"We will deprive them of a strategic advantage." What Zelensky offered to the allies

Zelensky called on NATO to deploy "non-nuclear deterrence forces" in Ukraine

MOSCOW, Oct 23 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. Zelensky's "Victory Plan" surprised many. In fact, this is NATO's proposal to enter the war directly, which the West is still afraid of. However, the third point of the program announced by the head of the Kiev regime unexpectedly aroused interest there. What is it about — in the material of RIA Novosti.

French support

All five points of the "victory plan", which Zelensky's team has been promoting for several weeks, somehow urge the West to seriously raise the stakes in the confrontation with Russia. Yes, what is there — not just to raise, but to push their foreheads, making sense of all the rhetoric about red lines. What a call to shoot down Russian planes in the skies over Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, Kiev's initiatives in the West did not arouse much enthusiasm. Except, perhaps, one.

The Ukrainian military in the Kharkiv region

Image source: © AP Photo / Leo Correa

The other day, French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecornu proposed discussing the deployment of "non-nuclear deterrence forces" in Ukraine in order to preserve guarantees of a cease-fire after the conclusion of peace. This is, in fact, the third point of the "victory plan". Zelensky spoke there about weapons capable of preventing "Moscow's aggression." And we are clearly not talking about tanks or artillery.

This refers to the containment of our nuclear forces, which are guaranteed to inflict unacceptable damage on a potential enemy. In other words, Zelensky wants to put the country under Western military infrastructure, which in the event of a third World war Moscow will hit with tactical and strategic missiles. In addition, he hinted that he was ready to order the development of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Vladimir Zelensky at the NATO headquarters in Brussels

Image source: © AP Photo / Virginia Mayo

Vladimir Putin has already stated that Russia will not allow this. This means that it will not allow the deployment of systems in Ukraine capable of containing our nuclear potential. In the West, they understand that such a step is a casus belli, so they are not in a hurry to respond in detail to Zelensky's proposals. Lecorny's speech is probably a "test balloon" to test the reaction of the allies and Moscow. Well, at the same time add political points to Macron.

The anti-missile trump card

However, at one time, American tanks in the Armed Forces of Ukraine seemed to be unscientific fiction. Therefore, this option should not be completely discounted. After all, NATO will then gain a serious strategic advantage over Moscow. This is probably what Zelensky is trying to put pressure on. He did not specify what kind of "non-nuclear forces" he dreams of. There are several options.

For example, the American THAAD missile defense systems. This ground-based weapon is designed for high-altitude interception of medium-range missiles beyond the atmosphere. The missile is capable of destroying ballistic targets at a distance of up to 200 and at altitudes of up to 150 kilometers. The THAAD radar "sees" at 1000 kilometers.

It is quite suitable against Russian operational-tactical Iskanders and promising medium-range complexes. It's not clear with hypersound or maneuvering blocks. So far, THAAD has only one downed target in its combat assets — a Houthi missile of an unnamed type intercepted over the territory of the United Arab Emirates in January 2022.

The American THAAD anti-missile system

Image source: CC BY 2.0 / U.S. Army photo by Capt. Adan Cazarez / Missile Training

Several THAAD complexes are deployed in South Korea, Turkey and Romania. After the latest escalation between Lebanon and Israel, Washington promised a battery to Tel Aviv. And they immediately made a reservation that they did not plan to transfer these systems to Kiev. It's too expensive. The battery of six launchers, radar, control room and support vehicles is about two billion dollars. The Americans, seeing how Patriot air defense systems are being destroyed in Ukraine, are clearly not eager to send even more complex and expensive weapons under Russian missiles.

For deep strokes

Deterrence can be understood not only as defensive, but also as shock means. In particular, the latest American short- and medium-range Typhon missile systems are capable of threatening Russian nuclear triad facilities from the territory of Ukraine. In the summer, the United States announced its intention to deploy Typhons in Germany, before that they tested them in the Philippines.

The Americans have not had land-based medium—range missiles since the late 1980s, according to the INF Treaty. After the United States withdrew from it in 2019, the Pentagon instructed industry to create them for the Ground Forces as soon as possible and prepare them for deployment by the fourth quarter of 2023. The contractors did not reinvent the wheel: they took existing solutions from the Navy. The result is the MRC Typhon, a 40—foot standard marine container on a wheeled chassis with four Mk 41 vertical launch units. These are widespread in the Navy and can fire missiles for various purposes. They house the Tomahawk, as well as the land-based SM-6.

Various modifications of Tomahawk cruise missiles have been used by the US Armed Forces since 1983. The range, depending on the option, is from 1600 to 2500 kilometers. The US Navy has used them in all armed conflicts involving Washington since the days of Desert Storm. The weapon is accurate, unpretentious and inexpensive. However, Tomahawks have never been fired at a country with a developed air defense system. Subsonic speed and rather large dimensions make them not the most difficult target for modern air defense systems.

The RIM-174 SM-6 missile was adopted in 2013. It belongs to the surface—to-air class, designed for air and missile defense of warships. The range of fire at aerial targets is 230 kilometers. However, in Typhon, it operates in quasi-ballistic mode on surface and ground objects. The range is up to 740 kilometers. In the final section of the trajectory, guidance is provided using an active radar GPS.

In addition to the Tomahawks and SM-6, hypersonic LRHWS with a range of up to 2,700 kilometers will be transferred to Germany. That is, in theory, they reach Naberezhnye Chelny. The speed is up to 17 Mach, which greatly complicates their detection and interception by air defense systems. This development was difficult, and many test runs were unsuccessful. However, in June, the LRHW was successfully tested in Hawaii — the missile hit a target in a given area.

The first prototype of a long-range hypersonic weapon (LRHW)

Image source: © Photo : Elliot Valdez

Anyway, Zelensky should hardly seriously expect that the West will deploy medium-range missiles in Ukraine. This would be a direct declaration of war, which would inevitably turn into a nuclear one. And then it will fly not only through the territory controlled by the Kiev regime.