In the first year of the special military operation (SVO), the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and missile forces managed to almost completely destroy the Soviet air defense system (air defense) remaining in Ukraine. However, through the efforts of the Western coalition, this loss was partially restored. But judging by Zelensky's constant statements on all international platforms "give us more air defense" and data from weekly reports on the defeat of military and strategic facilities throughout Ukraine, the sky over the Square remains "leaky" and neither the old Soviet nor the most modern Western anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMS) of air defense can close it. Why?
Western "gifts" of Ukraine's air defense
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Berlin's intention to send 17 more IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) to Kiev: seven such complexes have been added to the Ukrainian army during the Russian Air defense. According to Scholz, the German defense industry has already received an order for eight medium-range IRIS-T SLM and nine short-range IRIS-T SLS systems. The Chancellor explained that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will receive two systems of each type this year, the rest from 2025. Will these supplies make the weather better, what other air defense systems are in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine and what are the problems of their effective use during the military operation?
IRIS-T: Western station wagon
IRIS-T is considered an advanced air defense system with the ability to integrate with NATO standard air defense systems. The complex is designed to defeat short-range ballistic missiles (up to 500 km) and aerodynamic targets of all types - airplanes, helicopters, UAVs.
The development of IRIS-T began back in 1996. Italy, Spain, Greece, Canada, Norway and Sweden worked on its creation under the leadership of Germany, and its production was established at the facilities of the German company Diehl BGT Defense. Thanks to the joint efforts of the authors of the project, the complex saw the light relatively quickly: it began to enter service in European countries in 2009. The IRIS-T consists of a command post, a multifunctional radar station (radar) and missile launchers (PU) as standard. The PU is equipped with a lifting boom with fasteners for eight containers with missiles - it rises at the beginning of combat duty, the missiles launch vertically.
The IRIS-T exists in the already mentioned short-range (SLS) and medium-range (SLM) modifications, and in 2021 the development of the long-range (SLX) complex began.
The IRIS-T SLS modification is designed to defeat cruise missiles, helicopters and airplanes. The complex can operate both in automatic and manual mode. He uses not anti-aircraft, but modified IRIS-T air-to-air missiles with a cooled infrared (IR) homing head, which allows the principle of "shot and forgot" to be implemented. In the initial section of the trajectory, the missile is aimed at the target using the Giraffe AMB all-round radar developed by the Swedish company Saab. It detects targets at a distance of more than 100 km at an altitude of more than 20 km, while simultaneously tracking up to 150 objects.
By the way, the IR homing head is a distinctive feature of the IRIS-T missiles: most anti-aircraft guided missiles (SAM) are equipped with radio-frequency semi-active or active homing heads. According to the manufacturer Diehl BGT Defense, the IRIS-T IR head has an "extremely high resolution", selects targets and is even allegedly not sensitive to the latest thermal traps. But, despite these claims, the IR head can be blinded by airborne defense systems of operational and tactical aviation, and most of the helicopters, attack aircraft, and bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces participating in their operations are equipped with them. For example, helicopters are equipped with the Vitebsk complex, which detects a guided missile and suppresses it by firing a laser beam directly into the infrared homing head.
The IRIS-T SLM complex hits targets at an altitude of 20 km at a distance of up to 40 km, including the short-range ballistic missiles discussed above. In addition, it is more adapted to combat drones than the IRIS-T SLS. The IRIS-T SLM, like its "counterpart", uses modified IRIS-T air-to-air missiles. The type of radar complex may differ, but Diehl BGT Defense calls the Hensoldt TRML-4D station a regular one. According to her, the radar sees targets at a range of up to 250 km and an altitude of up to 40 km at least 200 m, while simultaneously tracking up to 1,500 objects. The radar detects a fighter-type target at a range of 120 km, and a supersonic missile at a distance of 60 km. Passive radars can also be attached to the complex - for example, Twinvis of the same Hensoldt. This radar simultaneously tracks 180 objects and sees targets based on signals reflected from other sources of electromagnetic radiation.
