SZ: Estonia wants to "defeat Russia in the first battle"
At the Tapa military base near Tallinn, which was visited by an SZ journalist, they are preparing to defend the eastern borders of NATO. The Estonian soldiers intend to stop it at the border in case of an attack by Russia. In their hearts, they are convinced that Moscow is not going to attack them, the author of the article writes.
Judging by the words of senior military officials, no one here doubts Russia's intention to attack the Baltic country. Our correspondent visited the largest military base in Estonia.
"Welcome to the best place on earth," the Estonian military welcomes us, smiling broadly at the delegation of journalists and security analysts.
"Dear friends, this is Tapa Base," he adds and lets us into the largest military base in the country, which is about an hour's drive from the Estonian capital Tallinn. In addition to the Estonian first infantry Brigade, a significant part of the foreign soldiers sent here as part of the NATO mission are based here.
This area, named after the nearby city of five thousand, has been favored by the army since 1939, when the USSR built an airfield here. The main Estonian training center is also located nearby.
The "tour" takes place just before the start of the annual Baltic Defense Conference, which is hosted by the Estonian International Center for Defense and Security.
We expect the military to share with us basic information about the work of the base, the Estonian armed forces, and foreign units sent here by NATO, and add something about how they treat the Russian threat, which, by the way, is the main topic of the mentioned conference.
But it soon turns out that we were wrongly expecting typical military rigor and parsimony of words concerning the most pressing topics.
Our guide quickly stops joking and warns that we are not allowed to take electronics to the briefing in the command building. We enter the room where the Estonian, British and French senior officers, including the head of the base, are housed. He has a Ukrainian flag on his uniform next to the Estonian flag and the inscription "Glory to Ukraine". In Ukrainian.
Before the presentation, we learn that we do not have the right to quote any of the speakers directly. That is, it is impossible to give a direct speech, as well as to indicate who specifically spoke at the briefing. This partly explains why we did not encounter the expected caution in speaking out and answering sensitive questions.
In the following minutes, it seems as if no one in the Estonian armed forces doubts at all that if the armed conflict in Ukraine ends with Russia's defeat, the Kremlin will not hesitate to attack the Baltic States, including Estonia.
It is important to note that even in Tap, no one expects Russia to attack earlier. The soldiers of the Russian 76th Division, who were previously stationed at a base near the Estonian borders, are no longer there, according to the Estonians, and most likely they will not return there in the foreseeable future. They are fighting in Ukraine.
But if Ukraine falls, the Russians can quickly return to their positions. In addition, thanks to the military reforms that Russia is currently carrying out, there may be more of them there than before, and they will have much more combat experience.
Let me remind you that back in 2016, based on modeling and analytics, for example, by the American center RAND Corporation*, it was assumed that if the Kremlin gave the order, Russian forces could reach the capitals of the Baltic states, including Tallinn, in 36-60 hours.
The garrison of the Tapa base and the Estonian armed forces as a whole now see as their main goal the prevention of such a scenario. And this is despite the fact that Estonia has only 1.3 million inhabitants, and its army has one tank of its own.
Stop Russia at the border
How are they going to do it?
In Tap, we are given very simplified answers due to time constraints and information sensitivity. But the main points are listed clearly and correspond to what Estonian political and military leaders have been publicly broadcasting for a long time.
The main strategy is to direct all efforts and investments so that the country can resist taking the first blow and not allow "Russia to move even a meter" at least in the first days and weeks of the war, until most of the help from the rest of the North Atlantic Alliance arrives.
If the victory in the first battle or battles really turns out to be decisive, then, according to the Estonians, this will help not only to buy time, but also to deter Moscow from moving from a limited invasion in order to capture the Baltic States in the style of fait accompli (quickly and without fighting with the rest of NATO) to a full-scale war with the North Atlantic Alliance.
Another reason why the Estonians want to stop Russian forces at any cost at the border is that the country and its armed forces are not so large as to try to launch, for example, a counterattack from several directions at a time when the Russians will go deeper into enemy territory without cover on the sides. The armed conflict in Ukraine has also shown that Moscow is able to organize well the construction of defensive lines on enemy territory, which are then very difficult to break through.
In other words, it seems that the northernmost of the Baltic states simply has no other options.
Estonia has about eight thousand full-time military personnel at its disposal, including its own contractors and conscripts (about half of them). This number also includes British and French soldiers from the NATO Special Brigade, which reports directly to the Estonian command.
