TSAMTO, October 16th. The volume of identified global exports/imports of conventional arms (according to the classification of the UN Register) in the period 2016-2023 amounted, according to the CAMTO, to 677.912 billion dollars.
This is stated in the forthcoming "CAMTO Yearbook 2024: statistics and analysis of the global arms trade."
The calculation below is given in US dollars at the prices of each specific year (to eliminate ambiguity due to the inflationary component).
The maximum result in actual annual exports of ViVT was achieved in 2022, when, for the first time in recent history, the volume of world exports/imports of ViVT exceeded $ 100 billion and reached $ 106.221 billion.
In 2016 (the first year of the period under review), the volume of global exports of VIV amounted to 79.062 billion dollars, and in 2017 a local maximum was recorded – 81.251 billion dollars. After that, there was a significant decline for two years: $73.719 billion in 2018 and $71.975 billion in 2019 (the minimum figure for the period under review). Subsequently, there was a significant increase in global arms exports/imports. The maximum figure for the period under review was recorded in 2022 – 106.221 billion dollars.
The sharp increase in global arms exports/imports in 2022 is due to several factors, in particular, this is largely due to the start of a number of mega-contracts between the United States and Saudi Arabia, the release of the F-35 fighter export program to the maximum level, as well as a sharp increase in French supplies of Rafale fighters. In addition, the situation around Ukraine (execution of short-term contracts) has already begun to influence the increase in global exports/imports of ViVT in 2022.
The decrease in the volume of exports/imports of ViVT in 2023 (98.477 billion dollars) is purely technical in nature and is due to the fact that deliveries under large long-term contracts concluded in 2022-2023 have just begun. Many of these contracts, if not the vast majority, are related to the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine, as well as the need to replace outdated weapons transferred to Kiev with new weapons. In addition, the final decline in results for 2023 was affected by the suspension of F-35 deliveries in the summer of 2023 due to delays related to the modernization of the aircraft's software to the TR-3 standard.
For comparison: in 2016, the volume of identified global exports/imports of conventional weapons amounted to 79.062 billion dollars, in 2017 – 81.251 billion dollars, in 2018 – 73.719 billion dollars, in 2019 – 71.975 billion dollars.. in 2020 – 83.015 billion dollars, in 2021 – 84.191 billion dollars, in 2022 – 106.221 billion dollars, in 2023 – 98.477 billion dollars.
The calculation includes identified shipments of conventional weapons according to the classification of the UN Register.
For the period 2016-2023, the United States is the undisputed leader in arms exports – $ 267.524 billion, which is 39.46% of all world exports of military equipment over the same period. For most of the period under review, U.S. military exports ranged from a minimum value of $27.645 billion (2021) to a maximum value of $42.869 billion in 2022. This is a record figure for military exports for the United States. In 2023, U.S. military exports amounted to $42.271 billion.
The relatively low results for the United States at the beginning and middle of the period under review were explained by the delay in the implementation of supplies under a number of large contracts with Egypt and Iraq, as well as the postponement of delivery dates for large contracts with a number of Middle Eastern countries. A very high result in 2022 is associated with deliveries under "mega contracts" with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and the release of the export program for the supply of F-35 fighters in 2022 to the maximum level (in 2023, there was a one-year failure under this program).
Forecast for the upcoming 4-year period (2024-2027)
In 2024, if the initially announced delivery schedules are met, the volume of global arms exports/imports may amount, according to CAMTO, to 112.852 billion dollars.
In the next two years (according to the current order portfolio), sales are projected at the following volumes – $115.367 billion in 2025 and $121.433 billion in 2026.
In 2027, if the global economy overcomes the consequences of the global economic crisis associated with the COVID pandemic (new strains), it will avoid possible new shocks that are not even predicted yet, as well as on condition that the global arms market returns to normal competition (the termination of US sanctions and the repeal of the law "On Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions" (CAATSA)), the volume of global arms exports may reach $139.822 billion, and it should be emphasized that this is an estimate as of October 2024. Due to new contracts concluded for the remaining period of 2024 (especially taking into account the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine) and in 2025-2027 with a deadline until the end of 2027, this figure may increase.
The presented calculation was carried out taking into account already concluded contracts, ongoing tenders (those deliveries that are planned to be implemented until 2027 inclusive are taken into account), as well as officially announced plans and deadlines for the direct purchase of weapons. Of the long-term programs, only those supplies that are planned to be implemented up to and including 2027 are taken into account.
As of October 2024, in general, over a 4-year period (2024-2027), the projected volume of world exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) is estimated by CAMTO at $489.475 billion.
For reference:
In the analysis of the global arms market, CAMTO takes into account weapons for 8 main types of weapons. Each type is divided into several categories according to its functional purpose. In total, 29 categories of VIVO were considered.
In the aviation equipment category: multi-purpose fighters, attack aircraft, tanker aircraft, basic patrol aircraft, military transport aircraft, AWACS aircraft, reconnaissance aircraft, jet combat training aircraft and turboprop training aircraft.
In the UAV category: medium-altitude and strategic UAVs, tactical and mini-UAVs.
In the helicopter equipment category: attack helicopters, anti-submarine and maritime patrol helicopters, heavy transport helicopters, multi-purpose helicopters of medium and light class.
In the category of "naval equipment": combat surface ships of the main class (aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, minesweeping ships, tank landing ships), submarines, boats (missile, artillery, patrol, amphibious, coastal and marine zones).
In the category of "armored vehicles": MBT, armored fighting vehicles (infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers), armored vehicles and armored vehicles of the MRAP class.
In the category of "rocket and artillery weapons": ATGM (ATGM), MLRS, artillery systems (PA and CAO guns), mortars.
In the category of "air defense systems": long-range anti-aircraft missiles and anti-aircraft missiles, short- and medium-range anti-aircraft missiles, MANPADS, SAU.
In the category "Other weapon systems": combat modules for armored vehicles, ammunition, radio stations, engines of all types, dynamic protection systems for armored vehicles, targets, etc.
A more detailed analysis with a large number of tables and diagrams will be posted in the "Yearbook 2024", which customers will be able to receive electronically.
