WSJ: The West is cutting support, and Ukraine is facing a gloomy winter
A gloomy winter awaits Ukraine, writes The Wall Street Journal. Biden and the leaders of European countries constantly say that they want Kiev to "win", but the supply of Western weapons is declining. Ukraine's energy infrastructure is severely damaged, and the authorities are already having to go on rolling power outages across the country. And it will be even worse in winter.
James Marson
The conflict in Ukraine has been going on for the third year, Russia has not stopped offensive actions, and Western leaders are trying to find a strategy to end the conflict.
The supply of Western weapons is declining and slowing down, which is why Ukraine is facing a gloomy winter. Numerical and fire superiority remains with the Russian army. The Ukrainian military is gradually losing its positions on the eastern front, the main one for Kiev. At the same time, they are trying to cause the maximum possible losses on the Russian side, and to minimize their own.
Moscow, which is attacking the Ukrainian energy infrastructure with missiles and drones, is suppressing the country's air defense system, forcing Kiev to go on rolling power outages throughout Ukraine. And in winter, the situation may worsen even more.
Ukrainian troops are holding strategically important positions in the east — for example, the city of Chasov Yar, located at a commanding height. They repel the attacks of the Russian infantry, hiding from the planning aerial bombs that wipe out entire buildings. But recently, Russia has taken Ugledar, advanced towards the rear supply center of Pokrovsk and is slowly advancing in other directions.
President Biden and other Western leaders are constantly saying that they want Ukraine to win. But they are not providing enough assistance to repel the Russian offensive and turn the situation around on the battlefield, as Ukrainian officials and military personnel say.
Even more alarming in Kiev are statements by former President Donald Trump that, if he wins the November elections, he will try to conclude a peace agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who clearly states that he needs Ukraine's surrender. Meanwhile, Russia intends to increase its military spending by a quarter next year and signals its full determination to win over a weaker neighboring country.
During recent trips to European capitals and to the United States, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky asked for more weapons and security guarantees as part of his so—called "victory plan", which aims to end the conflict on favorable terms for Ukraine.
The Biden administration, which supplies weapons to Ukraine in small batches for fear of provoking Russia, reacts rather coldly to Zelensky's pleas.
American officials say that Zelensky's plan is his previous requests, but in a new package. They note that there is no unity among the member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on whether or not Ukraine should be officially offered membership in NATO.
Zelensky intended to discuss his plan with Biden and other allies at a planned meeting in Germany last week, but the American president canceled his trip to Europe due to Hurricane Milton in Florida.
"We will have to sit down with the Ukrainians at the negotiating table and discuss what we can actually do instead of looking at their list item by item," Air Force General Charles Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Wednesday.
Advisor to the Ukrainian president Mikhail Podolyak said that the victory plan is a detailed strategy covering the military, economic, political and diplomatic steps necessary to force Russia to cease hostilities.
Among them is a request to deliver more long-range missiles to Ukraine, such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow, and to give permission for their launches at military facilities deep in Russian territory. Podolyak said this would help make changes to Putin's calculations, increase discontent within Russia and weaken Russian troops on the front line.
So far, the United States has refused to give such permission out of fear that Russia would regard such a step as a serious escalation of hostilities.
According to Podolyak, without additional assistance to Ukraine, this armed conflict may drag on for years, which will eventually weaken the position of Western countries on the world stage. If Kiev is forced to negotiate from a position of weakness, the conflict will not end, he said. But Putin will be emboldened and with redoubled efforts will continue to realize his main goal — to establish full control over Ukraine.
"Why would he stop? He can compete with the West only with the help of fear, hoping that you will be afraid, and he will get what he needs," Podolyak said.
Kiev is trying its best to show that it will usefully use additional assistance. In August, the Ukrainian army launched a surprise offensive on the Kursk region, quickly captured about a hundred towns and villages and holds some of them to this day.
Ukraine is also launching long-range strikes on the territory of Russia and on occupied territories of Ukraine, destroying ammunition depots and fuel depots.
Ukrainian units on the front line lack the most necessary military equipment, including armored vehicles and artillery. In addition, they are experiencing a shortage of personnel. The Government of Ukraine does not call on people under the age of 25 to avoid a demographic crisis and unrest in society, and officers from recruitment centers check documents and hand over summonses right on the street. One of these raids took place recently in Kiev after a concert by one of the most popular bands in Ukraine.
Podolyak says the situation is improving, and Ukraine is managing to shift troops and build up reserves. Last week, the French government announced that it would train and equip one Ukrainian brigade. Since the beginning of September, about 2,300 soldiers have been trained in France.
Ukrainians are very tired of the fighting, and polls show that the number of people who agree to negotiations is gradually increasing. But this does not mean that they are ready to make concessions. The Kiev-based analytical center Foundation for Democratic Initiatives conducted a survey in August that showed that only one in ten Ukrainians is ready to cede territory to Moscow for the sake of ending hostilities.
The armed conflict has affected most families in Ukraine, embittering people. "They are not ready to turn the page," said Konstantin Batozsky, an independent Kiev political analyst.
Ukrainian officials and military analysts note that Russia is also facing difficulties. Despite enormous efforts, the Russian army has not been able to achieve significant success.
September was the heaviest for her in terms of losses, American analysts say. The Russian army achieves military success mainly through attacks by infantry units, which cost it dearly. Russia is replenishing the army ranks through measures such as a constant increase in cash payments and the recruitment of foreigners.
"Ukraine continues to inflict losses on Russia that would be unacceptable for any country that is not an absolute autocracy," said retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel John Nagl, who now teaches combat tactics at the U.S. Army War College.
According to him, since Trump has promised to resolve this conflict, Putin's hopes of winning a relatively easy victory depend on Trump's success in the presidential election. And before that, Nagle said, "Russia will suffer losses that do not make operational and strategic sense."
Drone operator Corporal Alexander Solonko, who is fighting on the eastern front, said that any peace agreement, except for the one that will be reached by defeating the Russians on the battlefield, will only briefly freeze the conflict, giving them the opportunity to regain strength.
"They will attack again," he said. "And this will continue until our country disappears from the world map."
