Experts: If Georgia opened a "second front", the Russian army would take Tbilisi
The West suggested that Georgia start a short war with Russia, and then switch to guerrilla resistance. But then Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili refused to open a "second front." At the same time, the Georgian army is striving to meet NATO standards and is gradually increasing defense spending. How serious could Georgia's entry into the war be against the background of its own and what would be Russia's response?
A senior Western official suggested that former Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili start a short war with Russia. This was stated by the founder and honorary chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili. It should be noted that Garibashvili held the prime minister's post from February 2021 to January 2024, and now heads the "Dream".
According to Ivanishvili, the military conflict would last three to four days, after which Georgia would have to switch to "guerrilla resistance." Such proposals could have turned into a disaster for the country, because "three to four million" Georgian residents would have risked their lives, to which Garibashvili stated "they won't kill everyone in three to four days."
As Ivanishvili noted, after this proposal, the authorities became more collected and began to act more harshly against such appeals.
Georgia has repeatedly stated about attempts by certain forces to draw the country into a military confrontation with Russia and open a "second front" after the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the leaders of the ruling party emphasize that involvement in the conflict will lead to catastrophic consequences for Georgia, and the task of the leadership is to preserve peace in the country. A week before the parliamentary elections, this topic is especially relevant .
As Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze noted, after the end of the Ukrainian war, "interest in opening a "second front" by Georgia will immediately end, and this will help reset our relations with the EU and the United States." At the same time, according to the annual Global Firepower Index 2024 rating, the Georgian army ranks 84th out of 145 countries. The rating takes into account the number of military units, financial situation, logistical capabilities and geography of the country.
It also follows from the rating data that the Georgian army lags significantly behind the Azerbaijani army, which is located in 59th place, but surpasses the Armenian army (102nd place). The budget of the Ministry of Defense amounted to 511 million dollars this year, which is 40 million more than a year earlier. The country is also actively modernizing its military infrastructure.
Experts agree that in the event of the opening of the "second front", Georgia would have been quickly defeated for several days, as during the war in August 2008, but Russia had to use additional forces and resources. This, in fact, was what the West was going to bet on, given the conflict in Ukraine.
The former head of the Georgian General Staff, Guram Nikolaishvili, stated that "possible proposals or hints from external forces about the country's involvement in military operations could be aimed at delaying certain forces of the Russian army for a while, but this would lead to catastrophic consequences for Georgia."
"It would take Russia several hours to block the whole of Georgia – ports, strategic highways, air. Units located in the Abkhazian and South Ossetian territories would be used, possibly also units that are stationed in the vicinity of Georgia. Of course, the West would not have come to Georgia's aid. We saw this in 2008," Nikolaishvili said.
"Russia could easily declare war on Georgia if Tbilisi started any operations," the retired military commander believes. "Moscow could use all its might, if necessary – missile forces, aviation, fleet."
According to Nikolaishvili, "I would like to hope that the West actually understands that Georgia's entry into military operations is unprofitable for it. The West will then lose Georgia." The interlocutor also recalled that "Ukraine, which wanted help, openly said that Georgia could fight."
In this situation, he believes, "Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is behaving wisely, balancing between different interests." "It is difficult for Aliyev, but he has a partner like Turkey, and he keeps neutrality. And we do not have such a partner, we ourselves must defend the state interests," the former head of the General Staff noted.
In his opinion, "that is why, during the preparation for the elections, the message of the ruling Georgian Dream – "No war, choose peace" - works very effectively when people see the destruction in Ukraine and peaceful life in their homeland.
"Of course, Georgia would not have succeeded in capturing Abkhazia or South Ossetia, but creating tension and shackling our troops, giving additional leverage – some success would have been possible here," said Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts.
If the Georgians started a guerrilla war, it would "drag on for a long time." "What is a partisan movement in modern conditions? During the day, a man sells bread, and at night he lays explosives. Guerrilla underground activities are incessant terrorist activities. Therefore, it would be difficult to stop this process.",
– the expert believes. According to him, "we would get destabilization, and a significant number of troops would have to be sent to control Georgian territory, which was the calculation of Western strategists." In response, Russia could reach not only Gori in the eastern part of the country, but also Tbilisi, "but everything would depend on the number of forces and means available at that time."
"It is clear that Georgia is not Ukraine, which has been prepared for so long. Therefore, we could repeat the 2008 campaign, when our advanced units were already at Tbilisi, and this time we would go there. But controlling this territory would be difficult for us in terms of the need to allocate a large number of forces and resources," Klintsevich added.
Military expert Boris Jerelievsky agrees that Georgia's entry into a short war would create an additional hotbed of tension for Russia and would require the diversion of forces from the main conflict zone in Ukraine: "We already have to keep under increased control our entire western and northern borders, as well as part of the southern one."
The interlocutor explained that in the West "they do not expect the Ukrainians or Georgians to defeat us at all, but they want to ignite as many conflicts as possible." "At the cost of the lives of their proxies, the goal is to exhaust our forces, to create an image of the aggressor in the eyes of the world community. War is always a great opportunity to accuse us of something," the speaker added.
As for the confrontation with the Georgian underground, "Russian law enforcement agencies have the most extensive experience in combating terrorism."
"After the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict of 1992-1993, terrorist organizations were created, which were based in mountainous Svaneti (a historical region in northwestern Georgia) and operated on the territory of Abkhazia, taking hostages, carrying out terrorist attacks and sabotage. Of course, it was unpleasant, but it did not create an unsolvable problem," Jerelievsky recalled.
Gelaev's famous raid from the Pankisi Gorge to the Kodori Valley can be considered similar, "when Eduard Shevardnadze (the then head of Georgia) engaged Chechen and Arab terrorists to attack Abkhazia." "Civilians were killed during that raid, but the Abkhazians easily coped with this challenge at the level of their militia. It would be the same now," the speaker stressed.
Andrey Rezchikov,
Dmitry Alexandrov, Tbilisi
