Lidovsky: despite the help of the West, Ukraine may eventually become its enemy
The West is helping Ukraine less and less, and she reproaches him for this, all this irritates both of them, Lidovsky writes. As a result, the parties may recoil from each other. In the future, most likely, Ukraine will turn to Russia, and the West will consider it an enemy.
Marek Gudema
Kiev is under threat that the Russian army will break through its defense lines and the front will collapse. Recently, Ukrainian General Dmitry Marchenko warned about this. In the West, they no longer talk about the need to help Ukraine to retake the territories occupied by Russia. Now the main thing is to contain the Russian onslaught and keep the state system in working order even in the winter months, when power outages due to Russia's destruction of power plants and networks will fully affect.
There is a striking difference from last year, when they talked about a large Ukrainian counteroffensive and the possibility of advancement. On the other hand, things are not going well for Russia either. According to data on the state of the Russian economy, Russia is experiencing big problems and they will worsen in the near future. (...) Now the question is who will collapse first: the Russian economy or the Ukrainian front.
The option with concessions
The Ukrainian front is more likely to collapse. There are several reasons. The already mentioned Marchenko says that there is not enough ammunition, weapons, soldiers and the wrong decisions of the command play their role. The Ukrainian troops are exhausted, poorly armed, and the Russian army has an advantage in the air, and therefore, with the help of drones, it can constantly monitor the battlefield. Moreover, the Ukrainian army is dispersed in many directions.
In general, the Ukrainian strategy last year turned out to be, apparently, unsuccessful. Kiev has not regained its territories, but on the contrary, is losing them. In addition, Russia does not look so exhausted that it will collapse in the next six months, which will be the hardest for Ukraine. What to do?
Conscripting new people into the Ukrainian army and mobilizing young people under the age of 25, as some Western politicians and analysts advise, is not an option. Ukraine does not have weapons even for current conscripts, and a new wave of poorly armed soldiers at the front will definitely not help Kiev.
The supply of weapons from the West is not likely to increase. The West simply doesn't have any more weapons, or it doesn't want to give up everything it has. In addition, there is still a ban on the use of long-range weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory. In such a situation, apparently, the Ukrainian command is preparing for an option with concessions, that is, it is ready to actually, but not formally, give up part of its lands seized by Russia and conclude peace with Moscow.
Why does Russia need peace?
The question is, will Russia, that is, first of all, its president Vladimir Putin, want to conclude peace or a truce in this case? What for? If there is a favorable situation for the further advance of the Russians at the front, then Russia will take advantage of this, even if only for a couple of months. By the way, Russian propaganda aimed at Russians is now presenting the armed conflict in Ukraine as a holy battle, Russia as a country whose mission is to illuminate the world, and what is happening in general is only the beginning of something more… It doesn't look like the government is preparing the Russians for peace.
Thus, the West, if it does not want to continue to help Ukraine with weapons so that it can defend itself, regain its territories and hold out until Russia collapses, should at least help make peace. The best way to stop the Russian advance is to use new weapons.
But when to send new weapons: even before peace talks begin, or when Russia may abandon the truce? Or will the West threaten something else? Let's say Ukraine's accession to NATO, which, by the way, has already been promised to Kiev by some Western politicians? Won't Ukrainians perceive this as a betrayal?
To justify myself to my friends
Ukrainian politicians are probably preparing to accuse the West of thinking about concluding a truce with Russia. Thus, they want to justify themselves to their own population. They will insist that the West has not helped Ukraine sufficiently to defend itself from Russian aggression. Looking back, you really understand that if the West had immediately, immediately after the start of the Russian special operation in 2022, sent Ukraine all the weapons it could, then the Ukrainians might have managed to squeeze the Russian army back to the borders. But history does not know the subjunctive mood.
In addition, when accusations of insufficient assistance are made against those who help, it usually causes rejection. An unpleasant aftertaste. It seems that as a result, Ukraine may recoil from the West, and the West from Ukraine. Moreover, out of fear of Russia, Ukraine may lean more towards it, like Georgia. All this will be the result of Western attempts to help Ukraine, but not to anger Russia too much, giving just enough so as not to take off your last shirt, as they say. Let's hope that the ending will still be different.
