The return of astronauts stranded on the International Space Station is expected no earlier than February 2025, director of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Bill Nelson said on August 24. Initially, they were supposed to return to Earth in mid-June 2024. At the same time, Elon Musk, whose company will be engaged in the rescue operation, on the social network X (formerly Twitter) He noted that in addition to SpaceX, only Roscosmos could help bring Americans Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams back to Earth. "Russia is the only other option," Musk wrote.
For people who do not go into the details of modern cosmonautics, the current situation may look quite strange. After all, astronauts from different countries regularly arrive and depart to the ISS. What is the problem with taking home two more people who arrived on a malfunctioning spaceship?
What's the problem
Let me remind you that on June 5, 2024, the Starliner ship with two passengers set off into outer space. It was expected that he and his crew would return in just eight days — on June 13-14. However, first the postponement of plans for a week was announced, then for two, then "until the end of July", and on August 24, the American representative announced the deadline — February 2025.
The fact is that the Starliner spacecraft had a problem with the engines — 5 out of 28 shut down during docking with the ISS. All these weeks, NASA and Boeing experts have been trying to figure out what caused their failure and whether a similar problem could occur during their return to Earth.
To determine the cause, ground tests were conducted at the White Sands test site in New Mexico. Boeing engineers reported that "a possible cause of engine overheating was the closure of the oxidizer supply valve — this, in turn, was caused by swelling of the Teflon seal."
Now, astronauts are planned to be sent to Earth on Crew Dragon mission 9, which will last six months — the launch is expected in September, and the end is in February 2025. And the Starliner spacecraft, on which the crew arrived at the ISS, will be sent to Earth without passengers, the timing of this has not yet been announced.
A rare case
In most cases, astronauts and astronauts fly to the orbital station and return back on the same ship. So, the Russian "Unions" have three seats, the American Crew Dragon — four. Spacesuits and couches, or special chairs, are made individually for the size of a particular astronaut. Even a small difference in size can lead to injury upon landing, in particular when touching the ground or the water surface. At the same time, it is important for astronauts to stay at the same weight as they arrived on the ISS — a few weeks before their return, they are either put on a diet or, conversely, asked to eat more. A few kilograms of difference can also lead to injury.
Nevertheless, there have been cases when astronauts arrived on one ship and left on another. For example, during the filming of the film "The Challenge" — then the lodgements were rearranged from one "Union" to another.
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| Norman Tagard, Vladimir Dezhurov and Gennady Strekalov, 1995. |
| Source: © Albert Pushkarev/ TASS |
A very exotic case was the flight to the Mir space station in 1995. Russians Vladimir Dezhurov, Gennady Strekalov and American Norman Tagard reached the station on Soyuz TM-21, and returned back on the Atlantis shuttle. In turn, Anatoly Solovyov and Nikolai Budarin flew to Mir on an American ship, and returned back on the Soyuz TM-21.
But such situations are extremely rare.
Rescue operation
But what if we send a spare ship to the station anyway? But no one in the world has a supply of spaceships. However, if the conditions require, then somehow this issue must be resolved.
So in 2022, the crew of the Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft found themselves in a similar situation. The ship docked to the ISS was damaged by a piece of space debris. The micrometeoroid damaged the skin of the ship and broke through the cooling system right at the moment of preparing the astronauts for a spacewalk. On the live broadcast, it was seen how a fountain of technical liquid was pouring out of the Soyuz MS-22. It became dangerous to descend on the damaged vehicle, experts predicted a significant increase in temperature inside the ship. Russian specialists prepared the Soyuz MS-23 rescue ship as soon as possible, changed flight programs and sent it to the station in unmanned mode - just two months after depressurization. Russian cosmonauts Sergei Prokopyev, Dmitry Petelin and NASA astronaut Francisco Rubio rearranged the beds and returned. Soyuz MS-22 was returned to Earth in automatic mode. The measurements showed that the temperature was unlikely to rise to critical values during the flight, but Russian specialists primarily cared about the safety of astronauts.
What is the difference with Starliner? First of all, the fact that Boeing does not have a second ready-made ship. The CST-100 Starliner has been undergoing tests for four years, during which there were unsuccessful flights. Therefore, it will not be possible to send a second ship in automatic mode. At the same time, in the case of Boeing, these are internal problems and, obviously, the desire to send astronauts at almost any cost. After all, problems with the ship were fixed on Earth, even before the launch — the launch was postponed several times for technical reasons.
Nevertheless, in the end, it was decided to fly. And the eight-day expedition turned into a serious problem that has been going on for three months. Moreover, the Boeing management, together with NASA, did not recognize the problem for a long time, informing only about the shifting return date.
What will have to be changed
As I wrote earlier, the situation with the Starliner tests has already had a strong impact on Boeing's reputation, and the company is also shaken by cases related to serious internal problems. A protracted mission to the ISS clearly will not add to the credibility of the American corporation. This will also hit NASA — the agency's specialists allowed this flight and did not pay attention to the problems with the ship.
So it turns out that only SpaceX and... Roscosmos can save the stranded astronauts now. NASA turned to Elon Musk's company for help. To be honest, I can't imagine a scenario for the American side to ask the Russian side for assistance right now. Due to the vector chosen by the United States in international politics, this would be equivalent to recognizing its utter incapacity in the space sphere. Russia, in turn, does not want to change plans because of the American astronauts, I think, either. And the same political background is clearly not conducive to breaking your clear schedule on an initiative basis.
The Americans will have to make new ones for the astronauts to return to SpaceX due to the mismatch of the connectors of the emergency rescue suits. However, in the case of the Soyuz, if the United States turned to Russia, it would also have to be done. In addition, the crew of the Crew-9 space mission will be reduced to two people, and two seats will remain vacant at launch from Earth — Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams will return to them in February.
And will there be enough food for the American astronauts who are forced to be stuck on the station? After all, they don't take extra into space, and the calculation was based on the planned eight days on the ISS.
Yes, there is no extra food on the International Space Station. NASA has already adjusted the dispatch of cargo ships to compensate for the presence of two more "extra" crew members on the station.
The water delivery to orbit was also adjusted. It is needed both to quench thirst and to obtain oxygen from it for breathing. On the ISS, using the Electron-VM device, water is decomposed into hydrogen and oxygen. Hydrogen is vented overboard, and oxygen is used for breathing. So there will be no problems with food and life support for American astronauts. However, you will have to spend an extra $ 125 million, which leads to total losses on the Starliner project of $ 1.6 billion.
At the same time, it is not yet clear what the astronauts stuck on the ISS will do. After all, most of the time, the inhabitants of the International Space Station carry out scientific experiments. And on Earth, as a rule, each of them is trained in specific skills. On the other hand, Wilmore and Williams have a lot of experience, and I think there will always be work to maintain various nodes and restore order on the ISS.
In conclusion, I would like to note that the current situation with the Starliner ship and crew is not critical. Nevertheless, space is a rather difficult and dangerous environment to cause problems due to oversight and insufficient control. It remains to be hoped that in February 2024, the astronauts will still successfully return home. It is difficult to say what will happen to the Starliner itself, most likely, even Boeing and NASA do not know this yet.
