And what other ammunition can NATO countries supply to Kiev — how will Russia respond
The APU has already been used in attacks on our facilities by American ATACMS missiles and European Storm Shadow and SSRP missiles. Earlier, the Russian ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov, said that the United States was paving the way for a nuclear conflict by encouraging Ukraine to use American weapons deep into Russia. According to him, this decision will be "a serious step not just towards escalation," but the road that "the administration is paving towards a nuclear conflict." Experts note that the changes to the Russian nuclear doctrine, which were recently presented by Vladimir Putin, have already "cooled the ardor" of politicians in key Western countries. Our air defense forces are also ready to fight long-range weapons, experts add.
The West's New Nuclear Doctrine
Despite the fact that Kiev already possesses missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory, the United States and Ukraine's main allies have not yet given Vladimir Zelensky permission to use these weapons in this way. Following his visit to Washington, the Ukrainian leader said that the issue of the use of long-range weapons by Kiev has not yet been resolved and is being considered by partners. Neither the UK nor France have yet given the green light for such permits.
From left to right: President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky (powers expired on May 20, 2024) and U.S. President Joe Biden, Washington, USA, September 26, 2024
Image source: Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
As Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov recalled on October 3, a possible decision by the United States to allow Kiev to strike with long-range American systems deep into Russian territory would be "a serious step not just towards escalation," but the road that "the administration is paving towards a nuclear conflict."
According to him, Russia must do everything possible to avoid a nuclear war, since there can be no winners in this kind of conflict.
One of the Kremlin's attempts to prevent such an escalation was the recently announced changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine by Vladimir Putin. In the new version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear country, will be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.
Commenting on these changes, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed on September 26 that we are talking about a "certain signal" sent by Moscow to unfriendly countries.
"This is a signal that warns these countries about the consequences if they participate in an attack on our country by various means, and not necessarily nuclear," he said.
The West and, first of all, the United States received a signal from Moscow, and it scared them, says political scientist Igor Pshenichnikov.
— The meaning of Putin's statement is that Moscow will consider any strike, as if on behalf of Kiev, as a blow inflicted by its Western allies. So, of course, it cooled their ardor," he added.
Another question is what the West says publicly and what is behind the scenes. They are trying to use Ukraine as a tool "not just to fight Russia, but to destroy Russia," the expert believes.
The United States and Great Britain want to weaken us, but to do it by someone else's hands. However, they are still not ready for a direct conflict with Russia, so after Vladimir Putin's statements, they do not give Kiev permission to strike long-range missiles deep into Russian territory, he concluded.
What long-range missiles can the APU use
I think decisions on weapons that can only be transferred to Ukraine have been made a long time ago — before the announcement of changes in the doctrine, and we are ready for any development of events, military expert Gennady Alekhine believes.
"It's just that all the steps are being taken gradually," he said. — We remember the discussion about the Patriot air defense system. Then it was about the fact that when they were given to the enemy, everything would change on the line of contact. Then, with the same rhetoric, American Abrams tanks and British Challenger tanks were put on the front. Now, at all levels, they are talking about a possible permission for Ukraine to hit NATO missiles deep into Russia.
Patriot air defense system
Image source: Photo: TASS/IMAGO/Malte Ossowski/SVEN SIMON
The expert noted that the United States had about a thousand ATACMS missiles, they had already supplied about a hundred APU, and in this scenario they would be able to supply no more than 200 more.
These missiles have already been used. One of the largest enemy attacks using ATACMS missiles on Russian territory was the shelling of Sevastopol on June 23, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. At that time, 124 people, including 27 children, were injured and injured to varying degrees.
ATACMS is an American—made solid-fuel tactical surface-to-Surface ballistic missile. It has a powerful high-explosive fragmentation part weighing 227 kg and a cassette part weighing 560 kg. Their firing range is up to 300 km, in the export version it is less — up to 165 km. These munitions are launched from highly mobile HIMARS installations. In this case, the Crimean Bridge and all military facilities of the peninsula, as well as Rostov-on-Don, Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh, are within reach.
— The enemy has already used these missiles in attacks on the territory of new regions. In particular, during a fire raid on the military airport in Berdyansk in the Zaporozhye region, - said Alekhine.
The AFU already has long-range cruise missiles of Franco—British production - Storm Shadow and its French-made counterpart, the SSLP. The range of the product and the power of the warhead roughly correspond to similar characteristics of the American missile. However, the latter has significant advantages.
ATACMS Missile
Image source: Photo: TASS/Zuma
Storm Shadow is launched from aircraft that are vulnerable in the air to air defense and missile defense systems. In addition, the coordinates of the target must be laid on the ground before departure. Kiev first used British-French cruise missiles in May 2023. Then Lugansk became the target, this was reported in the Joint Center for Control and Coordination (JCCC) of the LPR.
Ukraine is going to transfer the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles, there has been talk about this for a long time. This is an American high-precision air-to-Ground cruise missile with a range of more than 370 km. The new modification can reach about 1000 km. They are suspended on the F-16, the aircraft can carry two such missiles. JASSM was created using low radar visibility technology. They can maneuver during flight, making them difficult to intercept.
— As a target for anti-aircraft missile units, the ATACMS missile is not of great difficulty. The S-300 and S-400 Triumph systems, which have the potential of non-strategic missile defense, are successfully fighting air attack weapons. In addition, the S-350 Vityaz anti-aircraft missile system is capable of simultaneously firing at 12 ATACMS—type ballistic targets, and the number of simultaneously guided missiles can reach 32 units, Gennady Alekhine said.
The Russian Defense Ministry also reported that the calculation of the anti-aircraft missile system shot down the enemy's Storm Shadow and ATACMS cruise missiles in the Avdiivka direction. It happened on October 1st. On October 30, 2023, the first case of mass destruction of this type of missiles in the air by domestic air defense occurred. As a result, eight cruise missiles were shot down in the sky over Crimea.
The Russian Armed Forces have anti-aircraft systems capable of confidently destroying all of the above-mentioned missiles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the expert noted. Our air defense calculations have repeatedly shot down all types of these munitions, except for JASSM, which has not yet been delivered to the enemy, he concluded.
Gennady Alekhine
Julia Leonova
Ivan Dubrovin
