The VKS and air defense of the Russian Armed Forces are ready to meet a new enemy
France plans to supply Ukraine with Mirage 2000 multi-purpose fighters as early as early 2025. Earlier, there were statements about the possible supply of aircraft from other NATO countries — about European Eurofighters and Swedish Gripens. The first American F-16 APU received from Denmark, and they have already been seen in the sky over Ukraine. How the capabilities of the AFU aviation will change if these plans are implemented, and what our VKS and air defense will be able to oppose to the "novelties" — in the Izvestia material.
130 aircraft for Ukraine
For many months, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has been insisting on the supply of Western combat aircraft as one of the conditions for a successful confrontation with Russia. In May 2024, he stated that Kiev needed at least 130 aircraft to conduct successful combat operations. By that time, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Norway had already promised Ukraine 80 F-16s.
Finally, on October 8, 2024, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastian Lecornu announced that they would transfer Mirage 2000 fighters to Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025.
Multifunctional light fighters of American production F-16, transferred to Ukraine
Image source: Photo: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
We are talking about a modification of the Dassault Mirage 2000-5F, intended for export. The planes that are planned to be delivered are now at the French Air Force combat training center Kazo.
The first statement about the possible supply of "Mirages" was made by French President Emmanuel Macron in the summer of 2024. Then they talked about plans to start training Ukrainian pilots.
In an interview with Izvestia, Cyril de Lattre, a former pilot, aviation expert and analyst in the field of geopolitics and strategy, admitted that France could backtrack on the issue of supplying its aircraft if Donald Trump wins the US elections.
— The main question is whether France will go to the end and deliver the aircraft in the first half of 2025. It is possible that, depending on the situation at the front and the results of the US elections, she will change her mind. It is obvious that the situation at the front is not developing in favor of Ukraine. If the Democrats win in the United States, then we can say with 99% certainty that Macron will continue to do stupid things. If Trump is elected, it is likely that there will be a rollback," he added.
French multirole fighter Dassault Mirage 2000-5F
Image source: Photo: Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum
Another important aspect is pilot training. According to Cyril de Lattre, even if Ukrainian pilots complete a Mirage training course, they will be doomed to death because they do not have real experience piloting these aircraft.
— I have 14 thousand flight hours, but they have almost nothing. However, another possibility cannot be ruled out: military pilots to control the F-16, as well as technical personnel, are trained by the Canadian PMCs Top Aces and the American PMCs Draken International. If Russia does not destroy the F-16 and Mirage at airfields based in Ukraine, then I fully assume that some of them will be piloted by Canadian and American mercenaries with Ukrainian passports," he said.
Photo: Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum
Image source: iz.ru
According to the expert, only the flight capabilities of the aircraft are often discussed, but much depends on the operation.
— Flying is just the tip of the iceberg. Without the people who will service these planes, you will not be able to do anything in the sky," he concluded.
Which version of the "Mirages" will be delivered to Ukraine
According to available information, it is planned to deliver from 12 to 20 "Mirages", which are currently undergoing conversion for the use of new types of weapons. Aircraft with electronic warfare systems will be able to carry out air–to–air and air-to-ground missions and not only with French missile weapons.
It is highly likely that Ukraine will be handed over the Mirages, which were previously decommissioned by the French Air Force.
French multirole fighters Dassault Mirage 2000-5F
Image source: Photo: Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum
The Mirage 2000 is in many ways similar to the Soviet MiG-29 — it made its first flight in 1978, and was adopted in 1984. This is a light single-engine multi-purpose fighter, which was in service with the French Air Force and was successfully exported to many countries.
The option that Ukraine can receive into service is specially equipped to perform air–to-ground tasks. It has more serious capabilities than the American F-16 of the first production series, which Ukraine receives from NATO countries.
The SCALP-EG cruise missile
Image source: Photo: TASS/AP/Lewis Joly
The fighter can use the SCALP-EG cruise missiles — this is a complete analogue of the British Storm Shadow. It is very likely that French aircraft will be used for their application. Because it makes no sense to conduct air battles with the Russian Su-35S — our fighter is very likely to take over.
In addition to long-range missiles, the Mirages will be able to carry other correctable and guided munitions for strikes on ground targets. They can also be used in the interests of air defense in the interior of Ukraine — to shoot down drones and cruise missiles.
The appearance of new aircraft over the zone of contact is unlikely. Under the conditions of the dominance of the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defense in the air, their losses are guaranteed.
What other aircraft may appear in Ukraine
The main thing is that Ukrainian pilots will have to master the skills of piloting the Mirages anew. They differ from both traditional Soviet cars and American F-16s.
And even more differences will arise if other European fighters appear after the Mirages. In September, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that consultations were underway with NATO countries on the supply of Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighters and European Eurofighter fighters. Consultations, of course, do not mean immediate delivery, but nevertheless, what and when can be delivered from among these new aircraft brands for Ukraine?
Swedish multirole fighter Saab JAS 39 Gripen
Image Source: Photo: US Air Force
The Eurofighter Typhoon is a 4th generation multirole fighter, it made its first flight in 1994. The aircraft is in service with the Air Forces of Germany, Italy, Spain, Great Britain, Austria and Saudi Arabia. The fighter is mass-produced by a European consortium and it is not entirely clear where their surpluses can be taken for supplies, unless someone shares their aircraft out of stock. Another nuance is the Eurofighter is a very expensive aircraft: the cost is more than $ 120 million. For comparison, the approximate cost of the Mirage 2000 aircraft is about $40 million.
The Eurofighter Typhoon multirole fighter of the German Air Force
Image source: iz.ru
And finally, the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen. The cost of the aircraft is about $50 million, it also belongs to the 4+ generation and is currently being mass—produced for export. The aircraft is multi–purpose and can perform both air–to-air and air-to-ground missions equally effectively. But neither the Eurofighters nor the Gripens have taken part in real combat operations so far.
What will the Russian air defense forces oppose to Western aircraft
All of these aircraft are older or comparable to our Su-30SM and Su-35S. With the only caveat that the capabilities of our Su in air combat are likely to surpass these Western machines. The super maneuverability possessed by our fighters is used not only for unique aerobatics, but also provides an advantage in close combat. And on the far approaches, our aircraft possess R-37M missiles, which currently have no analogues in the West.
The Su-30SM fighter jet before a combat flight in the special operation zone
Image source: Photo: TASS/Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
As for the anti-aircraft missile systems that form the basis of the air defense forces of the Russian Armed Forces, they were created in conditions when potential opponents were already known. All air defense systems can work on all fourth-generation aircraft without exception and equally efficiently.
Thus, the appearance of new aviation equipment at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — if, of course, this really happens — will only increase the amount of combat work of the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defense and slightly increase the consumption of ammunition. But this will not be a decisive factor in the fighting.
Dmitry Kornev
Ivan Dubrovin
Bogdan Stepovoy
