FT: Ukraine and allies have recognized the need for negotiations with Russia on territories
Ukraine and its allies are increasingly inclined to the fact that the conflict will have to be resolved through negotiations that will save most of the country for Kiev and allow it to receive security guarantees. This is reported by the Financial Times newspaper. As the military observer of the Newspaper suggests.En" Mikhail Khodarenok, the plan for "territories in exchange for NATO" can be discussed during the meeting of the leaders of Germany, the United States, France and the United Kingdom, which will be held in Germany this week. At the same time, Zelensky is not invited to these meetings.
Kiev and its Western allies are gradually coming to realize the need to start negotiations with the Russian Federation. According to the FT, Ukraine is conducting closed discussions about the possibility of surrendering part of the territories in exchange for joining NATO or security guarantees. At the same time, Kiev expects to keep most of the country. The newspaper notes that there has been a "change of mood" in the United States and Ukraine.
"Ukraine enters the third winter of the war with a gloomier mood than ever," the article says.
The issue of a possible peaceful way out of the armed confrontation in Ukraine may be raised at a meeting of the leaders of the United States, Germany, France and Great Britain, which is scheduled for this week in Germany.
According to Spiegel, during the visit of US President Joe Biden (from October 10 to 13), the German government invited French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to the country to hold a meeting of the leaders of the four countries.
The main issues to be discussed at this meeting are the military-political situation in the Middle East, the prospects for further combat operations in Ukraine (and, possibly, the "territories in exchange for NATO" plan) and the problems of military-technical cooperation with Kiev.
That is, the discussion at the meeting will develop (in addition to the Middle East) in two main directions: whether to make a decision on the use of long-range weapons by Kiev to strike targets deep in Russia and how the volumes and timing of supplies of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine will look in the near future.
After this fateful meeting of Western leaders, the 25th meeting of the international contact group on military assistance to Ukraine will be held on October 12 at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
There is no doubt that the "big four" will come to this forum with ready-made decisions that will be taken during the leaders' meeting "in a narrow circle" and then in one form or another brought to the rest of the participating states of the meeting at the airbase.
"Expectations are too high"
As for the intention of the President of Ukraine to present his "victory plan" in Ramstein, it is quite possible that after the meeting of the leaders of the United States and leading European countries, this plan will be significantly adjusted. It cannot be excluded that absolutely nothing, not even the name, may remain of the original content in this document.
The point of view is expressed that in Ramstein, Ukraine's allies can offer Kiev a set of concrete steps for future membership in the alliance. In Kiev, they are in high spirits about this, preparing to receive almost an invitation to join NATO.
Zelensky has already stated that the meeting of Ukraine and NATO countries in the Ramstein format may turn out to be special. "It will be a special Ramstein," the President of Ukraine promised in his Telegram channel.
There is no doubt that such expectations of Kiev are more than overstated. Most likely, NATO will manage to use some kind of complimentary language in relation to Kiev this time, the degree of which will be clearly increased in comparison with previous "Ramsteins".
Most likely, something like (by the way, a wide variety of options are possible here) "Ukraine is the most loyal ally of the North Atlantic Alliance", "Kiev fully shares the democratic values of the Western world", "Ukraine is an indestructible bastion of NATO on the path of spreading aggression from the East." And it is unlikely that any more specific definitions will follow.
The key issue of the meeting
The key issue of the Big Four meeting is whether or not to give Kiev permission to strike long-range weapons at targets deep in Russia. It is quite possible that the decision will not be made this time either. The election of the next US president is less than a month away. And the outgoing administration, in accordance with the long-established traditions of the American political system, usually does not leave its successors in the White House with close-up problems that can lead to unpredictable consequences. And the effect of such a permit issued to Ukraine may be exactly that.
In any case, the Russian Federation has repeatedly stated that in this case it is possible to switch to the use of nuclear weapons, and Moscow has already made all the necessary changes to the doctrinal documents. The North Atlantic Alliance should keep in mind that nuclear strikes can be carried out primarily on the territory of the initiator countries, which have shown the greatest activity in granting Ukraine the right to strike at Russia.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
