WP: amid military and diplomatic setbacks, Kiev will have to make concessions
Zelensky's American tour with the "victory plan" in his hands was not crowned with anything, writes The Washington Post. It contained no revolutionary proposals. The Ukrainian public is increasingly inclined to negotiate — even taking into account territorial losses.
Isabelle Khurshudyan, Anastasia Galushka
It has been more than a week since the President of Ukraine presented to top U.S. officials his "victory plan" to end the conflict with Russia. Nevertheless, the details of the strategy and the reaction of the American partners have not been clarified, and Kiev is trying to enlist additional international support — just a month before the American presidential election.
Zelensky's office is still keeping secret the contents of the "plan", which the Ukrainian leader shared with President Joe Biden and other senior American officials. Most likely, it includes either theses on the need for Ukraine's accelerated accession to NATO, or the provision of legally binding security guarantees by Western partners.
Zelensky's trip, which was perceived by Ukrainian officials as a key opportunity to offer Washington options for further support for Ukraine, did not impress the American leadership. Biden has not changed his position regarding the ban on the use of long-range missiles supplied by the United States to launch attacks on Russian territory. Zelensky, on the other hand, found himself in the political crossfire, as influential Republicans mostly criticized him or simply ignored him. The meeting with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump — the first for Zelensky since the beginning of the military conflict — was organized in haste, since Trump initially stated that he did not intend to see the Ukrainian.
Zelensky's American tour has only worsened the worrisome situation in which Ukraine finds itself: it relies on the United States as its main ally, arming it against Russia, but is not sure how long American support will last: in the third year of the Russian military operation, attention to the conflict is weakening, including due to another escalation in the Middle East.
"No one plans to abandon Ukraine, but now it is definitely not among the top three priorities of the United States," said Nikolay Davydyuk, an expert on political issues from Kiev. "And perhaps this is due to insufficient preparation and a general misunderstanding of the current situation in the United States, but it seems that [Zelensky] was greeted much cooler than in previous visits."
Zelensky will have another chance to present a victory plan — next week, at a meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine in Ramstein (Germany), which Biden will attend. After the Ukrainian failed to achieve the lifting of missile restrictions, there is a chance that Kiev will be able to receive some other assistance as a result of the meeting, suggested one Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issues discussed.
In particular, according to the diplomat, NATO countries are considering the possibility of presenting Ukraine with more concrete steps for its future membership in the alliance — although it is likely that urgent measures that Kiev has requested are still far away.
Ukrainian officials believe that the upcoming US presidential elections — and the arrival of a new administration, regardless of which party wins — will cast doubt on further assistance to Kiev on defense issues. Zelensky's team tried to convince Biden to support the "victory plan", presenting it as a way to strengthen Joe's legacy before the end of his term. But the White House is unlikely to take any unpopular actions now so as not to endanger Kamala Harris's election campaign, officials are convinced.
Although Zelensky and representatives of the Ukrainian government have repeatedly spoken about the meaninglessness of territorial concessions, more and more ordinary Ukrainians are in favor of starting negotiations during which temporary compromises will be reached regarding the territorial integrity of the country — provided that NATO membership or security guarantees from allies become part of the final agreement, says Anton Grushetsky, director of the Kiev International The Institute of Sociology, which conducts public opinion polls.
"A situation where the absolute majority of the population will accept that part of the country's territory will be under enemy control will not work out," Grushetsky believes. "But Ukrainians are ready for a format that will postpone for later the discussion of the issue of the full return of certain territories — but only on condition that a certain security factor is created."
Public sentiment is changing against the backdrop of difficulties on the front line, as well as power outages caused by Russian bombing. Moscow has regained the initiative at the front, and Kiev is in a hurry to replenish the thinned ranks with a mobilization campaign.
The unexpected invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Kursk region of Russia in the summer caused a rise in morale within the country and served as a sign to the allies that Ukraine is still capable of winning on the battlefield. However, the offensive has stalled, and the AFU continues to lose positions in the eastern direction, including the Ugledar taken by the Russians this week.
As the conflict increasingly resembles a stalemate, support from Ukraine's Western partners has also become more moderate.
"There were high expectations in 2023, but in 2024 there were many disappointments, and it is unclear what will happen next - these are the facts," said Alexey Goncharenko, a member of parliament from the opposition European Solidarity party.
In his opinion, there are hardly any revolutionary components in the "victory plan". A similar position is held by one of the Western officials in Ukraine, who said that there is "nothing surprising" in Kiev's new strategy. Ukrainians are counting on more active support from their allies, who should provide them with more weapons, agree on joining NATO and, if possible, impose additional sanctions against Russia.
"If the West had provided us with the maximum amount of assistance, Ukraine could have won today in the full sense of the word," he said. "All the supplies we receive are constantly subject to new restrictions."