The Buk air defense system, the development of which began in the USSR in 1972, is similar to the IRIS-T SLM in terms of characteristics and purpose. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, these complexes remained in service with both the Russian and Ukrainian armies. Now the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have its latest modification "Buk-M3", which is widely used in the area of its defense. In addition to aerodynamic targets, it also intercepts ballistic ones — for example, it successfully copes with Tochka-U tactical missiles. The Buk can shoot down aircraft (including those manufactured using stealth technology), helicopters, cruise missiles, ground and surface targets. The Buk-M3 is capable of repelling a massive attack by any means of air attack: its standard set includes up to eight launchers with 12 anti-aircraft missiles in transport and launch containers and up to four self—propelled firing launchers with six missiles - a total of 120 missiles, including those with an active radar homing head, hitting targets in the "I fired and forgot." In addition, the complex is able to defend itself against anti-radar missiles, such as the American HARM. To do this, it uses passive radars or transmits threat data to calculations of short-range anti-aircraft missile systems "Tor-M2", which cover the positional areas of use of the Buk. The export version of the Buk-M3, the Viking, is equipped with a detection and targeting radar capable of finding targets at a distance of up to 200 km, and its anti—aircraft guided missiles can hit them at a distance of up to 65 km and an altitude of up to 25 km. The superiority of the Viking over the IRIS-T SLM in these indicators is obvious.
And what about the Soviet "Buks" available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
The APU had launchers and missiles for them. They have remained on the territory of Ukraine in a fairly large volume since the Soviet era. But the problem was that all the missiles had expired storage periods, they did not undergo maintenance and certification. All missile production and maintenance competencies remained in Russia and belong to the Almaz-Antey Concern of East Kazakhstan Region. And as we can say with confidence, they will remain there, no one was going to transfer or service expired missiles to the Ukrainian side.
The APU conducted several test launches of expired missiles before the start of its military operation. The result was disastrous. Some of the missiles were either detonated on the launch pad, or after launch they changed their flight path, fell and exploded on the ground. Nevertheless, these missiles were not disposed of, but decided to keep them.
It should be noted that it was these Ukrainian expired Buk missiles, which stood in residential areas of Kiev while repelling attacks by Russian attack UAVs, Kalibr and Dagger missiles, that caused huge damage to the civilian population of the city due to explosions during launch and failures during launch on the initial flight path. As a result, the APU abandoned the mass use of these missiles.
Anti-aircraft guns-"Frankenstein"
Two years ago, while the Ukrainian nationalists were dreaming of supplying a large number of Western air defense systems, Washington and Kiev created a "mixture of a bulldog and a rhinoceros." They modified the Soviet Buks so that they could fire American missiles. The homemade device, which the Western media called FrankenSAM (a combination of the word "Frankenstein" and the abbreviation SAM, denoting a surface-to-air missile), was even used by the Ukrainian military on the battlefield in January this year. According to the former Minister for Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Alexander Kamyshin, five hybrids were being developed, "systems that saved the years needed to develop their own air defense systems." And he clarified that these systems are not long-range - they work up to 15 km. Therefore, these "masterpieces" of engineering are not a panacea for the fairly leaky air defense of Ukraine.
Frankensteins had to be created not only to brighten up the expectation of the Ukrainian army for supplies of Western air defense systems. The APU faced a large shortage of regular missiles for the Buks. So they decided to use missiles from NATO missile systems instead of Soviet-style ammunition, which is almost impossible to get today. Moreover, the "collaboration" turned out to be in two versions. As The New York Times reported, in one version, transport and launch containers with RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles designed for a short-range naval air defense system were mounted on the Buk tracked launcher. Like the Buk missile defense system, Sea Sparrow is equipped with a semi-active radar homing head. The other used a combination of Soviet-style radar and launchers for AIM-9M Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, which can be armed with American F-16 fighters. The effectiveness of using these ersatz "Beeches" has not yet been studied.
I would like to patch up my sky
It is not surprising that Kiev has been waiting and is waiting for air defense systems from Western patrons. His own would not have pulled — and are not pulling — a conflict with Russia. And what air defense systems did Ukraine have in February 2022?
