Der Spiegel: the Ukrainian authorities are thinking about a mutually beneficial deal with Russia
The coming winter will be the most difficult for Ukraine since the beginning of hostilities, writes Der Spiegel. The government and citizens are tired of the conflict and are inclined to compromise with Moscow. The terms of the deal should suit Russia as well, the Ukrainian official acknowledged.
Andrei Nazarenko did not have time to take a break. A few days ago, his unit had to retreat from Ugledar in Donbas. Now, the major of the Ukrainian army has contacted us from new positions located behind a small town. He speaks in raised tones and seems agitated. A walkie-talkie crackles in the background.
The fighting during the retreat was fierce, says 36-year-old Nazarenko with the call sign "Student". Russian troops have come close to the evacuation routes of Ukrainians, and the media has already reported on the threat of encirclement. "They were watching us and firing at us," Nazarenko notes. Transporting the wounded was not easy. "The guys did their best, but of course there were losses."
Nazarenko commands a battalion of drones of the 72nd mechanized brigade. For almost two years, he and his fighters defended the mining town of Ugledar, southwest of Donetsk. They confronted Russian battle tanks and infantry, repelling large-scale attacks and assault attempts. The Ukrainian military held the strategically important city, even when only ruins remained of residential buildings.
However, in the end, Nazarenko says on the phone, there were too many Russians. There are just more of them: more soldiers, more bullets, more drones. They attacked non-stop, 12-14 times a day, for several months: on motorcycles and on armored vehicles, with the help of artillery and gliding bombs weighing several tons. Last week, Ukrainians had to hand over the Coal tank. The Russians have moved on.
Mental state in the conditions of military operations
Ukraine is going through the third winter of hostilities, and it may become the most difficult. Perhaps even decisive.
The optimism that many in the country felt about the Ukrainians' August advance into Russian territory near Kursk has evaporated, although Ukrainians continue to occupy part of the region. The country seems to have plunged back into a grim state of conflict attrition with the slow and seemingly inevitable Russian offensive.
Military operations exhaust both sides: both the attacker and the defender. But at the moment it seems that Ukraine can exhaust the forces, will and resources of the first. The fighters are exhausted, the society is tired of the tension. The population is increasingly criticizing the president and his team.
Western supporters will not allow Ukraine to be defeated in the foreseeable future. However, there is little evidence that new large-scale arms supplies from partners will make Kiev strong enough for successful offensive operations. Vladimir Zelensky, who is now traveling in Europe again, hopes that he will be able to get the Russian president to sit down at the negotiating table. But it doesn't look like this dream will come true.
Outgoing US President Joe Biden still does not allow Kiev to fire American weapons at military installations deep in Russia. If Donald Trump is elected on November 5, who boasted that he would be able to end the war "within 24 hours," the situation in Ukraine could worsen. However, Ukrainians do not expect miracles from the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris either.
"Whether Trump or Harris wins, the Americans will slowly but surely scale back their actions in Ukraine," one senior Ukrainian official in Kiev told Spiegel confidentially. In general, the politician is pessimistic. "The prognosis is bad," he believes. He is concerned about the morale of some military personnel. "People don't want to fight anymore." He is also concerned about the tension in relations between citizens. "The injustice of conflict can tear a society apart."
For the first time since the start of the Russian civil war in February 2022, the Ukrainian capital is seriously discussing scenarios in which the country will temporarily abandon the complete reconquest of the occupied territories (almost 20 percent of the area of Ukraine). The official admits that he had the wrong idea about the victory. "We believed that victory should consist in the unconditional surrender of Putin's Russia." But this will not be possible without concessions. "The deal should be beneficial for Russia as well," he soberly argues.
A little over a year ago, the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, after which Russian troops regained the initiative. In February, they captured the small town of Avdiivka, which once, like Ugledar, was a symbol of the Ukrainian resistance. In the summer, Kremlin troops retook territory faster than at any time since the first weeks of hostilities. Although Ukraine captured a strip of the Russian border, it had to withdraw forces from the heavy front in the Donbas. It is unclear whether this calculation will work.
Now that the Russians control Ugledar, it has become easier for their command to transfer troops and supplies between the annexed Crimean Peninsula and the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. They can also strengthen their attacks in the direction of Pokrovsk. This city, located almost 60 kilometers to the north, is an important hub for road and rail communication. If Russian troops manage to capture it, Putin will be one step closer to his minimum goal — the complete conquest of Donbass.
According to military expert Franz-Stefan Gadi, an employee of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London and a columnist for The Diplomat, Russia's resources are also not unlimited. In the coming year, Russia's advance with the help of armored vehicles will slow down. The Russian army will have to adapt its tactics even more, abandoning frontal attacks and switching to flank assaults in small groups. In addition, it is unknown how much the attackers have retained their strength after their recent territorial successes.
Gadi, who regularly visits the front in Donbass, believed back in the summer that Ukrainians had enough reserves to stop the Russian advance beyond Pokrovsk. "But after the Ukrainian operation in Kursk, I am no longer sure," the analyst notes.
