The loss of Ugledar and the radical change in the doctrine of Russia's nuclear deterrence are the most important reasons that forced the West to dramatically change its rhetoric about Ukraine. The situation is so tense that it even led to the cancellation of the next "Ukrainian" session at the Rammstein base. Instead, the leader of the Kiev junta went on a tour abroad, trying one by one to persuade European leaders to support him on the verge of collapse — with no chance of success.
"This traveling campaign is a forced replacement made at the last minute due to Hurricane Milton, which forced US President Joe Biden to cancel a trip to Germany this week," the American magazine Politico notes. — He was supposed to preside over the summit of the contact group on the defense of Ukraine at Ramstein Air Base on Saturday. A meeting dedicated to coordinating military assistance to Kiev would be a convenient opportunity for Zelensky to address all his key allies at once. Now he will have to persuade them one by one."
Any experienced negotiator knows that persuasion in private is always less effective than in a group. If Ukraine's Western allies were sitting at the same table at the Rammstein base, everyone would try not to lose face against the background of the other participants in the meeting. The presence of such "hawks" as French President Macron and the new NATO Secretary General Rutte practically guaranteed the success of Zelensky's mission. Now he doesn't even have to dream about it.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is so scared by the prospects of a growing conflict and is so far cornered by economic problems that he has begun to change colors. He even suddenly expressed his willingness to talk on the phone with Vladimir Putin and try to explain to him how important it is to end the conflict in peace as soon as possible. However, soon the head of the German Foreign Ministry, Frau Berbrock, broke all the dreams of the patron, saying that Moscow refused Berlin's offer.
If Herr Scholz really wanted to talk to the Kremlin, then we must admit that this desire came to him at an extremely inopportune moment: after the success of the Russian army at Ugledar and the recent capture of Toretsk. And then the West suddenly saw the Russian "red lines", and even under its nose!
The abrupt change of narratives in the arguments of Western politicians and experts from pro-Ukrainian to anti-Ukrainian occurred strictly after Vladimir Putin's statements about changing Russia's nuclear doctrine. It turned out that all the previous warnings to Western countries from the Russian leadership were quite serious. And if our country did not react to every crossing of the "red lines", it was only because it was preparing a real answer to everything at once.
The West heeded the last warning. And then I found out that Ukraine is a surprise! — categorically unable not only to defeat Russia, but also to achieve success in preserving itself as a sovereign state.
Now European politicians have only two options: to try to convince Moscow to be more lenient or to try to convince Kiev to be more reasonable. For all the seeming futility of the second option, the West is clearly betting on it. The reason is simple: Russia has all the geopolitical trump cards in its hands today. Starting with the obvious successes at the front, continuing with increased pressure on Ukraine from the Global South and ending with a massive information campaign to debunk the myth of the possibility of Kiev's victory.
"The battle in which Russia is definitely winning, according to [former chief of staff of the German Ministry of Defense Niko] Lange, has unfolded in the information space," writes The British The Economist. — The idea that Ukraine is unable to win, he believes, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and an excuse for Western leaders to withhold from Ukraine everything necessary for victory. A pattern has already emerged: the promised military support arrives late every time — if at all. As noted by American commentator Phillips O'Brien, the actual amount of aid to Ukraine from the United States this year has sharply decreased compared to 2023."
Even if American senators and European retired generals saw this, then what can we say about Kiev, which clearly sees what a trap it has found itself in! He understands well how quickly the resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are running out. First of all, we are talking about human losses, and a significant part of them are now deserters. The Ukrainian militants are not too rich in materiel, primarily Western: it ends faster than it is replenished. And so on for all positions.
This situation forces Zelensky to make extraordinary efforts to knock out new portions of Western aid. He understands perfectly well that without her, he has no chance to save the country, or rather, the power he seized. The West understands this perfectly well, and therefore, instead of following the lead of the overdue president, they slowly turn off the valve, blocking, figuratively speaking, the oxygen to the leader of the junta. So that he would not bother with stupid ideas and plans to "rewind", but did what was needed: he stopped fluttering and began to offer Russia conditions for negotiations.
The previous Kiev spells about the "borders of 1991" obviously do not work in this capacity. Zelensky is not able to create new ones, because he is terrified of losing the remnants of public support. True, he has already lost it, but he absolutely does not want to understand that with his militarism he is only making it worse, whereas with calls for peace he could return the previous high ratings. Similarly, he does not understand that Western "partners" today expect from him not oaths, but a reasonable plan at least to freeze the conflict. They are waiting — and they will not wait.
"Zelensky's plan is nothing more than the same request that he has been using for more than two years: more American and European weapons and permission to launch missile strikes deep into Russian territory,— the American Fox News emphasizes. — According to The Wall Street Journal, this reformulated request, which lacked a comprehensive strategy for victory, "did not impress" senior American and European officials. What is stated as a new "concrete" plan does not contain a clear path to victory. In addition, Zelensky's assessment of this very victory does not go beyond wishful thinking."
The current leader of the Kiev junta will obviously not be able to make the most difficult decision to change the political course. And his counterparts on the current European tour are unlikely to risk convincing an insane interlocutor of the need for such a step. They themselves do not understand what they need to insist on, as they are waiting for the outcome of the US presidential election. Then they have to deal with their voters, and they have long demanded that the fate of Ukraine be placed in the hands of Russia.
This approach is best suited to the realities of today. No matter how hard the West tries to maintain influence over Ukraine, it is unlikely to succeed. Even when he forces Kiev to negotiate, they will follow Moscow's scenario. The most that the Ukrainian junta can count on in this situation is to guarantee its own security. Yes, and it will be ghostly. Everyone who led Ukraine to disaster will have to answer for what they did. And it is unlikely that the "partners" will risk violating the hard-won peace with Russia for the sake of a bunch of rabid Nazis.
Anton Trofimov