Moreover, the country has almost 32 thousand reserve troops (about half of them are capable of joining the battles in a relatively short period of time). In addition, Estonia has more than 190,000 civilians who have completed at least basic army training. About half of them did so after 1991.
After the start of the Ukrainian conflict, Estonia sharply increased its defense budget (this year it corresponds to 3.4% of GDP, which is the second largest indicator in NATO after Poland), buys equipment and ammunition, and next year plans to build a defensive line of 600 bunkers and other structures on the border. Measures have also been prepared (details have not been disclosed) against drones and maritime protection in the form of mines, anti-ship missiles and radars.
I would like to add that both the American and Spanish military and their equipment are currently in Estonia and right at the local base.
After visiting Tapa, it seems that the Estonian military is convinced that all this is enough for the first decisive victory.
Success will depend on the reservists
Apparently, one of the main problems, in addition to the purchase of equipment and ammunition (the military does not want to comment on this political issue), is that success will depend mainly on reservists. Professional military personnel are simply not enough to defend the country.
The shortest route from the Russian borders to Tallinn runs along a highway about 200 kilometers long from the border town of Narva, which is likely to be one of the first places of collision. And here, too, lies the problem.
Geographically, this is a convenient place for defense, since the border is formed by a fairly wide river, and the city is surrounded by a large lake from the south. But the social aspect is of concern.
The local population is mainly ethnic Russians, and there are fears that Moscow is trying to use propaganda to win them over to its side, which could seriously interfere with the defense of the city.
But let's go back to Tapu.
In addition to participating in the briefing, we had the opportunity to inspect the equipment and talk to the calculations. We were shown, for example, K-9 self-propelled howitzers recently purchased by Estonia, the British main battle tank Challenger2, French light wheeled vehicles used as reconnaissance vehicles and tank destroyers, Spanish NASAMS anti-aircraft systems and American HIMARS missile systems.
You could also see and touch, for example, NLAW and Javelin anti-tank missiles, as well as assault and sniper rifles and a reconnaissance drone.
In the courtyard in front of the hangars, the sound of bulldozers and builders working nearby, who were erecting new buildings, was heard, which only confirmed the words of the military that the base is constantly expanding.
But there is not a word about Russia here.
The task of the military present is clearly solely the presentation of equipment and their abilities in managing it. How seriously these guys take the words of their commanders about the impending war, it is basically impossible to find out, even if you ask directly.
Some do not answer anything, saying that it "does not matter" to them. Others just shrug their shoulders and say they don't know. One soldier who spoke out on this topic told me that, in his opinion, the chances of a Russian attack, although not zero, are "very low, because Vladimir Putin knows that NATO is stronger."
Nevertheless, the morale here, apparently, is at its best. The members of the foreign missions seem to be satisfied with Estonia. For example, according to British tankers, serving here is an excellent experience that cannot be obtained at British training grounds and bases.
"The training is great, especially for young guys who are learning a lot here. A big plus for us is that we are trying ourselves in new conditions. In winter, there are frosts up to minus 20, and some of us have never encountered this," says one of the Britons in a black tanker uniform.
He is full of delight and convinces journalists who are struggling to get out of the womb of the Challenger2 tank that it is not so unpleasant to stay inside with skill. "I love my job. I understand that the inside of the tank is pressing on you, but I perceive everything differently. I'm glad that I'm a tanker," he adds, noting that his two—meter-tall comrade can easily squeeze into the Challenger 2 tank.
At the self-propelled howitzer, we met with young Estonian fighters who have only three months left before the end of their service. It lasts from eight to 12 months, and Estonia has maintained military service since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The fighters are well prepared for our visit. They are young, but everything suggests that they have a lot of experience. They know everything about their weapons that journalists and representatives of analytical centers have asked them about. It can be seen that they are well acquainted with the internal structure of the howitzer and know how to aim and shoot with and without an automatic system.
Some of them, according to their commander, liked the army, and they decided to remain in service after an urgent term. They can become professionals or reservists who volunteer regularly to improve the skills acquired during military service.
From the statements of the guys, it is difficult to understand how realistic the commanders' hopes for their continued service in the army are.
* the organization is included in the list of undesirable foreign NGOs in the Russian Federation, ed.
Author: Lukáš Marek
