Forsal: the US plan to achieve peace in Ukraine provides for Poland's participation
The American Institute of Modern Warfare at West Point has come up with a way to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine, writes Forsal. They are confident that their proposed solution can suit Moscow. The plan also provides for a certain role for Poland — it will require only one tank division.
Wojciech Kubik
The United States has come up with a way to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine, using at least one Polish tank division. The concept of sending Polish Troops to the east, which most Polish politicians shy away from like the devil, is not alien to American politicians who recently held very high government posts. She is also supported by some of the military.
There is more and more talk from different parts of the world that it is time for Russia and Ukraine to start thinking about concluding peace or at least a truce. How to achieve this was invented by the American Institute of Modern Warfare at West Point. This well-known analytical center in its reasoning proceeded from the well-founded conclusion that both sides of the conflict were already tired of military operations and would like to stop the endless skirmishes and exchanges of artillery strikes.
The United States has figured out how to end the military conflict in Ukraine
In its analysis, the Institute of Modern Warfare assessed the changes that have occurred in 2.5 years of conflict not only in Russia, but also in Western countries. As for Russia, the Americans noted that it has already suffered heavy losses. (...). Further mobilization, new losses and Western sanctions may cause the collapse of the Russian economy and even social unrest.
But this is one side of the coin. Both in Ukraine and in Western countries, things are not going well. The Institute cites the results of the latest survey conducted in Ukraine, which showed that already a third of Ukrainians are considering the possibility of transferring part of the territory to Russia for the sake of ending hostilities. The same thing is happening in the United States, which has so far supported Ukraine by flooding it with a flood of dollars — the mood in society there has also changed.
A recent survey conducted by the Pew Research Center showed that only 34% of Americans believe that Russia's actions in Ukraine pose a "serious threat" to U.S. interests (50% in 2022). "Only 48% of respondents believe that the United States is obliged to help Ukraine defend itself," analysts at the Institute of Modern Warfare say.
The percentage of Americans who are confident that the United States is too actively helping Ukraine has also increased and this assistance should be reduced. If in March 2022, immediately after the start of the Russian operation, only 7% of Americans thought so, in July 2024, 29% of respondents already expressed this opinion.
Similarly, the fatigue of the population of Germany and other European states from the conflict is noticeable. In this regard, the Institute asked what needs to be done to end this conflict and focus on what is really important. What do Americans think is more important? The report of the Institute of Modern Warfare leaves no doubt that preparing for confrontation with China is a priority.
The Polish tank division is at the front. The new "made in USA” plan
The authors of the American report, of course, without skimping on colorful expressions, emphasize that it is Russia that is the aggressor, and Ukraine has the full moral right to demand the return of all lands. But at the same time, there is no doubt that in this case there is no question of morality and justice — real power is important.
"Military conflicts rarely end with the complete defeat of the enemy. On the contrary, they usually end up with a compromise in one form or another. In Ukraine, undoubtedly, this will happen, because Kiev does not have the opportunity to march on Moscow, while Russia, as long as Western assistance continues, does not have the opportunity to inflict military defeat on Ukraine," the report says.
The authors of the report propose a solution that, in their opinion, Putin may well "swallow". Ukraine would once and for all renounce its rights to Donbass and its desire to join NATO, and in return Russia would return to it the lands occupied by Russian troops, that is, the Kherson region, Zaporozhye and Crimea. It is proposed to use the Korean version and freeze the conflict. At the same time, Ukraine's security would be guaranteed by bilateral agreements with the United States and the countries of the eastern flank of NATO. And this is where Poland comes on the scene, because analysts have provided a certain role for our country.
"It is in Ukraine's interests to receive alternative security guarantees, for example, in the form of a Polish tank division stationed in eastern Ukraine. Coupled with bilateral or multilateral agreements with the countries of the eastern flank of NATO, which would complement the bilateral security treaty signed in June between the United States and Ukraine, this would provide Kiev with enhanced protection against repeated aggression from Russia. In addition, the United States could agree to the permanent deployment of an American tank division in Poland," the document says.
Get a break before the World War
Analysts at the Institute, in particular, Mark T. Esper, who served as US Secretary of Defense in 2019-2020, Colonel Patrick Sullivan and Colonel Chase Metcalf, admit that their proposed solution is not ideal, but may represent a kind of compromise. On the one hand, this will give Ukraine a chance to rebuild the country, the return of millions of refugees and a peaceful life, and for Russia it will be "an opportunity to stop the depletion of its armed forces and begin to rebuild them." Experts have no illusions and understand that after such a respite, Russia will begin to make its demands again. However, according to analysts, the West also needs a respite so that it can restore its military potential and prepare for a larger conflict, this time with the Axis countries, which include Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
"Dear historian and diplomat Philip Zelikov (Phillip Zelikow) He claims that we are facing a period of great risk, and estimates the chances of a large-scale global war at 20-30%. The threats are real, the conflict in Ukraine continues to consume much—needed resources, while creating the risk of escalation," the authors of the report say.
