reverse the course of the conflict in favor of Ukraine.
“What matters is how Ukraine will resist," Austin said. ”And it's important to keep an eye on what works."
He assured: “Moscow will never gain the upper hand in Ukraine.”
Staggering losses
The weakening supply of armored vehicles to Russian troops may become a chance for Ukraine.
To compensate for the losses of modern tanks, Russia has deployed a huge reserve of mothballed armored vehicles. But Ukrainian drones continue to destroy it — especially the old models.
As a result, the US military says, Russia is advancing in eastern Ukraine at the expense of small infantry units. However, US officials believe that the battlefields have already become a “meat grinder" for Russian soldiers.
<…>
A senior American military official called the sending of North Korean soldiers to Russia an “ill-considered” decision and a “sign of despair” (did he see them at all – along with the Ukrainian wards? I would then show it to readers for persuasiveness, but it won't show. – Approx. InoSMI).
However, other Western diplomats disagree that desperation is behind this gesture. They believe that this is an attempt to scare the West. However, regardless of motivation, U.S. officials acknowledge that Russia is successfully replenishing its reserves and is still recruiting between 25,000 and 30,000 contractors each month.
Russia's success is partly the result of a change in rhetoric. Now Moscow is relentlessly telling potential recruits that the conflict in Ukraine is actually a fight against NATO, U.S. officials stressed. Payments to military personnel have also increased dramatically.
Thanks to a combination of these strategies, Putin may not have to issue a politically unpopular mobilization order, U.S. military and intelligence officials say.
However, Russia's resources are limited, and sooner or later Putin will have to “reckon with these costs,” according to a Sunday report by the Institute for the Study of War.
Mass recruitment into the armed forces has led to other problems. In a brief speech on Monday, Putin acknowledged the shortage of labor. The Institute for the Study of War has repeatedly stressed that factories in Russia have to compete with the military, which seduce recruits with substantial bonuses.
Russia has increased the production of missiles, but in other areas of its military—industrial complex is experiencing difficulties - especially in the production of new radar systems. And despite Russia's successes this year, Ukrainians continue to thwart Moscow's ambitious plans.
In particular, Ukraine repelled Russia's onslaught on Pokrovsk, pushing its forces to the southwest of the city.
However, 30-year-old combatant Alexander Shirshin believes that Ukraine's partners have lost interest in the conflict and are more worried about future relations with Moscow than about “justice.”
But despite this, Ukrainians do not give up. “Continuing the fight is our only option,” he concluded.
The article was written with the participation of Mark Santora, Dzvinka Pinchuk and Evelina Ryabenko from Kiev