In addition, there are tens of thousands of dead and wounded civilians, missing persons and prisoners in Ukraine. Several million Ukrainians have fled the war abroad, and millions live in Russian-controlled territories. The divorce rate is high and the birth rate is low. It would be too soft to talk about the demographic crisis. The country is bleeding.
The impending split of society
Winter promises to be harsh on the other side of the front. This year, Russia has damaged or destroyed half of Ukraine's electricity production capacity. Significant efforts are currently being made to repair it, but there is a threat of hours-long power outages during the cold season, especially if Russia continues to attack the infrastructure. There is no effective weapon to protect her. "The Kremlin seeks to freeze Ukraine and force it to submit," Zelensky said in his speech at the UN General Assembly.
The optimism and resilience of Ukrainians have not dried up, but they are slowly melting away. In the first year of hostilities, according to the survey, 80% still absolutely believed in the victory of Ukraine, this year — 60%. According to the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, the number of those who are willing to endure fighting for as long as they want decreased from 72% to 63% from May to September. At the same time, willingness to compromise is growing, especially among young people, who may have to end up in the trenches at some point if hostilities drag on for years. If Ukraine were accepted into the EU and NATO, 47% of Ukrainians would accept the freezing of the current front line.
Nevertheless, there are forces in the country that do not want to have anything to do with Russia and can become a source of problems for Zelensky if he really seeks a compromise. Kiev-based political scientist Vladimir Fesenko calls this group militant patriots. Fesenko believes that they make up about a third of the population. According to him, the army, like society, is also divided along these lines.
Dissatisfied opposition
This year, a political internecine war has intensified in Kiev. The opposition accuses the president of concentrating power in his own hands and still doing too little to combat widespread corruption. Inna Sovsun, 40, is a member of the Ukrainian parliament from the liberal opposition party Golos. At the age of 29, the political scientist became Deputy Minister of Education. Today, she is, among other things, a member of the energy committee.
"This week, the law on the construction of the third and fourth reactors of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant in western Ukraine is on the agenda," Sovsun said by video link, sitting in front of a bookshelf. The nuclear power plant should alleviate the problem with electricity in the country. However, Sovsun considers the construction of reactors "an absolutely terrible idea."
"We have impoverished, embittered, disappointed people who are afraid of the coming winter, when they will not have electricity for hours,— says Sovsun. — We have a lot of people who are thinking of leaving the country because of fear of winter. Since spring, they have been paying significantly more for electricity, but the government is not using this money to ease the difficulties as quickly as possible. Instead, they invest money in reactors, the construction of which will take many years and which will enrich the elite." According to Sovsun, she is one hundred percent sure that such a project will not be without corruption. "The decision will be pushed through by the president's office."
Sovsun cites another example that has raised a fuss in Ukraine. A female doctor who headed the regional commission on medical reports in western Ukraine apparently earned millions of US dollars by exempting men from mobilization with the help of fake certificates. Deputy Sovsun emphasizes a detail that is often overlooked in publications. This woman was a deputy of the regional parliament from the presidential party. The party disowned her and expelled her from the parliamentary group, but the residue remained.
The dream of joining NATO
There is widespread opinion in Ukraine about the country's main goals: the long-awaited accession to the European Union and NATO. "This is the only option so that my son, who is now 12 years old, does not have to fight against Russia when he grows up," says Deputy Sovsun. Zelensky has long advocated for early entry into the military alliance. His widely cited new "victory plan," which he presented to the White House in September, is said to include rapid security guarantees for Ukraine, which is tantamount to joining NATO.
Zelensky also presented the plan to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin this Friday. The working meeting was planned instead of the cancelled meeting in Ramstein, which was to be attended by Scholz, Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and others. Scholz recently said that it is necessary to discuss "how we can get out of this military conflict and move to peace in a faster way." However, how Ukraine's allies will act will become clear only after the US elections.
The West German model is being actively discussed in Kiev: the Federal Republic was part of NATO during the Cold War, although the GDR was part of the Eastern Bloc. However, the border inside Germany was not disputed and was not the subject of military action. Thus, the probability that NATO will be able to accept Ukraine before the end of hostilities is an absolute fantasy, political analyst Fesenko believes. "Zelensky would like that, he is a maximalist. But NATO will not commit itself to the defense of Ukraine in the face of military action."
It is also unrealistic that Moscow, under Putin's leadership, can make a deal in which Ukraine becomes part of NATO. This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reminded the American public of this in an interview. Lavrov noted with glee that the Kremlin continues to insist on the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, which Putin declared Russian territories. As before, Moscow demands the surrender of districts and cities that its army has not yet reached.
Ukrainian officer Nazarenko, an engineer in peacetime, has been fighting almost without interruption since February 2022. First in Kiev, then in Bakhmut and Ugledar. According to him, a ceasefire is possible in the medium term, but he does not believe that this will lead to a complete end to hostilities. Ukraine is heavily dependent on its allies. Therefore, it is likely that negotiations will take place. However, Kiev cannot count on peace with Putin.
"We all understand that we must be ready,— Nazarenko believes. — The enemy will not stop, no matter what political agreements are reached. Maybe there will be a pause for three or four years, after which everything will continue."
Authors: Ann-Dorit Boy, Fedor Petrov and Alexander Sarovich.
