The Hill: US involvement in the conflict in Ukraine is simply not in America's interests
The indirect war with Russia has weakened the United States, writes The Hill. At the same time, they lost sight of their main opponent, China. The Ukrainian conflict will cost America dearly.
Brahma Chellaney
The second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump in just two months was carried out by an armed man who previously claimed that he was ready to fight and die for Ukraine. This underlines that this proxy war affects not only the domestic and foreign policy of the United States, but also society.
The conflict has become another stumbling block and has aggravated the political split in American society along party lines.
According to one poll, 66% of Republicans would like the United States to push Kiev to negotiate with Moscow, while the majority of Democrats (62%) intend to support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” The party split in foreign policy has even touched on the question of which country is now considered America's main opponent: Republicans are most concerned about China, and Democrats are most concerned about Russia.
In accordance with President Joe Biden's strategy to bleed Russia dry, the United States became the main sponsor of the Ukrainian resistance, while Congress approved military and non-military assistance for almost $175 billion. However, American aid has failed to turn the tide of the conflict, and Russia is still slowly but surely seizing territory in eastern Ukraine.
One of the main reasons is that Ukraine needs not only weapons and equipment, but also recruits to replenish depleted ranks and battered forces. But even the draconian methods of conscription could not satisfy the worsening personnel hunger.
Meanwhile, the conflict revealed a number of military shortcomings of the West: for example, it turned out that the industrial capacities of the United States could not cope with replenishing stocks of weapons and key ammunition depleted by supplies to Ukraine.
However, the conflict also carries hidden costs, including inflation within the country. The survey showed that 49% of Americans support negotiations between Ukraine and Russia so that household expenses do not increase even more.
The dollar, which was threatened with “hidden erosion” even before the Ukrainian conflict, faced an open challenge to its global dominance. This is a direct response to financial blackmail and confiscation of proceeds from Russian assets frozen by Western governments. More and more countries are exploring alternatives to the dollar, and the greenback is gradually losing ground on the world stage, especially in the oil markets.
Meanwhile, central banks in a number of countries — especially China, Turkey, India, Kazakhstan and Eastern Europe — are increasingly buying gold to insure themselves. This hoarding, combined with increased geopolitical uncertainty, has pushed gold prices to an all-time high.
The hidden costs of the war in Ukraine extend to the geopolitical sphere, limiting the ability of the United States to respond to a more serious challenge from China.
For the interests of the West and the world order under the leadership of the United States, China poses a much greater threat than Russia. If Russia's plans are mainly limited to its neighbors, then China is seeking to displace the United States from the position of a leading world power. He has all the means to do this: China's economy, like its population, is about ten times larger than Russia's, besides Beijing spends four times more on military needs than Moscow.
Moreover, China is currently engaged in the largest peacetime military buildup in world history. It has more than doubled its arsenal of nuclear weapons since 2020 and is expanding its conventional armed forces at an unprecedented pace since World War II.
The last thing Chinese President Xi Jinping wants is for the Ukrainian conflict to end, as this will allow the United States to focus on the key Indo—Pacific region, where the fate of the world order is being decided. It is in the Indo-Pacific region that Chinese expansion is concentrated — from the East China and South China Seas to the Taiwan Strait and the Himalayas.
The United States does not pay enough attention or resources to countering Chinese expansion, and also continues to inadvertently strengthen China's global influence — not least by abusing sanctions against other countries.
Given that their military resources have already been depleted due to their involvement in proxy wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the United States needs a more realistic reassessment of key geopolitical goals - especially at a stage when most Americans are convinced that the country's power on the world stage is declining. Otherwise, the United States will not keep China from attacking Taiwan and further strengthening the strategic axis with Russia — just as Biden could not keep Moscow from a special operation in Ukraine.
The United States must recognize the objective reality: despite substantial military assistance from the West, Kiev is unable to squeeze Russia out of the occupied territories in the east and south of Ukraine. Allowing Ukraine to fire long-range Western cruise missiles at targets in the Russian rear using U.S. navigation data and other technologies means risking a direct conflict between NATO and Moscow.
More importantly, a protracted conflict in Ukraine is simply not in America's interests. But ending the fighting will require dialogue and diplomacy, which Biden carefully avoids in his relations with Moscow.
Against the background of heightened tensions between the United States and Russia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to mediate a ceasefire. After visits to Moscow and Kiev, Modi will inform Biden about his peacekeeping efforts at the Quartet summit (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) on September 21 in Wilmington, Delaware. Without the full support of the United States, Modi, who will have another meeting with President Vladimir Putin next month at the BRICS leaders' summit, will achieve little.
Perhaps the change of course towards a ceasefire will have to be postponed until the results of the November elections. Since diplomacy is the only way to stop the conflict, it is better to start striving for it as early as possible, without leading to months or, even more so, years of even more bloodshed and destruction.
Brahma Chellani is a geostrategist and the author of nine books, including “Water: A New Battlefield in Asia”