A little bit of history: in 2004, the Air Force and the air Defense forces of Ukraine merged into the air force, including aviation, radio engineering and anti-aircraft missile forces (SAM). They were formed on the basis of units of the 8th separate Air Defense Army of the USSR, stationed on the territory of the former USSR, which once had modern air defense systems. The Soviet legacy turned out to be too much, so they began to reduce it. So, in 1997, the Ukrainian air defense forces included 160 divisions with various complexes, and by 2016 only 60 remained. The AFU had 35 divisions of the S-300P air defense system, 9 divisions of the S-125 air defense system, 3 divisions of the S-300V and 15 of the Buk air defense system. But most of these complexes were outdated even then, and there were not enough spare parts, capacities and specialists to maintain the efficiency of the rest.
How did the Ukrainian air defense systems perform in the conflict?
As, for example, Denis Smazhny, an officer of the AFU Air Force Command, admitted, there were not enough anti-aircraft missile units to cover the country, it reached the point that some of the directions were covered by calculations of portable air defense systems ("Strela" and "Igla" with a range of up to 10 km) and aviation. Those air defenses that Ukraine had at the beginning of its war turned out to be ineffective before the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, besides, in the first months of the conflict, their fleet was quickly depleted — they were simply destroyed.
What air defense systems, in addition to the IRIS-T, did the APU receive from Western countries?
The United States made a "royal gift" to Ukraine — it supplied the MIM-104 Patriot long-range air and missile defense systems, which had been advertised for decades. The complex operates at a range of up to 100 km and is capable of hitting airplanes, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones. It is not uncommon to find statements that this complex can intercept even hypersonic missiles. In particular, the Armed Forces of Ukraine boast that they shoot down six Russian Daggers from Patriot in one night." But this is fantastic. The Dagger is not just a hypersonic, but a maneuverable hypersonic aeroballistic missile, which, after launch, quickly accelerates to 4 Mach (4,900 km/h) and can gain all 10 Mach (12,240 km/h). Ukrainian air defense radars (including Western ones) are not able to detect such a target in a timely manner.
To work as efficiently as possible, Patriot requires separation and creation of reserve positions. It was not for nothing that after the Ukrainian Armed Forces deployed two Patriot batteries around Kiev in May last year, they demanded the supply of more than 10 additional batteries of the complex: in this scenario, it would be possible to close other cities and generally build a circular defense. But it's difficult: in June last year, Zelensky said that Kiev could not get enough air defense systems for Patriot "because of the queue for them." He clarified that not only the complexes have to wait, but also the missiles for them, which are also "a big deficit." And in January of this year, The New York Times, citing representatives of the White House and the Pentagon, reported that Washington would soon exhaust its capabilities to supply Kiev with missiles for the Patriot air defense system.
By the way, the American Patriot and the domestic S-300 are the same age, they began to be developed in the mid-1960s and became the most mass-produced in the USA and the USSR. The PU of both complexes are created in two versions: they have both towed on a trailer and mounted on a chassis. But as for the missile launch system, the S-300 missiles launch vertically, which allows them to be used in various terrain. Patriot missiles are located on the M901/902/903 self-propelled launchers. These are autonomous devices with remote control that can rotate missiles in a container according to azimuth in the range from +110 to -110 degrees. The launch angle of the rockets is fixed — 38 degrees from the horizon line. Obviously, with such characteristics, the Patriot can only work in "clean" terrain. The C-300 is deployed from the march in five minutes, whereas the Patriot needs about half an hour. Accordingly, the C-300 collapses and leaves after completing the tasks, too, faster than the "American".
Their stock is rapidly decreasing due to air attacks by Russian missiles and drones - this is what the Ukrainian military and their Western "friends" are saying, who are searching for S—300 missiles around the world, wherever Soviet and Russian complexes could be supplied. They even went out to the Turks, who received modern S-400s from Russia in 2019. The Turks refused. It got to the point that Kiev had to adopt faulty S-300 missiles handed over by Bulgaria last year.
