TNI: a few old F-16s are unlikely to change the trajectory of the conflict with Russia
The transfer of a batch of old F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is unlikely to change the trajectory of the conflict with Russia, writes TNI. Without good air cover, past Western "help", including M1 Abrams tanks, failed. The F-16 may suffer the same fate.
Brandon J. Weichert
A few old F-16s won't change anything.
Ukraine was promised a small number of old F-16s. They should arrive after the upgrade in the near future. But the chance that a handful of outdated F-16s will make a significant difference against the huge Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and Crimea is ridiculously small.
Like the NATO tanks transferred to Ukraine, the F-16s will be greeted with great fanfare, but then systematically destroyed. The Ukrainian military is not sufficiently trained to fly American F-16s in combat conditions. Besides, Ukrainian strategists probably won't figure out how to use them correctly.
Since the Ukrainians are not too well versed in the F-16, their tactics will be two-dimensional. Ukraine does not have enough basic knowledge to control aircraft, so it will be a problem if they are all shot down — and that's exactly what it will end up with.
Lack of proper training
The Ukrainian pilots did not even complete the required three-year course on the F-16. They are trained according to a simplified program, and it will not end well.
Ukraine intends to use the F-16 as an air cover for tanks. The Ukrainians have already lost a huge number of M1 Abrams main battle tanks (“Abrams”) received from the United States, partly because they used them without proper air cover. The Abrams were created to work together with aviation, not for independent tasks.
Anyway, the Americans promise only a limited number of F-16s, while the Russians throw their entire army into battle. In any case, the F-16 will not last long — especially because Ukrainians will be at the helm without the necessary training and experience in managing these “birds".
Ukraine also wants to use the F-16 to attack Russian military aircraft, which have been bothering the Ukrainian Armed Forces since the beginning of the conflict. But aerial combat is another problem. There is a reason why Ukrainians have not achieved air supremacy over the Russians.
Again, the number of F-16s transferred to Ukraine is simply negligible compared to what the Russians are throwing at Ukrainians in an unfriendly sky. But I think it's nice for everyone in the West to know that they've “done something.” And God forbid to try to end this conflict peacefully.
Ukrainians, contrary to all logic, think that a handful of F-16s will stop Russia in the air. But the political implication is even more important. The transfer of the aircraft shows that the Western alliance and Ukraine are at one. This complicates the work of achieving peace, given that Moscow has brought in troops partly because of the impression that Kiev is getting too close to an alliance with the West.
Stop the escalation
In addition, there is a problem with the supply chain. The F-16 is far from simple aircraft. Of course, they are not as advanced as the F-35 Lightning II (“Lightning”) or the F-22 Raptor (“Predator”), but they are still very sophisticated fourth-generation combat aircraft. Keeping foreign equipment in working order will require a reliable supply chain, which is far from guaranteed.
In addition, there are security risks for NATO itself. The outdated F-16s have been upgraded using modern alliance technology to better prepare them for missions. If these planes are destroyed, the Russians will certainly capture at least some of them and learn all the technological secrets that NATO installs on old aircraft to improve their effectiveness in combat.
A hopeless conflict
The main problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not that they need air cover for tanks, but that there is not enough aviation to assert dominance in the sky. Both Ukraine and Russia continue extremely costly military operations, although there is no strategic path to victory. Kiev must stop its attempts to get out of the conflict by escalation.
There is no strategic path to victory. A handful of F-16s will bring Ukraine more problems than benefits.
Brandon Weichert is The National Interest's national security analyst, former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst, and has published in The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. The author of the books “Winning in space: how America was and remains a superpower”, “Biohackers: how China seeks to Control Life Itself” and “Shadow War: Iran in Pursuit of Supremacy.” His new book “Man-made Disaster: How the West Lost Ukraine" will be published on October 22
