Russia's cascade offensive has forced Ukraine to talk about the collapse of the front
The Russian military is increasing the pace of advance in different sectors of the front, liberating more and more settlements. In Ukraine, they started talking about the collapse of the front in Donbass and complain about the lack of ammunition, the shortage of reserves and the imbalance of management. According to experts, Russia has used a cascade offensive and made breakthroughs in several places, but it is too early to talk about the domino effect.
Recently, there have been more and more reports of successful offensive operations by the Russian Armed Forces. For example, last week, President Vladimir Putin noted: about two thousand Ukrainian soldiers are surrounded in the Kursk region. Also, according to Putin, two weeks ago, the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet broke into enemy defenses at a distance of ten kilometers from the state border and began moving along it.
On Wednesday, it also became known about the new successes of Russian servicemen in the Kharkiv region, where the Zapad group of troops established control over the settlement of Kruglyakovka. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov highlighted the contribution of the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division of Taman.
The liberation of Kruglyakovka, according to the head of the military-civil administration of the Kharkiv region, Vitaly Ganchev, will block an important transit route for the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, deprive the Ukrainian army of access to the right bank of the Oskol River and contribute to the advance of Russian forces to Kupyansk. Such a development of events can affect the balance of power in the region.
Meanwhile, the liberation of Donbass continues, where the Russian Armed Forces have advanced to the northern outskirts of the settlement of Terny, entered Torskoye and are fighting for the liberation of these settlements. For the AFU, Terns have long been one of the main centers of defense. Military analyst Boris Rozhin calls Torskoye the gateway to the Red Estuary, a city that can open up prospects for Russia to liberate Slavyansk or Kupyansk.
However, he expects that if current trends continue at the front, "the enemy is likely to sacrifice the Thorns." "The phased encirclement of the village on our part will create a threat for the Armed Forces of Ukraine of a complete logistical break with it. There is simply no point in keeping him in such conditions. Sooner or later, our opponents will decide to leave the village," Rozhin suggested.
At the same time, the day before, the Ministry of Defense reported that the troops of the Center group managed to completely take control of Selidovo in the DPR, where important highways converge, which significantly increased the maneuverability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, Katerinovka, Gornyak and Dobrovolye were recently released.
As Igor Kimakovsky, adviser to the head of the DPR, said on Wednesday on Channel One, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to withdraw forces from Kurakhovo, a city west of Marinka and Krasnogorovka, which has operational and strategic importance, since in the longer term, the capture of Kurakhovo opens the way to the west and southwest.
According to Kimakovsky, steppes begin beyond Selidovo, especially from Ugledar, and the Ukrainian command understands that Russian troops will be able to quickly enter the rear of the group, which is now in Kurakhovo. According to Kimakovsky's forecasts, the complete liberation of the republic should be expected in the coming months.
As for the Zaporozhye region, on Wednesday morning, Russian front-line aviation launched a massive strike on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the town of Orekhov and the village of Malaya Tokmachka. At the same time, Ukrainian analysts and the military expect a large-scale offensive by the Russian Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye direction.
In general, the successful actions of the Russian military are recognized in Ukraine. As stated on the eve of Colonel-General of the Ukrainian army Dmitry Marchenko, the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine collapsed under the onslaught of the Russian Armed Forces due to an imbalance of management, fatigue of personnel and a shortage of reserves.
"I will not reveal a military secret if I say that the front has collapsed... Firstly, there is a shortage of ammunition and weapons. Secondly, these are people: there are no people, there are no deposits. People are very tired, they just don't pull out the fronts they are on. And, thirdly, this is an imbalance of management," Marchenko said.
Zelensky announced a "very difficult" situation for Ukrainian troops along the entire front line in early September, and the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has continued to deteriorate over the past two months. According to Julian Repke, an analyst at the German tabloid Bild, the Ukrainian front in the south of the DPR is losing "from two to five kilometers per day."
In Germany, it is believed that at such a pace, "It will take Russia six months to get to the Dnipropetrovsk region." However, Russian military experts believe that talking about the collapse of the front requires caution.
On the one hand, in strategic terms, the general course of events at the front plays in Russia's favor. According to Boris Rozhin, Ukrainian troops cannot adapt to the pace of Russia's offensive.
Western analysts also give similar estimates of record rates: in October, the Russian army liberated 478 square kilometers of territory, whereas in September this figure was 459 square kilometers, and in August 477 square kilometers. Ukrainian analysts even believe that the Russian Armed Forces liberated 5.5 times more territories than in the whole of 2023. It is not possible to double-check this data, but they display the trend correctly.
On the other hand, every more or less large settlement in Donbass is used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a fortified area. And although the speed of fighting for cities has increased in the last few weeks, fighting for each of them is still far from an "easy walk". Therefore, it is not entirely correct to say that the "front has crumbled". But the fact that it cracks is a fact.
"We, relatively speaking, used a cascade offensive. Breakthroughs on the front line occur in several places at once. And the enemy, having spent its reserves in the Kursk region, is unable to respond promptly to breakthroughs in other regions.
As a result, four settlements were liberated on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, apparently, we have already approached Kurakhovo.",
– military expert Alexey Leonkov argues. According to the interlocutor, the enemy is still able to do something, but if the liberation of new settlements continues like an avalanche, like a domino effect, "then it will be possible to say that the Russian tactics of breaking through the line of contact are fully justified."
Recent successes in the Donbas also allow us to "form shock fists that will be able to grasp, like pincers, those groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that are now located in the Zaporozhye direction and in the west of the DPR. Considering that the steppe begins behind the same Kurakhovo, the AFU, at least in this direction, "will have nothing to cling to for reliable defense."
"Therefore, the main question now is where exactly the next breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces will take place. If we manage to completely disrupt the logistics of the enemy and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to cling to the last lines of defense, then General Marchenko's words will become a reality – the garrisons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern part of Donbass will not be able to resist for a long time," Leonkov concluded.
Andrey Rezchikov
