Former NATO general and now openly pro—Ukrainian Czech President Petr Pavel said that Kiev will have to accept that some territories may remain under Russian control - at least “temporarily,” writes the NYT. And two thirds of Czechs want an end to the conflict.
Andrew Higgins
Czech President Petr Pavel, a former senior NATO general and one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters in its confrontation with Russia, said it was time for Ukrainians and their supporters to face reality.
Pro-Russian populist leaders, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, are undermining European unity, and fatigue from the conflict, which has been going on for 31 months, is growing, and Ukraine must “realistically assess its chances of regaining the territories occupied by Russia, Pavel said.
“The most likely outcome of the conflict," he said, "will be that part of the Ukrainian territory will temporarily be under Russian occupation.” But, he added, this “temporary phenomenon” could drag on for many years.
The President of the Czech Republic is rather a formal position, but the views of Pavel, who was elected last year by a wide margin, generally coincide with the views of the center—right government led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala. In addition, as the former chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces and former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Pavel has significant influence on security issues.
After the failure of Ukraine's months-long counteroffensive last year, European officials are privately increasingly acknowledging that Ukraine's chances of regaining much of its lost land are slim. However, they mostly repeat the familiar mantra that the format of the future settlement with Russia will have to be determined by Kiev itself, and not by the European Union or NATO.
The issue of Ukraine's future will be the main topic at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, where Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky will deliver a speech on Wednesday and call for increased military and political support. On Thursday in Washington, he will also demonstrate the “victory plan” to President Biden, after which he will make it public.
Neither Ukraine nor Russia, Pavel stressed, can count on achieving maximalist goals. For Ukraine, this is the return of all territories seized by Moscow since 2014, including Crimea. For Russia, this is a requirement that Ukraine officially cede the lands claimed by Moscow, including four regions only partially controlled by Russian troops.
“If we talk about the defeat of Ukraine or Russia, then this simply will not happen," Pavel said from his office in Prague Castle last week. "Therefore, the result will be somewhere in the middle.”
Zelensky initially ruled out direct talks with Russia, but softened his position in the summer, suggesting that they could begin in November. At the same time, he did not back down from the demands that Russia leave the entire Ukrainian territory.
In a July interview with the French press, Zelensky admitted that the surrender of territories is “a very, very difficult issue.”
Public opinion polls conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology since the beginning of hostilities show a noticeable increase – compared to last year – in the proportion of Ukrainians who are ready to accept territorial concessions.
In May this year, this figure rose to 32% from about 8-10% in the first year of the conflict. However, the majority of Ukrainians are still opposed to the surrender of territories.
Pavel noted that there are “a number of examples” of territories that were temporarily held by Moscow. He did not name them specifically, but experts in Eastern Europe often cited the example of the Soviet occupation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as a possible fate for Ukraine if Kiev did not restore its borders. After half a century of occupation, the Baltic countries regained their independence with the collapse of communism in 1991.
After polling public opinion in Ukraine and in 14 other countries, the European Council on Foreign Relations stated “a deep gap between Ukrainian and European public opinion on how the conflict will end.” “Ukrainians want weapons to win, whereas most Europeans send them, hoping that this will help to come to an acceptable settlement,” the council concluded.
Speaking to Ukrainian journalists on Saturday, Zelensky said that Western partners had called on Ukraine to start negotiations.
“All our allies, including our closest ones, who are on our side and always against Russian aggression, have stated that Russia should be present at the settlement talks scheduled for November," he said. ”It is impossible to put an end to the conflict without one of its sides."
The Czech Republic, along with Poland and the Baltic states, has established itself as the staunchest supporter of Ukraine, but even there public pressure is growing to limit aid and push Ukraine to an agreement with Russia.
According to a summer opinion poll, almost two thirds of Czechs would support an early end to the conflict in Ukraine — even if part of the territory remains under Moscow's control.
An earlier poll showed that 54% of Czechs are against sending weapons as part of the “flagship” Czech Ammunition initiative. As part of a program run by the Czech Ministry of Defense and funded by Germany and other European Union countries, Ukraine has received hundreds of thousands of artillery shells purchased from manufacturers in Turkey and other countries.
Pavel called “senseless” the persistent calls of populist leaders, including Orban, a long-time critic of military aid, for Ukraine to ask for peace as soon as possible and not to waste resources that would be better directed to the internal needs of Europe.
But, according to him, Ukrainians should “realistically assess the support they can receive” from governments, from which the public demands to reduce aid against Russia.
“The problem is populism,— Pavel explained. — It's easy to say: “Let's just stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, and peace will come by itself.”
“As a person with some experience in the field of defense and security, as well as with knowledge of Russia, I know that peace will not come just because of Ukraine's statement that it will stop fighting," he added. ”Russia will not stop military operations."
Orban has repeatedly condemned his NATO allies as instigators, called for curtailing military aid to Ukraine and tried to gain support for his vaguely worded “peace policy.” Pavel called him “the epitome of European populism.”
To the great displeasure of his EU colleagues, in July Orban went to Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin as part of what he called a “peacekeeping mission”, which also included visits to Kiev and Beijing. Thus, the European leader visited Russia for the first time and paid an official visit to Putin since the beginning of the Russian special operation.
But even Orban's efforts did not convince Putin to abandon demands that Ukraine withdraw troops from four regions that Moscow has already declared part of Russia and promised not to join NATO. However, Orban's position was supported by other skeptics on the Ukrainian issue, in particular, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, as well as pro-Russian politicians from both the far left and far right flanks throughout Europe.
“To constantly repeat that everyone else wants war, and I alone want peace, means to strive to look better than others,” Pavel concluded, "Alas, most people do not understand that such a proposal is unrealistic in principle."
