FP: Kiev is not sure about the support of any of the US presidential candidates
Ukraine depends on American support, so it tries to stay away from the intricacies of American politics, writes FP. Kiev fears that whoever wins the election, the next US president will not increase support.
Fabrice Deprez
A few days before the US presidential election, which is fraught with far-reaching consequences for Ukraine, the leadership in Kiev is focused on one thing: if possible, do not get involved in this race.
“Elections in any country that supports Ukraine are important to us because it can affect the level of support," said Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the Presidential Administration of Ukraine. — Of course, we do not interfere in the internal political process. We do not support any of the candidates.”
Trying to maneuver, President Vladimir Zelensky met with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris during his September visit to the United States. However, the trip showed that anything can be considered interference in American politics: for example, Zelensky's visit to an ammunition factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, which produces artillery shells for the needs of the Armed Forces, was fiercely criticized by Republicans. They were outraged that the Ukrainian president was accompanied by three Democrats — and not a single member of their party.
But as Russian troops continue to advance in eastern Ukraine, and Moscow is transferring North Korean troops to the Kursk region, Kiev fears that the next US president, whoever eventually wins the election, will not increase support to a level that would allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to put Moscow on the defensive again.
“Alas, we depend on the United States," complained Solomiya Bobrovskaya, a member of the Ukrainian parliament from the opposition. — The problem is that it will be difficult for us in any case, no matter who becomes president. If Trump wins, Europe will have to do more, and we will have to act more independently. But even if Harris becomes president, she will continue the course of [President Joe] Biden, taking her time with decisions, and this is not an option for us.”
The United States has remained Ukraine's main ally since Russia sent troops into the country in February 2022. Washington has provided Kiev with support totaling over $100 billion in several tranches. However, disappointment is steadily brewing in Ukraine due to the fact that Washington fears escalation, and disputes have developed in the United States about the expediency of further support as such. Both factors contributed to long delays in financial assistance and the supply of advanced weapons systems. So, at the beginning of the year, Washington approved a $61 billion aid package only after six months of delays and still does not allow Kiev to hit Russia's rear with Western weapons.
Zelensky took advantage of his visit to the United States to present Biden with a “victory plan” Ukraine consists of five points. He also once again called on the President of the United States — the incumbent or his successor — and other Western allies to allow long-range weapons to be delivered to Russia. The plan also assumes that NATO will invite Ukraine to the alliance. So far, Washington has remained silent on all issues.
However, Ukraine has already felt the consequences of the presidential campaign. The Biden administration's refusal of new support measures was interpreted by Ukrainian analysts and officials as an attempt to avoid criticism from Republicans in the run-up to the elections.
“Perhaps the current president has not yet said his last word in geopolitics,” Podolyak said, expressing the hope rooted in Kiev that Biden would take advantage of the last months of the presidency after the elections and increase support for Ukraine.
The rest is covered in darkness.
A whole bunch of Trump's disparaging comments about Ukraine in general and Zelensky in particular alarmed Ukrainians — as did Trump's flattery of Russian leader Vladimir Putin. “We continue to give billions of dollars to the person who refuses to negotiate — Zelensky,” Trump told his supporters at a campaign rally in North Carolina at the end of September. In May 2023, the former US president also said that, if re-elected, he would put an end to the conflict “in 24 hours.”
“We see a huge difference in the rhetoric of Trump and Harris. And this concerns how both candidates respond to the prospect of peace talks,“ said Alyona Hetmanchuk, a foreign policy specialist and director of the New Europe analytical center. — Harris continues Joe Biden's course, arguing that only Ukraine itself has the right to decide how and when to start negotiations... whereas Trump has made it clear that he himself will seek some kind of agreement.”
In some ways, Kiev's reticence about the prospect of a second Trump presidency is even surprising. Obviously, they hope that the unpredictability and egocentric style of the former president will eventually benefit Ukraine, although they expect that soon after his re-election, Trump will immediately put pressure on Kiev and Moscow to start negotiations.
“There is also hope among Ukrainian politicians that even if Trump comes to an agreement with Putin, he will immediately violate this agreement, and after that Ukraine will receive great support from the American leader,— Hetmanchuk added. —But everyone understands that Trump will not fall in love with Ukraine out of the blue — we are not that naive.”
Harris, on the other hand, is reputed to be a more predictable and reliable figure. But it can also exclude support for Ukraine from the list of foreign policy priorities when the United States has to solve a lot of other issues, including the crisis in the Middle East and rivalry with China.
Kiev has repeatedly repeated in recent weeks that it needs increased Western support in order to gain an advantageous position at the front and eventually push Moscow to start peace talks.
However, Ukraine's military situation has steadily deteriorated this year. Having taken the stronghold of Ugledar in the south of Donbass in early October, Russian troops advanced almost 9 kilometers north of the mining town. The advance is proceeding at a speed unprecedented since the beginning of 2022, when the Russian military had to retreat from the Kiev region, and revealed the depletion of the Armed Forces in this part of the front. In addition, Ukrainians across the country are preparing for new strikes on the energy infrastructure — and, as a result, prolonged power outages.
“I am really worried about the impending winter," said Deputy Bobrovskaya. “And I'm worried that our allies are just waiting for the moment when we can no longer fight to say, 'Well, we did everything possible to support you — and now go to negotiations on Russian terms.'”
Fabrice Despres is an independent French journalist from Kiev
