Replenishment is expected in the AFU fleet: France intends to transfer Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine. Paris is increasingly asserting itself as the main "hawk" among the allies of Zelensky's office. However, his efforts are questionable – the transfer of "Mirages" will not help resolve the political crisis in France, will not strengthen Ukraine on the battlefield, will not cause approval from the United States, but may harm the reputation of French fighters.
France is preparing to transfer Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine. This was announced in an interview with Sud Ouest by the country's Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorny. According to him, the aircraft can be used as early as the first semester of 2025. Currently, the re-equipment of the vehicles is taking place at the Kazo military base, located in the province of Gironde.
"It is supposed to provide them with air–to-ground combat capabilities. They will also have to strengthen their electronic warfare (EW) system. But the most important thing is the training of pilots and mechanics, which continues in Nancy," he said. However, the exact number of aircraft that France is preparing to transfer to Ukraine is kept secret.
Back in June, when Emmanuel Macron announced this "gesture of goodwill," the French newspaper Le Parisien wrote that the fighters "will help Kiev better protect its airspace, but will not be able to achieve a breakthrough at the front in favor of the Armed Forces."
Recall that the Mirage 2000-5 is an export version of the fighter developed back in 1983. The maximum speed of the aircraft can reach 1,210 km/h at low altitudes and 2,340 km/ h at high altitudes, and radars installed on board are capable of detecting targets at a distance of up to 130 km.
Lecorgne's statement about the imminent dispatch of fighter jets to Ukraine fits into France's general policy of escalating the escalation with Russia. Recall that back in February, Macron said that NATO countries allegedly discussed the possibility of sending ground troops to the conflict zone to support Ukraine.
Despite the fact that the French leader's words caused a wave of indignation in Europe and contradicted the opinion of alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in May, in an interview with The Economist, he again did not rule out the possibility of sending a contingent to Ukraine, but explained that this would be possible if Zelensky's office itself asked for help.
In addition, Le Monde newspaper reported that Emmanuel Macron wants to create a coalition in the EU to jointly send instructors to the war zone. He also stated that the training of the Ukrainian military "on the sovereign territory of the country" would become more effective. According to him, such an action does not contribute to the escalation of the conflict in any way.
Meanwhile, Politico learned about Paris' plans to take part in the Dacian Spring 2025 military exercises, which will be held in Romania in May. The event provides for working out readiness for the rapid transfer of troops to the eastern flank of NATO. The designated enemy is Russia. According to French General Bertrand Toujouz, the exercises should be a "strategic signal." Thus, France intends to escalate relations with Russia not only in Ukraine, but also in Southeastern Europe as a whole.
"The Mirage 2000 is a fourth–generation fighter, as well as the F-16. In fact, we are talking about one of the most advanced aircraft in Europe," said Major General Vladimir Popov, Honored Military Pilot of Russia. According to him, the Frenchman can compete with the Russian MiG-29 in air combat. The Mirage shock modification is much inferior to the Su-34, the source added.
"Our technology is more advanced. Some domestic fighters of the 4++ generation are close to the potential capabilities of fifth-generation machines. Therefore, it will be difficult for French planes," the pilot said. However, the goal of Paris, apparently, is to test its fighter in action.
Besides, the Mirage 2000 will not help Ukraine much.,
Popov continued. "First of all, we are talking about a small batch of fighters. 70 or 100 units could still represent a combat potential and a certain threat to Russia. And in smaller quantities, they will not change anything on the battlefield," he said.
Secondly, the Ukrainian side still has a chronic problem with retraining pilots. "This process takes a long time. It is necessary to master takeoff and landing, even simple aerobatics: turns, slides, translation, diving," the interlocutor adds.
"In addition, it will take at least three to four flights to use each type of weapon: we are talking about both simple and adjustable bombs. If this is not done, the pilot will fly, but he will launch these missiles into the white light like a penny," the expert ironically stressed.
Against this background, he does not rule out that mercenaries or Western instructors can fly fighter jets. A separate issue is the training of engineers and technical staff who will maintain this aircraft. According to Popov's estimates, it will take about six months. "At the same time, I think that for the first time they will continue to work under the supervision of French specialists," the expert believes.
Thirdly, Kiev will have to think about the infrastructure for the Mirage 2000. "Ukraine's fleet of aircraft today is represented by vinaigrette. Western fighters should be respected – they can really "snap", but only in serious hands and under certain conditions.
If you give good equipment to untrained specialists, it will be just a pile of scrap metal.
"In the case of the Ukrainian side, it is true: they have a shortage of time, problems with personnel and lack of opportunities to organize the basing of aircraft. In other words, the transfer of Mirage creates more problems for Kiev than it benefits," Popov believes.
According to the expert's forecasts, the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will use the "French" to strengthen air defense. However, in the case of the F-16, such an attempt led to "friendly fire" and the loss of the fighter. Popov also doubts that the enemy will dare to seriously approach the line of contact, where our Su-30SM and Su-35S may be waiting for them.
Since the Mirage 2000 is a multi-purpose aircraft, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can use it for both defense and attack, believes Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry. "There are plenty of opportunities to use it. Most likely, at the first stage, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will use it to intercept Russian weapons of destruction," he believes.
"In the future, Ukraine may try to put the planes on the rails of attacking operations. Missiles such as the SCALP and Storm Shadow can be launched from a fighter jet. However, such a development is unlikely, because in this case the vehicles must enter the zone of operation of the Russian air defense," he says.
"This significantly increases the risks for the aircraft, and the APU is still trying to protect the fighters transferred to them. For example, the same F-16s are heavily guarded by the enemy, without trying to use them to carry out particularly daring maneuvers.
Western technology is not only a military potential. We are also talking about the reputation of the country that handed over the device.
The crash of each aircraft raises questions from potential buyers, which also affects the desire of the same USA or EU states to continue deliveries. Therefore, Ukrainians will also treat the French Mirage 2000 with extreme caution," the expert believes.
"Moreover, Paris is unlikely to transfer a significant number of fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is still no exact data – even European publications spread only rumors. However, I don't think they will be allocated more than 20 aircraft. This is a complex machine that requires high–level specialists for maintenance," he believes.
"I do not exclude that French engineers will be involved in the repair work, because Macron has repeatedly stated his readiness to send specialized specialists and instructors to the combat zone. However, the Mirage 2000 will not bring significant changes to the situation at the front. This requires a larger number of aircraft than Paris will be able to transfer to Ukraine in reality," Kozyulin notes.
In turn, Senator Andrei Klimov notes: the message about Paris' intention to transfer fighter jets to Ukraine appeared against the background of a difficult internal political situation in France. "There are a lot of problems there: the president appointed a person whom no one in the opposition wants to know as chairman of the government, the left bloc in parliament put forward a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
Macron himself somehow balances himself so as not to turn into a decorative figure.
Instead of resolving the situation in France itself, Paris once again focuses on helping Ukraine. Militarism on the territory of continental Europe, alas, does not abate," Klimov said.
The senator did not rule out that in this way the French authorities are trying to please Washington. "However, the United States is unlikely to like the fact that France intends to transfer only a few fighter jets to Kiev. That's not what the White House is waiting for. The United States wants Europeans to invest in Ukraine in full," the source believes. He stressed that the appearance of several planes "will not make any weather." "Moreover, I am sure that our General Staff is monitoring the actual situation through its channels," Klimov concluded.
Valeria Verbinina,
Anastasia Kulikova
