Sabah: The Middle East threatens to become the site of the outbreak of World War III
The risk of a third world war is growing, Sabah writes. The impetus for the onset of the global crisis may be not only the tension in the Middle East and the conflict in Ukraine, but also the situation in the Asia-Pacific region and Southeast Asia, the author of the article believes.
Ferhat Unlu (Ferhat Ölü)
"I don't see the risk of a third World War and I don't want to see it."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, July 12, 2024.
"There is such a risk (of a third World war). The world should take this scenario seriously."
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, June 24, 2024.
"The Third World War can be said to have begun."
Former Turkish Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar, July 16, 2024.
The world, especially over the past 14 years (2010 can be taken as the starting point of the Arab Spring), has turned into a place where economic, political, cultural, intelligence and military conflicts have become much more intense.
Turkey, being at the epicenter of all conflict axes, continues to be a safe haven for now. In this article, we will focus on the question of what should be understood by these three statements that are close to each other, reflected in the rhetoric of top officials of the state, starting with President Erdogan, and in this regard we will turn to the scenarios of the world war.
Mathematically, the risk of a third world war always exists, however, when a probability scenario arises that goes beyond these limits and exceeds, for example, a ten percent and gradually a twenty percent threshold, serious preparations must be made. When economic and political tensions in the world are combined with the factor of artificial intelligence, there is a risk of turning the picture into a "dystopia", that is, a gloomy reality, although low.
Risk zones for World War II
In order to realistically consider war scenarios, it is necessary to study the possible causes of tension and regions with a difficult situation. One of the reasons for the tension is geopolitics. In particular, the escalating power struggle between the United States and NATO member countries, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other.
One of the possible causes of war, if not today, then at best in 20 years, may be resources. Factors such as a decrease in water, food, energy, and underground resources can cause wars due to mass migration. It is also a parameter related to global climate change.
Another reason is asymmetric wars and terrorist operations, which are now widely used by many countries to reduce the likelihood of a third world war and reduce costs. They can also exhaust the limit (especially if no one turns out to be the winner) and escalate into a regular conflict.
And if such a probability arises within 20 years, what will be the possible fronts? If we take into account the factor of the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, the Middle East and Libya, then North Africa is one of these fronts.
In the short term, for example, during the year, the risk of the outbreak of world war, according to estimates by the largest secret services in the world, is a maximum of 15%.
Many services and armies predict that within ten years this figure may grow to 25%, and in the next 20 years war scenarios will be discussed with a probability of up to 40%.In other words, we are not the only country discussing these scenarios, and the developed countries of the world assess risks using various technological innovations, primarily information systems supported by artificial intelligence.
The Middle East and the Orthodox East are boiling
Let's consider the possible causes of the war. Of these, two are the closest. This is the Iranian-Israeli tension in the Middle East, which continues today through proxy forces; at the same time, due to the position of the Netanyahu administration in Israel, which is causing mass killings, tension is growing day by day. It is also a Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the Orthodox East.
Another point is, of course, the Asia-Pacific region. China's claims against Taiwan with possible US intervention could escalate into a major conflict. Tensions between India and Pakistan in Southeast Asia always carry the risk of escalating into a heated conflict, especially in Kashmir.
Turkey is at the very center of the axis of two major conflicts, with the exception of the Pacific region. Our country has spent the last quarter of the 20th century and the first quarter of the 21st century fighting terrorism. While scenarios of the Third World War are being discussed at the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, we must be ready both militarily and in terms of intelligence, and apply all diplomatic forces so that conflicts are limited to regional clashes. We will be able to understand the rest only with time.