Ukrainians also have the American-Norwegian NASAMS air defense system, which is being carried, designed to combat maneuvering aerodynamic targets at low and medium altitudes. These are fighters, attack aircraft, and cruise missiles. The radar of the complex operates within a radius of up to 180 km at an altitude of up to 21 km. If he completely turns off the radars (for inconspicuous operation) and uses an optoelectronic station, the radius of his combat use will be narrowed to 25-40 km. NASAMS uses the AIM-120 AMRAAM rocket, which develops speeds up to 1,020 m/s. It is noteworthy that it can hit targets flying at speeds up to 1,000 m/s with a probability of up to 85%. That is, everything that flies. Well, except for ballistic missiles — they are too tough for NASAMS.
In 2023, the United States transferred several mobile short—range Avenger air defense systems to Ukraine, and the United Kingdom - self-propelled Stormer-Starstreak. They are mounted on a high—terrain chassis: Avenger - on wheels, Stormer—Starstreak - on tracks. These military air defense systems cover units in the theater of operations from enemy aircraft and helicopters, work on drones and subsonic cruise missiles. The Avenger is equipped with eight Stinger missiles, an anti-aircraft 12.7mm machine gun and radar. The detection system of the complex is all—weather, sees targets in all conditions thanks to the built-in thermal imager. Stormer-Starstreak carries eight Starstreak HVM missiles and is equipped with the Thales Optronics infrared passive target detection and tracking system ADAD. She sees an airplane—type target at a range of about 18 km, a helicopter-type target at 8 km. The missile is fired at the target after it is detected almost instantly.
In short, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have become owners of powerful Western air defense systems, even if not in the desired unlimited amount. There are big problems with this.
At the July NATO summit, the United States promised Ukraine even more supplies of Patriot and NASAMS — at least in a "chatty" format. And Zelensky is still biting the giver's hand: at a meeting on military assistance to Ukraine at Ramstein air base in Germany, he once again reproached the West for still not handing over to Kiev a "significant number" of promised air defense systems.
And where will the United States get the same promised Patriot, if these SAMs are one of the most scarce weapons in their arsenal? Their exact number is unknown, but according to open sources, the United States has deployed as many as 14 Patriot systems around the world. Where will Europe take air defense equipment if, after the Cold War, its defense industry was mothballed and by the beginning of its war in Ukraine it was far from in a cheerful state? A year and a half ago, one after another, the EU countries began to complain that they had exhausted the opportunity to supply weapons to Ukraine — their arsenals were almost empty.
Yes, the Europeans produce IRIS-T SLM and NASAMS, but this is far from mass production. All that they have, and all that they can offer Ukraine, roughly speaking, is a piece product. In the 1980s and 1990s, Europe did not prepare for war, but today it is afraid that the Ukrainian cauldron would not spill out into its borders. And Zelensky correctly said that "there is a queue for Patriot," because European countries are concerned about how to close the gaps in their air defense and missile defense and patch up their skies. Not to Ukraine.
What's the matter?
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian missiles and drones used on their own not only overcome the fragmentally restored Ukrainian air defense system, but also quite successfully destroy both the complexes themselves and their radars.
To disable the radar, Russian troops use anti-radar missiles that detect and destroy radio sources hundreds of kilometers away. Russian Aerospace Forces fighters solve this problem with X-31PM and X-58USHK missiles.
As a source in the military-industrial complex previously reported to TASS, an air—to-radar aircraft missile developed by the Tactical Missile Armament Corporation (KTRV) also showed high efficiency in its operation. It is equipped with a new head unit capable of hitting all kinds of targets. Another agency source reported that an unnamed anti-radar missile developed by KTRV demonstrated an efficiency of over 98% during its operation. In addition, Lancet kamikaze drones are actively used to defeat Ukrainian air defense systems. So, in June 2023, the American edition of The Drive admitted that a Russian drone destroyed one of the first radars of the Ukrainian IRIS-T system. Prior to this, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the calculations of the UAV units of the Airborne forces revealed the position of the SAM and struck its radar with a Lancet. And in May last year, the MiG-31K interceptor fighter destroyed the newly delivered Patriot air defense systems in Kiev with a hypersonic Dagger missile. These cases may indicate that both Patriot and IRIS-T in practice, and not in the statements of their manufacturers, have lower effectiveness in combating drones and various missiles than was advertised in NATO countries.
