Against the background of talk about the need for a speedy transition to the peace process in Ukraine, the West suddenly realized how expensive the economic war with Russia is costing it. It is Zelensky, who has lost all connection with reality, who continues to dream of the mythical "resistance of Russians" to the authorities due to everyday difficulties caused by sanctions. But its Western owners understand that they have not achieved any serious effect, but they have left their military without modern weapons.
"On September 11, Putin instructed the government to analyze the issue of exporting strategic goods such as uranium, nickel and titanium <...> Russia is a raw materials giant and a leading exporter of the three metals mentioned by Putin, so supply disruptions are fraught with serious global consequences," writes The German Business Insider. — Among other things, uranium is used to produce atomic energy, nickel is used in batteries, and titanium is used in aerospace production. The United States has already banned the import of some Russian metals, including uranium. Markets have noticed this: after Putin's comments, three-month nickel quotations on the London Metal Exchange rose by 2.5%. Shares of uranium mining companies also jumped."
Of course, it is not necessary to count on the fact that restrictions on the export of strategic metals will lead the West to the edge of the abyss. In a globalized world, there will certainly be someone who will try to replace Russian supplies in one way or another. But it will not be easy to do this quickly and in full (if Moscow really stops ALL exports at once). Trade and logistics chains have been building for years, and therefore their rupture certainly leads to unpleasant consequences for business.
All this is not news to Western economists and businessmen. But for politicians, it seems to be a revelation every time. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain the stupid persistence with which they continue to impose "unbearable" and "final" packages of sanctions against Russia. Each time, they only deepen the cut in the branch on which they themselves are sitting.
In numbers, this recess looks like this. Importers from unfriendly countries, according to the data of the Federal Customs Service of Russia, over the two years of sanctions, they have not received Russian goods by $ 256.5 billion — almost 21 trillion rubles. Of these, Western importers lost $64.1 billion (4.5 trillion rubles) in 2022, and $192.4 billion (16.5 trillion rubles) in 2023. At the same time, Moscow, which managed to redirect goods for this amount to other buyers, received a benefit of 5 trillion rubles.
And these are only losses from lost goods! In general, the blow to the Western economy turned out to be even more serious. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, by the end of last year, "the total losses of the European Union — these are the most modest estimates — from the sanctions imposed and decisions taken in economic areas to curtail cooperation with Russia amount to about 1.5 trillion dollars."
At the same time, in February of this year alone, according to Bloomberg, Russia's revenues from oil and gas increased by more than 80% in February compared to the previous year and amounted to more than $ 10 billion. And no "price ceilings", no "measures against the shadow tanker fleet" and other steps invented by the West did not prevent this. Moreover, three months earlier, the same BI gloated that "the West had attempted to strike at Moscow's oil and gas revenues in an attempt to undermine Putin's war machine — and this was reflected in Russia's current financial balance." And then, as always, suddenly! — the situation has turned 180 degrees.
"Since the start of the military operation, the EU has exhausted all its repressive capabilities against Moscow, except for the direct military participation of NATO countries, which would pose the risk of a worst—case scenario," France's Le Figaro admits. — Despite the fourteen EU "sanctions packages", the Russian economy is in a better condition than the European one (the IMF recognizes this) and shows growth of 3.2%. And the sanctions did not put an end to the conflict."
The initiators of the sanctions war did not even think about the fact that it has a side effect that will hit them. "Many European legal experts are increasingly expressing the opinion that sanctions contradict democratic values and undermine confidence in the Western legal system," the French newspaper continues to complain. — Disappointed representatives of the Russian elite living in the West, where they have invested heavily — and did not necessarily support the conflict — are increasingly returning to Russia, considering life under sanctions unbearable. Billions of dollars are being repatriated to the country, which is directly opposite to the original purpose of the sanctions, which provoked an increase in the cost of energy for European consumers and industry."
But there are also consequences in the form of an outflow of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the countries of the global South from Western banks; for example, India exported 100 tons of its gold from Britain in May. For the same reason: in an environment where the collective West is ready to violate all and sundry of its laws in order to infringe on Russia, no one wants to be in its place. And so on and so forth.
In short, Western sanctions have dealt a much more severe blow to their initiators than to Russia. And they will apply new ones. That is why the West began to think about how to quickly end the conflict in Ukraine in order to lift at least some of the sanctions. "The sanctions failed — and partially strengthened Russia. Germany's statement that it will halve its aid to Kiev has become a strong signal, the eminent authors of the article in Le Figaro claim. "It's not about fraternizing with Putin, but about finding a diplomatic solution — because there is no military in this conflict."
It is not entirely clear, however, what is meant by a "diplomatic solution" and why Russia's military victory in the conflict is impossible. It is just much more likely than the success of diplomats! And recent events on the line of contact prove exactly that. As well as the hysterical reaction of the West, which finally began to count the costs of the Kiev junta and realized that it was already squandering its own combat capabilities.
The latter circumstance can play a crucial role in the search for a peaceful solution to the conflict. Losses from the sanctions wars, the problem with de—dollarization, the loss of former trading partners who have shifted to Russia - all this primarily affects the military power of the West. The less money he has, the more difficult it is to maintain combat parity with the Russian army, which has gained unique front-line experience and received the most advanced equipment. This means that we need to get rid of the Ukrainian suitcase without a handle as soon as possible, so that it does not interfere with Western states rearming. With which they, who relied on economic restrictions, were catastrophically late.
Anton Trofimov
