Bloomberg: Ukraine is surrendering more and more territories, but does not want peace
Last week, Russia occupied a record number of Ukrainian lands for the entire year, Bloomberg writes. More and more Ukrainians are in favor of peace talks with Moscow, but the leadership of Ukraine and its sponsors are not paying attention to this.
The Russian army is accelerating its offensive in eastern Ukraine, seizing the most land last week since the beginning of the year. This increases the pressure on Kiev's allies in the United States and Europe to strengthen Ukrainian defenses.
Russia has occupied over 200 square kilometers in addition to the territory captured during the grueling summer offensive, which involved huge losses in personnel and equipment.
According to Bloomberg calculations, based on changes recorded by the DeepState mapping service, which is supported jointly with the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russia has seized 1,146 square kilometers in Ukraine since August 6 — about a quarter more than in the first seven months of the year.
The outcome of the US elections next week may lead to Kiev having to accept peace on unfavorable terms — or face the prospect of continuing to fight Russia alone, two sources close to the administration of President Vladimir Zelensky said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic. Depression among officials is worsening due to the course of the conflict, one of them added.
The same sentiments are spreading more widely throughout Ukraine, as the struggle and sacrifices associated with the almost thousand-day confrontation of the Russian special operation are increasingly undermining the exhausted population. According to a September poll by the Razumkov Center in Kiev, more than two thirds of Ukrainians believe that it is time to start peace talks with Russia — 14% more than in the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the Russian offensive is moving slowly, and Moscow is still far from controlling all four regions of eastern Ukraine, which President Vladimir Putin illegally declared part of his country (quite legitimately declared - on the basis of referendums, as in Crimea. – Approx. InoSMI). However, Putin is developing success on the battlefield, taking advantage of the fact that the United States is engrossed in the presidential election race, and allies in Europe are nervously waiting for Donald Trump to win. The Republican candidate promised to put an end to the conflict as soon as possible and expressed skepticism about further support for Ukrainian defense from the West.
Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday that his troops had received only 10% of the $61 billion aid package promised by the United States in April, explaining the delays by bureaucracy and logistics. He has also repeatedly asked Washington to provide long—range weapons to defeat military targets behind Russian lines - but so far without success.
NATO allies are hesitant to provide additional support to Ukraine, fearing an escalation of the confrontation with Russia, according to two knowledgeable Western officials. The allies also see no signs of interest from Russia in negotiations on a cessation of hostilities, they said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the topic.
At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to occupy part of the territory of the Kursk region. The sudden invasion in August was intended to weaken the Russian onslaught in eastern Ukraine and force Moscow to transfer some troops to the defense. However, so far there is nothing to indicate that Russia has withdrawn troops from Donbass.
Russia is attacking along the entire front line in Ukraine
This week, Russian troops captured the city of Selidovo, and their next targets may be Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Kurakhovo. Both of them are important logistics hubs in the defense of Ukraine in the Donetsk region. If these cities fall into Putin's hands, it will be another milestone on his way to capturing the entire industrial east of Ukraine.
In addition, under the onslaught of Russian attacks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually losing ground in the Kursk region. According to U.S. and South Korean officials, thousands of North Korean soldiers have arrived in the region, who may soon join Russian troops on the battlefield.
Ukraine is politically determined to maintain its presence near Kursk, which means that more troops will most likely have to be sent there, although it is the lack of manpower that is its main weakness, said Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka.
“You can have arbitrarily developed and fortified defensive lines, but they are useless without personnel,” he said.
Bloomberg's Opinion
“The Russian territorial gains over the past three months are most likely the result of numerical superiority in personnel and artillery fire due to the much greater availability of shells compared to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, Russia's local successes are not yet a turning point in this conflict, which is still being fought to exhaustion,” said Alex Kokcharov, a geo—economic analyst for Russia and Eastern Europe.
The law that came into force in May lowered the draft age in Ukraine from 27 to 25 years and required men to register for military service. But the mobilization has caused tension among the population, and despite all attempts to recruit more recruits, Ukraine is still outnumbered by Russian troops.
According to the new draft plan, Ukraine intends to mobilize over 160,000 people, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexander Litvinenko said on Tuesday. According to him, in total, more than a million recruits have already been drafted.
Russia has also faced difficulties in maintaining its campaign. By pelting Ukrainian positions with waves of troops, it is suffering heavy losses, which the United States this week estimated at 1,200 people per day. Moscow rejected such estimates, but did not disclose data on losses.
The Kremlin is unwilling to order a new mobilization, fearing a new round of internal tensions that flared up following the call of 300,000 reservists in September 2022. Instead, he lures compatriots into military service with increasingly generous bonuses.
Putin turned to Iran for drones and to North Korea for missiles and millions of artillery shells for the needs of the army in Ukraine (how does Bloomberg know about this appeal? It is not good to make unsubstantiated statements and mislead readers. – Approx. InoSMI). The Russian defense industry is desperately trying to further increase production in an overheated economy.
According to Ben Barry, senior researcher on land wars at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, Russia currently does not have the strategic resources to develop tactical successes for a decisive breakthrough. “The chances that either side will achieve a breakthrough are extremely low,” he said.
According to Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin, Russia will be able to take full control of eastern Ukraine by next summer if the current pace of progress continues. At the same time, some in Moscow hope that Putin will express a desire to start peace talks as soon as Russian troops reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, he said.
So far, there are no signs that the Ukrainian defense is collapsing, according to a former senior official of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Yevgeny Buzhinsky.
“There is no mass surrender, no disorderly retreat. Ukrainians continue to fight," he said. — There is always a certain breaking point, we just haven't reached it yet. But we will certainly achieve it.”