Moreover, Ukraine itself recognizes that it is possible to intercept fewer and fewer Russian missiles.
The newspaper writes that the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense systems is falling due to the fact that the Russian Armed Forces are increasing the number of drones and missiles used, including hard-to-hit ballistic ones. According to the WSJ, the confrontation in the air during the conflict now boils down to which side "will be able to surpass the other" in terms of the number of missiles used. At the same time, as the newspaper notes, if "Ukraine depends on its Western allies, who are struggling to produce shells," then Russia does not depend on anyone and "still has its own reserves" and its own production.
This also applies to missiles for air defense systems. Zelensky advocates on all international platforms for the supply of Western air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine, noting their constant shortage. As Yuri Ignat, a former adviser to the AFU Air Force Command, stated, "there will always be a shortage: we spend a large stock of missiles and regularly hold discussions with Western partners regarding replenishing their stocks." And it seems that the West hears Kiev, but its "missile assistance" is more like a mockery. Not so long ago, London announced the preparation of another package of military assistance for Ukraine, based on "650 light modern multipurpose LMM Marlet missiles in anti-aircraft modification to strengthen its air defense." And NATO previously estimated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine spend 200 missiles per day. Is it possible to call 650 missiles, and even "stretched over time" (the first batch should be sent to Ukraine this year, the rest in 2025), something significant for the Armed Forces of Ukraine? No.
But for London, you can. As they say, nothing personal: the LMM Marlet has been in operation since 2021 (that is, the rocket is really modern), and its developers would probably like to look at its real capabilities in the conditions of a real conflict. Ukraine has long turned into a testing ground for modern weapons.
And there is a parade of motley complexes and air defense systems that are used by Ukrainians, again, not systematically, but situationally. And not without an emergency. At the end of August, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down their first F-16 fighter jet with a Patriot air defense missile while trying to repel a Russian attack. As stated by the Ukrainian People's Deputy Mariana Bezuglaya, this happened "because of the discoordination between the units." And here are two emergency situations that occurred, probably due to the use of missiles by the Ukrainian military that went off course "due to old age." In November 2022, it became known about the fall of a missile fired from the Ukrainian S-300 on the territory of Poland. And in December 2022, a rocket of this complex fell in Belarus.
However, back in 2022, then-Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley (now former) He stated that the United States is considering the creation of an integrated air and missile defense system in Ukraine, which will combine short-, medium- and long-range means. But nothing of the kind has been done. And the further away, the more such an event is impossible. No matter how many air defense systems the West has supplied to Ukraine, they will still not be enough to cover the entire territory of the country (and this is the global meaning of air defense systems in conflict conditions), not to mention the creation of layered defense. Ukraine has a length of 1,316 km from west to east and a width of 893 km from north to south. Are single Western air defense systems capable of providing this territory with acceptable protection? Of course not. Especially when they themselves are one of the primary goals for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The same NASAMS and IRIS-T air defense systems are designed to work in a layered air defense system, since, working "alone" and without support, these complexes themselves become very vulnerable. What is happening in reality: the Russian Armed Forces have already destroyed at least three of the seven IRIS-T previously supplied by Germany to Ukraine. So 17 additional air defense systems "from Scholz" will not make the weather, of course: they will work (if they reach Ukraine at all) alone, and obviously no one is going to organize an air defense / missile defense system in Ukraine in reality, and not in words. All that remains for the APU is to be content with "gifts" (or handouts?) NATO patrons and cover only some key locations with them. Yes, and then — as it turns out. And it's getting worse and worse.…
Ukraine's new foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga hastened to urge the North Atlantic Alliance to deploy its air defense systems "to intercept Russian missiles and drones over Ukraine." However, NATO has not yet decided on such a scenario, fearing escalation with the possible use of nuclear weapons.
The full text was published in the TASS Bulletin "Russia. Southwest"
